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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $17.13EOD only
Max Pain
$15.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.82
4.8% from close
Price Gap
-2.13
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.48
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 15, 2026 close
SOFI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

SOFI 80% beat rate bullish, 42d to earnings; near-term gamma pinning at $17, put protection at $17.5. IV contango, crush risk post-earnings.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 18.1% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: Heavy $17.5 put buying before 6/18 suggests hedging/bearish near-term; call buying at $18/$19 points to upside post-earnings.
⚠️Heavy $17.50 put buying (6.7x OI) suggests downside protection or bearish bet.
📈Call skew bullish with $18 call buying and $20-$25 OI wall.
🔮Earnings 42d away; IV contango offers premium but crush risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 77,594 (15.3% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-28 (42 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (2d): ±$0.76 (4.3%)
  • 2026-06-26 (10d): ±$1.35 (7.7%)
  • 2026-07-02 (16d): ±$1.71 (9.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Contango: near-term IV ~55%, Jul31 IV ~65%, earnings expected move ~9.7% in 16d.

Crush estimate: Moderate crush post-earnings; IV may drop from ~65% to ~45%.

Skew: Call-skewed with heavy call OI at $20-$25 wall and put floor at $15.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 80% beat rate (4/5).

Directional bias: Mildly bullish given high beat rate.

Key Levels

1$15.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $16.94/$18.47; 1w $16.35/$19.06
3Max pain pins: $15 (2026-06-18); $17 (2026-06-26); $17 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put buying 2026-06-18 $17.50: 20,685 vol vs 3,091 OI (6.7x).

Hedging or bearish bet near expiration.

Aggressive call buying 2026-06-26 $18: 20,347 vol vs 12,538 OI.

Bullish sentiment targeting $18 resistance.

Deep OTM call 2026-10-16 $6: 1,158 vol, IV 131.6%.

Speculative long-term bullish bet.

Strategies

Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $18.00/$19.00 call spread
Debit: $0.35-$0.42
Max loss: $0.42
Max gain: $0.58
BE: $18.42
Trigger: Exit if SOFI breaks below $16 invalidation.
Best aligns with upside bias from call buying, limited risk, avoids IV crush.
Outperforms: Defined-risk bullish play targeting $19 by Aug21.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-02 $16.00/$15.00 put wing and $18.00/$19.00 call wing
Credit: $0.40-$0.49
Max loss: $0.51
Max gain: $0.49
BE: 15.51 / 18.49
Trigger: Close if volatility expands or breaks wings.
Captures premium with defined risk, suits range-bound expectation from beat rate.
Outperforms: Profits if SOFI stays between $15-$18 by Jul2.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-02 $16.00 put + sell $18.00 call
Credit: $0.87-$1.07
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $1.07
BE: 14.93 / 19.07
Trigger: Set stop-loss if SOFI breaches $15 or $19.
Highest premium but unlimited risk; only if confident in limited move.
Outperforms: Collects premium from high IV and contango.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Long strangle
Buy 2026-08-21 $16.00 put + buy $18.00 call
Debit: $2.64-$3.22
Max loss: $3.22
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 12.78 / 21.22
Wider strikes reduce cost
Outperforms: Cheaper vol play for earnings
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Broader market weakness (SPY -0.6%, QQQ -1.9%).
!Gamma flip if spot drops below $15 support.
!IV crush on near-term options without catalyst.

What to Watch

?June 18 expiry pinning at $15 max pain.
?June 26 and July 2 expiries with $17 max pain.
?Earnings July 28 for volatility expansion.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.