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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $15.23EOD only

Max Pain

$16.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.70

4.6% from close

Price Gap

+0.77

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.52

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

SOFI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

SOFI downside bias below $16 MP; negative GEX amplifies moves toward $15 support. Bullish flow conflicts, volatility elevated.

Confidence:

3.5 / 10

Base 5; -1 flow/price conflict, -1 spot 5.4% below MP, +0.5 VIX 18.43. No further override.

Supports: Bullish call flow, high VIX, $15 flip support.
Conflicts: Negative GEX trending, spot below MP, market weakness.

📉Neg GEX -24.4M, flip ~$15 amplifies downside.

📌Spot 5.4% below $16 MP; pinning could pull higher.

⚠️Bullish flow vs weak price; caution on longs.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated vs typical amid SPY/QQQ sell-off.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Neg GEX -24.4M; flip ~$15, trending regime.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish call flow but spot weakening suggests absorption.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot 5.4% below $16 MP, near gamma flip $15.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Persistent high vol and neg GEX without single event; correction until flip or pin.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$14.76$16.45

Range 14.76-16.45; bias lower on neg GEX.

Next 2 weeks

$14.41$16.81

Range 14.41-16.81; test $15 support.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $16 (2026-05-15); $16 (2026-05-22); $16 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 1w $14.76/$16.45

Support: $15.00 · $14.41

Resistance: $16.50 · $16.81 · $17.00

Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 79,664 (3.9% below spot)

Structural: Support $15 (gamma flip), $14.41. Resistance $16 (MP), $16.45, $16.81.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-24.4M

DEX: +112.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$15 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 79,664 (3.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -24.4M, DEX +112.1M shares, flip ~$15 (79,664 put OI 3.9% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 18.43; premium expensive for hedging.

Term structure: Likely backwardated short-term; no term data.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider put credit spreads at $15 flip.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $5.8M, but put volume (27.7k) far exceeds call volume (~5k), suggesting hedging or bearish positioning.

Directional prints: 52.9 call 16.5 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 2.9, high relative to open interest. Likely aggressive call buying. 47.3 put 15 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 2.6, elevated put volume. Possibly hedging or bearish speculation. 68.3 call 16 OTM 2027-01-15 — Vol/OI 1.7, long-dated call with high IV. Bullish positioning for 2027.

Unusual: 52.9 call 16.5 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 2.9, 5069 vol vs 1725 OI. New call buying, likely bullish. 47.3 put 15 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 2.6, 27674 vol vs 10829 OI. Active put trading, may be hedging or bearish. 74.2 call 13.5 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 2.5, deep ITM call with high IV (74%). Unusual strike/expiry, possible spread.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $15 gamma flip triggers aggressive selling.

!Market recovery squeezes shorts given +112M DEX.

!Bullish flow materializes, reversing downside.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-18 $16.00/$15.00 put spread Why now: Net call premium $5.8M but put volume 27.7k far exceeds call volume suggests hedging/bearish positioning. High put IV supports bearish defined-risk debit spread.	Stock rallies above $16 negating bear thesis; market recovery squeezes shorts given +112M DEX.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-12 $16.00 put Why now: Near-term bearish flow and high put volume relative to calls; long put captures downside convexity.	Stock rallies above $16 on bullish flow; time decay if move doesn't materialize quickly.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-06-18 $16.00/$15.00 put spread

Captures downside from $16 to $15 with capped risk, leveraging negative GEX and high put volume.

Why this play: Outranks long put due to lower cost and defined risk, better suited for elevated IV and near-term bearish bias.

Debit: $0.46-$0.57

Max loss: $0.57

BE: $15.43

Mgmt: Exit at $15 target or if SOFI reclaims $16.50.

Traders seeking defined risk bearish exposure with cost efficiency.

Long Put

Buy 2026-06-12 $16.00 put

Direct bearish bet on SOFI below $16, benefiting from downside momentum.

Why this play: Offers unlimited upside to downside, but higher cost and convexity; less efficient than spread for this setup.

Debit: $0.99-$1.22

Max loss: $1.22

BE: $14.78

Mgmt: Consider taking profits on weakness; cut if above $16.50.

Aggressive traders expecting a sharp drop.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF SOFI breaks below $16.00 support and the $16/$15 bear put spread (SOFI_BEAR_PUT_001) is bid at $0.46–$0.57 → THEN buy the 2026-06-18 $16.00/$15.00 put spread for up to $0.57 debit.

IFIF SOFI drops sharply below $16.00 with high momentum and the $16 long put (SOFI_LONG_PUT_001) is offered at $0.99–$1.22 → THEN buy the 2026-06-12 $16.00 put for up to $1.22.

Exit Triggers

EXITIF SOFI trades at or below $15.00 (gamma flip level) → THEN exit bear put spread for max gain or take profits on long put; scale up new shorts only if $15 fails.

EXITIF SOFI reclaims $16.50 (invalidation level) → THEN close all bearish positions immediately.

Tactical Summary

SOFI downside bias below $16 MP with negative GEX. Key support $15 (gamma flip), resistance $16.45. Use bear put spread for defined risk or long put for convexity. Entry on break of $16; exit on $15 hit or $16.50 reclaim.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.