Earnings Verdict
SOFI bullish flow with call skew, pinned near $16 max pain. Earnings 75d out but near-term IV elevated.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 VIX 17
Most important: Call OI wall $17-$24 and put floor $15-$15 indicate upside bias.
🛡️$15 put floor: 79k OI below spot
📈$17-$24 call wall: upside resistance
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 79,189 (6.4% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-07-28 (75 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-05-15 (1d): ±$0.38 (2.4%)
- 2026-05-22 (8d): ±$0.96 (6.0%)
- 2026-05-29 (15d): ±$1.31 (8.2%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Steep: 1d ±2.4%, 8d ±6.0%, 15d ±8.2%
Crush estimate: N/A until July; near-term IV elevated
Skew: Call skew dominates; $16 calls heavily traded
Historical Context
Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: 80% beat rate; implied moves high
Directional bias: Bullish (flow and GEX pinning)
Key Levels
1$15.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $15.64/$16.41; 1w $15.06/$16.99
3Max pain pins: $16 (2026-05-15); $16 (2026-05-22); $16 (2026-05-29)
Flow Highlights
Massive $16 call vol 41k vs OI 22k, aggressive buying near max pain
Bullish sentiment, pinning at $16
$15.50 call sweep 21k vol, 2.6x OI
Call buying above spot, bullish bias
Strategies
Risk Assessment
!Gamma flip at $15; put OI 79k below spot
!High IV decay if spot holds
What to Watch
?$16 pin break or hold
?$17 resistance; put floor $15