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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $17.91EOD only
Max Pain
$17.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.14
6.4% from close
Price Gap
-0.91
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
90
High premium
P/C OI
0.48
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
SOFI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

SOFI earnings setup bullish with strong flow, 80% beat rate, but spot far from max pain poses risk

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 19.4% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: Bullish net premium $24.8M; heavy put activity at $17.5 indicates hedging near max pain
⚠️Bullish flow but heavy put hedging suggests caution

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 77,341 (16.2% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-28 (40 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (8d): ±$1.14 (6.4%)
  • 2026-07-02 (14d): ±$1.52 (8.5%)
  • 2026-07-10 (22d): ±$1.92 (10.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep contango: 8d ±6.4%, 14d ±8.5%, 22d ±10.7%

Crush estimate: Moderate to high, expect 30-40% IV contraction post-earnings

Skew: Call skew elevated from bullish flow; put skew subdued

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 80% beat rate; avg move ~5.5% vs implied ~8%

Directional bias: Slight bullish due to beat rate and flow

Key Levels

1$15.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $16.77/$19.05
3Max pain pins: $15 (2026-06-18); $17 (2026-06-26); $18 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Heavy put activity at $17.5 (0dte) vol/oi 3.1, IV 31%

Hedging or pinning near max pain

Strategies

Balanced Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $16.50/$16.00 put wing and $19.50/$20.00 call wing
Credit: $0.08-$0.10
Max loss: $0.40
Max gain: $0.10
BE: 16.40 / 19.60
Trigger: Close at 50% profit or near expiration to avoid gap risk.
Defined risk, aligns with 80% beat rate and call wall at $20; downside protection near max pain.
Outperforms: Sell put/call wings around max pain and resistance to profit from low volatility.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Premium Short Strangle
Sell 2026-06-26 $16.50 put + sell $19.50 call
Credit: $0.22-$0.26
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $0.26
BE: 16.24 / 19.76
Trigger: Roll untested side if tested; close at 50% profit.
Steep contango offers high credit; 80% beat rate supports probability but unlimited risk requires caution.
Outperforms: Collects premium from high implied IV with wide strikes.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-06-26 $19.50 call / buy 2026-07-02 $19.50 call
Debit: $0.11-$0.14
Max loss: $0.14
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if short strike breached near expiration.
Benefits from contango and directional upside bias; lower net debit but limited profit potential.
Outperforms: Sell near-term call, buy later-term call to exploit time decay difference.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings miss risk (20% historical miss rate)
!IV crush if no surprise
!Spot 19% above max pain could drag lower
!Call OI wall $20-25 caps upside

What to Watch

?Earnings 7/28 and near-term max pain $15-18
?VIX at 16 supports elevated IV
?Unusual put flow $13 Jul10 and $17.5 today
?Call OI concentration at $20
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.