thetaOwl
HomeOptionsSOFIReports

SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $17.31EOD only
Max Pain
$17.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.80
4.7% from close
Price Gap
-0.31
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
4
Low premium
P/C OI
0.50
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
SOFI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings 2026-07-28, 33 days out. 80% beat rate, strong bullish flow ($6.6M net premium), gamma pinning at $18. High confidence setup.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Bullish flow and gamma pinning suggest upward bias toward $18 max pain.
🐂Unusual $6 calls signal long-term bullish conviction
⚠️Gamma flip at $15 is key downside risk level

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,043 (13.3% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-28 (33 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (1d): ±$0.52 (3.0%)
  • 2026-07-02 (7d): ±$1.15 (6.7%)
  • 2026-07-10 (15d): ±$1.63 (9.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated, backwardated: 1d IV 50%+ vs 7d/15d lower per move %.

Crush estimate: ~50-60% post-event after 1d move

Skew: Call skew elevated due to heavy call OI at $17.5, $18; put skew moderate.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Beat rate 80% suggests positive reaction tendency

Directional bias: Bullish (flow + beat rate)

Key Levels

1$15.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $16.78/$17.82; 1w $16.14/$18.45
3Max pain pins: $18 (2026-06-26); $18 (2026-07-02); $17 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Large volume in SOFI 2026-07-02 $17.50 Call (7,918 vol, 1.9x OI) and 2026-06-26 $17.00 Put (27,843 vol).

Pinning activity around $17-$17.5, aligning with max pain $18.

Unusual deep OTM SOFI 2026-10-16 $6 Call (1,081 vol, 2.1x OI) at 114% IV.

Long-term bullish bet, possibly institutional.

Strategies

Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-31 $17.50/$18.00 call spread
Debit: $0.21-$0.26
Max loss: $0.26
Max gain: $0.24
BE: $17.76
Trigger: Close at 50% gain or hold through earnings; exit if spot breaks $15.67 invalidation.
Best alignment with gamma pin at $18 and bullish flow; low cost, defined risk.
Outperforms: Buy $17.5/$18 call spread, benefiting from pinning and beat-rate upside.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-07-31 $15.00 put + buy $20.00 call
Debit: $0.95-$1.17
Max loss: $1.17
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 13.83 / 21.17
Trigger: Needs a 1-2 standard deviation move to profit; adjust or close before earnings for volatility crush.
High beat rate supports move, but IV crush risk and cost make lowest rank.
Outperforms: Buy $15 put and $20 call; captures large moves but expensive in high IV.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-02 $18.50 call / buy 2026-07-31 $18.00 call
Debit: $0.87-$1.06
Max loss: $1.06
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Bullish flow, gamma pinning at $18, high beat rate support upside; front-end IV elevated vs back-month.
Outperforms: Sell rich front-end IV pre-earnings, own back-month call to capture bullish earnings skew and term premium.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!High vol regime (VIX 19) could amplify moves
!Gamma flip at $15 if spot declines sharply
!IV crush after earnings; short-options risk

What to Watch

?Spot relative to $17.5 resistance and $18 max pain
?EM guardrails: 2d $16.78-$17.82; 1w $16.14-$18.45
?Any shift in put/call OI ratio or net premium flow
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.