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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $17.74EOD only
Max Pain
$17.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.86
4.9% from close
Price Gap
-0.74
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
71
High premium
P/C OI
0.49
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 2, 2026 close
SOFI Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

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You are viewing an older report from April 17, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Mildly bullish: dealers’ positive GEX and sustained call-buy flow create compressive pinning pressure centered at $17 but current spot (~$19) is being held above MP by buy flow and concentrated call OI, so expect consolidation between $18.25–$20.6 with upside skew while expiries remain intact.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Confidence driven by large +GEX, net call buying and concentrated short-dated call OI resisting downside; reduced by spot distance from MP and IV sensitivity to expiries.
Supports: Dealer +GEX, net call-buy flow, concentrated short-dated call OI acting as resistance cap and liquidity sink.
Conflicts: Spot ~14% above MP and gamma flip near $15; abrupt market sell-off could overwhelm dealer hedges.
📌Max-pain at $17 creates pin pressure but current call-buy flow keeps spot above MP.
🔺Heavy short-dated call OI plus +GEX supports upside compression toward upper guardrail.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated vs recent history; front-week IV rich ahead of expiries increasing hedging cost.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning/compres­sion regime: sizable positive net GEX with dealers short delta vs concentrated call strikes; gamma flip ~ $15 if spot falls through concentrated put strikes.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Net premium flow skewed to calls (buying) and some put-selling; dealers hedge call exposure by selling delta, which caps upside at heavy call OI strikes and adds downside vulnerability if flow reverses.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot sits above $17 MP; pin pressure exists but active call buying and short-dated call OI provide a floor above MP near $18–$19, explaining why spot may not revert to $17 pre-expiry.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained dealer positioning and repeated call-buy flow keep compression across multiple expiries until expiries or a flow reversal.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$18.25$20.61
Expect $18.25–$20.61 consolidation; short-dated call OI caps sharp rallies.
Next 2 weeks
$16.91$21.96
If call OI rolls or flow reverses, risk of swift move toward gamma flip ~$15.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $17 (2026-04-17); $17 (2026-04-24); $17 (2026-05-01)
EM guardrails: 1w $18.25/$20.61
Support: $16.91
Resistance: $20.00 · $21.96
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 70,926 (22.8% below spot)
Structural: $17 max-pain (near-term expiries); 1w guardrails $18.25/$20.61; support $16.91; gamma flip ≈ $15; resistance concentration at heavy call strikes near $20–21.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+317.3M

DEX: +140.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$15 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 70,926 (22.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net GEX +$317M; dealers long convexity but short delta into heavy short-dated call OI—creates resistance at those calls and requires dynamic hedging that can cap upside or exacerbate downside if flow flips.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: SOFI IV is rich vs VIX baseline—idiosyncratic IV elevated, making directional longs costly and favoring structured/hedged trades.

Term structure: Front-week IV > mid-dated with kinks at weekly expiries and max‑pain dates; elevated near-term skew around expiries.

Skew: Put skew shows concentration below spot; actionable: sell/structured receive trades funded by call spreads or short-dated put wings while managing gamma flip exposure.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Large positive net premium (~32.8M) with low put/call volume (0.38) and OI skew favoring calls—overall bullish flow and positive GEX.

Directional prints: 17.2 put 19.5 ITM 2026-04-17 — ~22.7k same‑day put prints: ambiguous — could be bought puts (bearish) or sell‑to‑open/hedge unwind (bullish). Preferred read leans bullish if fills were S‑2‑O, but trade/clearing side data required to resolve. 56.6 call 21.5 OTM 2026-04-24 — 4.6k call prints into Apr24 with sizable OI — reads as bought calls / bullish directional exposure.

Unusual: 118.8 put 13.5 OTM 2026-04-24 — Extremely high vol/oi (27.4) on deep OTM tiny‑premium puts — likely one‑off speculative buys or sweeps. 6.96 call 2 ITM 2026-05-15 — Low absolute IV (~6.96%), not 696%; elevated vol/oi on tiny‑strike calls suggests low‑liquidity or odd‑lot/spec flow rather than huge implied vol event.

