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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $15.69EOD only
Max Pain
$15.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.59
3.8% from close
Price Gap
-0.19
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
38
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.52
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
SOFI Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias supported by strong positive GEX ($56.9M), bullish flow, and spot above MP ($16 pin). High vol and gamma flip risk at $15 warrant caution, but pinning dynamics favor upside drift into weekly expiry.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive pinning; +0.5 spot 1.2% above MP; +1 VIX 17 support.
Supports: GEX +56.9M, DEX +109.1M shares, bullish flow, pinning at $16, VIX moderate 17.4.
Conflicts: High vol regime, gamma flip at $15 (4.4% below), resistance at $16.28 (2d EM).
📈Bullish flow + gamma pinning at $16 support drift higher.
⚠️High vol and $15 gamma flip pose downside risk if spot breaks support.
🎯Max pain $16 aligns with dealer hedging, adding to upside bias.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated vs typical, reflecting event risk (weekly expiries). VIX 17.4 supports moderate premium.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive GEX $56.9M, strong pinning near $16 for 5/22 expiry. Gamma flip ~$15.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Net premium positive, call-heavy flows dominate, indicating bullish positioning.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot $15.69, 1.9% below MP $16; above gamma charm levels, pinning bias intact.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term pinning dynamics and weekly expiry (5/22) create event-specific opportunity. Broader ranges extend to 2 weeks but driven by expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$15.10$16.28
Range $15.10-$16.28; pinning supports grind toward $16 resistance.
Next 1 week
$14.68$16.70
Range $14.68-$16.70; breakout above $16 opens $16.28-$16.70.
Next 2 weeks
$14.31$17.06
Range $14.31-$17.06; gamma flip risk at $15 caps downside, but high vol creates two-way risk.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $16 (2026-05-22); $16 (2026-05-29); $16 (2026-06-05)
EM guardrails: 2d $15.10/$16.28; 1w $14.68/$16.70
Support: $15.50 · $15.00 · $14.31
Resistance: $16.50 · $17.06
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 80,341 (4.4% below spot)
Structural: Max pain $16 across all expiries (5/22, 5/29, 6/5). EM guardrails: 2d $15.10/$16.28; 1w $14.68/$16.70. Support: $15.5, $15.0, $14.31. Resistance: $16.5, $17.06. Gamma flip ~$15 based on put OI concentration.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+56.9M

DEX: +109.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$15 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 80,341 (4.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$56.9M (positive gamma, pinning). DEX +109.1M shares (long delta). Gamma flip ~$15 (approximate).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated (75-85%) vs VIX 17.4, rich relative to historical. Implies expected move of ~4% by expiry; moderate premium for event risk.

Term structure: Backwardation into 5/22 expiry, with elevated front-week skew. 6/5 term flattens; event kink at weekly expiries.

Skew: Put skew elevated near $15 (gamma flip); calls relatively cheap. Opportunity: selling out-of-the-money puts below $15 or call spreads $17/$18.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Positive $5.46M net premium, P/C vol ratio 0.35 (call-heavy), strong bullish bias.

Directional prints: 52.5 call 14.5 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 4.5:1, aggressive buying; likely bought opening, bullish.

Unusual: 73.4 put 12.5 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 4.1:1, thin premium; likely sold (bearish hedge) or speculative; neutral read.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $15 triggers dealer hedging reversal
!High vol regime can amplify moves both ways
!Unexpected macro catalyst (earnings, news)

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-12 $16.00/$17.00 call spread
Why now: Strong GEX and bullish flow support upside; spread limits premium outlay and risk.
Limited upside if spot fails to rally; theta decay works against long leg.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-06-12 $15.00/$14.00 put spread
Why now: Bullish bias and high vol favor premium sale; $15 support tested but holds.
Gamma flip at $15 could trigger sharp reversal if support breaks.
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-05 $16.50/$18.00 call spread
Why now: Positive GEX and call flow support upside. Limited risk.
Max loss if below long strike; max gain if above short strike.
Bullish risk reversalModerate
Buy 2026-06-26 $17.50 call / sell 2026-06-26 $14.00 put
Why now: Bullish bias and high put IV premium; defined put risk.
Uncapped call upside; put short tail risk if drop.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-12 $16.00/$17.00 call spread
Buy $16/$17 call spread for defined bullish exposure.
Why this play: Strong bullish flow and GEX support upside; spread limits risk.
Debit: $0.31-$0.38
Max loss: $0.38
BE: $16.38
Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or if spot below $15.50.
Mildly bullish traders seeking capped risk.
#2
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-12 $15.00/$14.00 put spread
Sell $15/$14 put spread to collect premium with high probability.
Why this play: High vol premiums and bullish bias favor selling put spread.
Credit: $0.24-$0.30
Max loss: $0.70
BE: $14.70
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit or if spot drops near $15.50.
Traders wanting to earn premium with defined risk.
#3
Bullish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-06-26 $17.50 call / sell 2026-06-26 $14.00 put
Buy $17.50 call, sell $14 put for leveraged bullish bet.
Why this play: Unlimited upside potential with high put IV; defined put risk.
Debit: $0.05-$0.07
Max loss: $14.00
BE: $14.00
Mgmt: Monitor delta; roll if put side becomes too risky.
Aggressive bullish traders comfortable with defined put risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf SOFI holds above $15.50 and rallies above $16, then enter. → Buy the 2026-06-12 $16/$17 call spread (strat_bull_call) for 0.31-0.38.
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIf SOFI drops to $15.50, then reduce size. → Close 50% of the bull call spread or put credit spread to manage risk.
Exit Triggers
EXITIf SOFI breaks below $15.00, then exit all bullish positions. → Close all open bullish spreads and risk reversal.

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias on strong GEX and flow. Key support $15.50; gamma flip at $15. Enter on hold above $15.50 with bull call spread. Manage at $15.50 drop; exit below $15.00. Duration: next 1-2 weeks lean bullish.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.