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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $17.10EOD only
Max Pain
$17.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.96
5.6% from close
Price Gap
-0.10
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
0.50
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
SOFI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

SOFI pre-earnings: 35 days out, IV elevated, bullish flow. 80% beat rate supports positive bias.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Unusual put at $18.5 Jul10 and high VIX add risk; bullish flow and historical beat rate favor upside.
📊80% beat rate supports bullish sentiment.
🛡️Unusual put at $18.5: hedging or bearish bet?
📈Net premium +$10.6M, P/C vol 0.33: aggressive bullish flow.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 69,314 (13.2% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-28 (35 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (3d): ±$0.85 (4.9%)
  • 2026-07-02 (9d): ±$1.31 (7.5%)
  • 2026-07-10 (17d): ±$1.70 (9.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Earnings expiration (35d) IV elevated; upward sloping term structure. Front-end IV high.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV crush likely 30-40% given front-end levels.

Skew: Put skew moderate; unusual put at $18.5 shows elevated IV 53.7%. P/C OI ratio 0.50 neutral-bullish.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not quantified; 80% beat rate implies moves often exceed implied.

Directional bias: Bullish based on 80% beat rate and current flow.

Key Levels

1$15.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $16.44/$18.15; 1w $15.99/$18.60
3Max pain pins: $17 (2026-06-26); $18 (2026-07-02); $17 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put: SOFI 2026-07-10 $18.5 Put, vol 209 vs OI 125 (1.7x), IV 53.7%.

Hedging or bearish positioning near resistance $18.99; but overall flow bullish (P/C vol 0.33).

Strategies

Call Calendar
Sell 2026-07-17 $19.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $19.00 call
Debit: $0.69-$0.85
Max loss: $0.85
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if SOFI breaks below $17 support; roll if IV expands further.
Upward sloping term structure and bullish flow favor; front-end IV high for premium; long leg captures upside.
Outperforms: Sell near-term call, buy later call to profit from rising IV and directional move.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-31 $15.00 put + sell $21.00 call
Credit: $0.81-$0.98
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $0.98
BE: 14.02 / 21.98
Trigger: Monitor unusual put activity; consider closing if SOFI approaches wings.
High IV and expected crush; but unusual put adds risk; unlimited loss.
Outperforms: Sell OTM put and call to collect premium from IV crush.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-31 $16.00/$14.50 put wing and $20.00/$22.00 call wing
Credit: $0.73-$0.90
Max loss: $1.10
Max gain: $0.90
BE: 15.10 / 20.90
Trigger: Adjust if price threatens wings; illiquid so use limit orders. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (123%).
Lower liquidity; defined risk; but less flexible than calendar; IV crush tailwind.
Outperforms: Sell call and put spreads to profit from range and IV contraction.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!High VIX (19.5) amplifies IV swings.
!35 days to earnings; IV may expand further.
!Key support $17 (max pain), resistance $18.99; call wall $20-$25 caps upside.
!Unusual put activity signals potential downside hedging.

What to Watch

?Earnings 2026-07-28: guidance key.
?Price action around $17 pinning.
?Unusual put at $18.5 Jul10: follow-up volume.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.