Risks & Catalysts

!Broad-market sell-off overwhelming dealer hedges -> fast drop toward ~$15 gamma flip
!Post-expiry/flow reversal causing IV repricing and directional gap
!Company-specific negative news producing rapid vol spike and gap down

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-01 $17.00/$15.00 put spread
Why now: Mildly bullish flow, call-biased OI and positive GEX favor range-bound upside; defined-risk premium sale benefits from theta and upside pinning.
Rapid broad-market sell-off or company shock causing fast gap below short put strikes.
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-05-08 $20.00/$22.00 call spread
Why now: Concentrated call OI and call-buy flow support limited upside; debit spread reduces theta drag versus long call.
IV repricing post-expiry or large put prints becoming realized downside pressure.
Call diagonalModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-01 $21.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $20.00 call
Why now: Front-month calls rich with ongoing call demand; diagonal captures calendar decay while keeping upside exposure.
Short-dated IV crush or exercise assignment if shares gap above short strikes.

Top Plays

#1
May put‑credit at 17/15
Sell 2026-05-01 $17.00/$15.00 put spread
Sell 5/1 17/15 put spread to collect defined premium; plays for consolidation above ~17–17.5 into expiries.
Why this play: Highest risk‑reward for mild bullish range bias; benefits from positive GEX, call‑heavy OI and theta while capping loss.
Credit: $0.19-$0.24
Max loss: $1.76
BE: $16.76
Mgmt: Close or roll if price dips below 17.25 or IV spikes; trim if premium decays to <25% of max gain.
Traders preferring defined‑risk premium sales and range bias.
#2
Front‑month call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-01 $21.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $20.00 call
Sell 5/1 21 call and buy 6/18 20 call to harvest front‑month decay and remain long skewed upside.
Why this play: Captures rich front‑month call premium while keeping multi‑week upside exposure and calendar edge.
Debit: $1.05-$1.28
Max loss: $1.28
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Buy back short leg before heavy gap risk around expiry or roll out if underlying conforms to upside range.
Traders wanting directional upside with income and IV calendar play.
#3
Debit bull call 20/22
Buy 2026-05-08 $20.00/$22.00 call spread
Buy 5/8 20/22 call spread for capped upside participation with limited theta loss; targets rally into resistance near 22.
Why this play: Specific upside play: market-implied 30‑day move ≈±1.8; skew shows calls richer by ~6 vols vs puts; POP >60% to finish >20. Trigger at 18.8–19.5 for entry; breakeven ~20.6.
Debit: $0.57-$0.70
Max loss: $0.70
BE: $20.70
Mgmt: Take profits at >50% of max gain; cut if price closes <17 or IV jumps >15%.
Traders wanting defined-cost upside exposure when skew favors calls and POP supports small rally.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF SOFI trades between $18.8–$19.5 or shows continued upside flow and front-month IV (30‑day) remains within ±5% of its 10‑day avg → THEN buy 2026-05-08 20/22 bull call spread when fill mid in entry range $0.57–$0.70
IFIF SOFI consolidates above $17 and records ≥3 sessions with closes inside $17–$20.60 (pinning) into front expiry → THEN sell 2026-05-01 17/15 put credit spread collecting $0.19–$0.24
IFIF front-month call premium is rich defined as 30‑day IV rank >65% or call/put IV skew (25Δ call IV ÷ 25Δ put IV) >1.10 for the prior 3 trading days and spot >$19 → THEN establish call diagonal: sell 2026-05-01 21 call / buy 2026-06-18 20 call with net debit in $1.05–$1.28 range
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF price closes < $17.25 or 30‑day IV rises >15% vs its 5‑day avg or broad sell-off begins toward gamma flip ~$15 → THEN close or roll short legs (cut put spread; buy back short calls) to limit loss
ADJIF premium on put credit decays to <25% of max gain → THEN trim/close spread to lock profit
Exit Triggers
EXITIF any defined-risk spread reaches >50% of max gain or price closes < $17 → THEN take profits or cut per strategy management

Tactical Summary

Mildly bullish multi-week: mix defined-risk income (May 1 put credit), defined upside (May 8 bull call), or a call diagonal to harvest front-month decay; defend below $17.25, monitor 30‑day IV vs 5‑day avg, respect gamma flip near $15.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on April 17, 2026.
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