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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $17.29EOD only
Max Pain
$17.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.85
5.0% from close
Price Gap
-0.29
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
0.50
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 23, 2026 close
SOFI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

SOFI earnings in 34 days; historical beat rate 80% supports bullish bias. IV inverted near-term. Spot above max pain $17. Call-heavy flow with unusual put hedging at $18. High uncertainty.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Beat rate and flow bias bullish, but near-term put hedging at $18 warrants caution.
📈80% beat rate supports bullish earnings view
⚠️Unusual put activity at $18 suggests hedging
📉IV term structure inverted; near-term premiums elevated

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,071 (13.3% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-28 (34 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (2d): ±$0.80 (4.7%)
  • 2026-07-02 (8d): ±$1.33 (7.7%)
  • 2026-07-10 (16d): ±$1.78 (10.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Downward sloping; 2d IV ~53%, 16d ~41%

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV crush ~20-30% (typical)

Skew: Put skew elevated at $18 strike; heavy put volume on Jun26 expiry

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves align with expected; beat rate 80%

Directional bias: Bullish (80% beat rate)

Key Levels

1$15.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $16.50/$18.11; 1w $15.98/$18.64
3Max pain pins: $17 (2026-06-26); $18 (2026-07-02); $17 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put volume: 17.1k contracts at $18 Put Jun26 (OI 4.6k)

Bearish positioning or hedging near current price

Strategies

Bullish Calendar
Sell 2026-06-26 $18.00 call / buy 2026-07-02 $18.00 call
Debit: $0.22-$0.26
Max loss: $0.26
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if SOFI drops below $17; set stop at 50% loss.
Aligned with 80% beat rate and downward-sloping IV term structure; limited risk.
Outperforms: Sell near-term call, buy later call to profit from time decay and IV decline.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Range Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $17.00/$16.50 put wing and $18.00/$18.50 call wing
Credit: $0.19-$0.23
Max loss: $0.27
Max gain: $0.23
BE: 16.77 / 18.23
Trigger: Close if SOFI breaches $15 or $20; take partial profits at 50%.
High IV supports premium selling; defined risk between support and resistance.
Outperforms: Sell out-of-the-money put and call credit spreads to capture time decay.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings miss risk (20% historical miss rate)
!Gamma flip at $15 (large put OI)
!IV crush can erode premium if no move

What to Watch

?$18 resistance and put hedging
?$17 max pain pin
?$15 gamma flip level
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.