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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $17.71EOD only
Max Pain
$15.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.77
4.3% from close
Price Gap
-2.71
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.48
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 16, 2026 close
SOFI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

SOFI 41d to Q2 earnings. Bullish flow but elevated IV; 80% beat rate. Spot near $18 resistance, pinning gamma at $17-18. Unusual put hedging near ATM.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 16.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Mixed signals: bullish flow & high beat rate vs elevated IV & near-term put walls. IV crush expected if stock holds.
⚠️Put wall at $18-$18.5 with 77k OI just below spot; high pinning risk.
📈80% historical beat rate & bullish flow may support positive drift.
📊IV crush expect ~35% if stock moves less than ±8% on earnings.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 77,567 (13.9% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-28 (41 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (1d): ±$0.59 (3.4%)
  • 2026-06-26 (9d): ±$1.32 (7.6%)
  • 2026-07-02 (15d): ±$1.71 (9.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated: 1d IV ~60%, 1w ~57%, 2w ~55%. Backwardation into event.

Crush estimate: Estimated 30-40% IV crush post-earnings based on typical move vs current implied.

Skew: Put skew elevated near term; notable put OI at $18 & $18.5 for weekly expiry.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Avg move ~|8.2%| vs expected ~7.6% (1w), slightly higher.

Directional bias: No clear directional bias; last 4 beats had mixed reactions.

Key Levels

1$15.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $16.83/$18.01; 1w $16.10/$18.75
3Max pain pins: $15 (2026-06-18); $17 (2026-06-26); $17 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Massive put buying at $18 & $18.5 for Jun18; vol/OI >7.

Hedging or bearish bets at key resistance $18.

Large OTM call volume at $19 for Jun18; vol 55k, OI 23k.

Speculative upside bets or short squeeze positioning.

Strategies

Iron Condor at Pins
Sell 2026-06-26 $17.50/$16.50 put wing and $18.50/$19.50 call wing
Credit: $0.52-$0.63
Max loss: $0.37
Max gain: $0.63
BE: 16.87 / 19.13
Trigger: Set stop loss if spot gaps beyond $16.50 or $19.50; close early if IV crushes.
Best fit given gamma pinning at $17-18 and rich IV; limited expected move reduces risk.
Outperforms: Sells put and call wings to capture premium from elevated IV while betting spot stays near $18.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Long strangle
Buy 2026-08-21 $15.00 put + buy $20.00 call
Debit: $1.66-$2.02
Max loss: $2.02
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 12.98 / 22.02
Uncertain direction; avg move ~8.2%, but IV crush post-earnings favors defined-risk long vol? Elevated IV may offset. Use post-earnings expiry.
Outperforms: Buy cheap strangle straddling expected move; capture large post-earnings swing.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Bull call spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $18.00/$20.00 call spread
Debit: $0.63-$0.76
Max loss: $0.76
Max gain: $1.24
BE: $18.76
Unusual call flow at $19 & $21; spot pinned near $18 resistance; bullish gamma if break higher.
Outperforms: Buy $18/$20 call spread; bet on earnings upside above resistance.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Elevated IV premium may erode quickly if stock stays within range.
!Gamma pinning at $17-$18 could trap spot; break above $18 may trigger short covering.
!Large put OI at $18-$18.5 could act as resistance if tested.
!Macro headwinds: SPY -1.25%, QQQ -1.01%, VIX 18.4, risk-off tilt.

What to Watch

?Spot action relative to $17 (gamma flip) & $18 (put wall).
?IV behavior: collapse early reduces earnings risk.
?Unusual call flow at $19 & $21 for longer expirations.
?Broad market direction: VIX above 18 suggests elevated fear.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.