thetaOwl
HomeOptionsSOFIReports

SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $15.90EOD only
Max Pain
$17.00
Next expiry May 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.66
4.2% from close
Price Gap
+1.10
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
45
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.49
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 12, 2026 close
SOFI Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with caution due to negative gamma and spot below MP. Expect upside but risk of reversals near $15.

Confidence:
4 / 10
Base 5 adjusted: -1 GEX/flow contradict, -1 spot 7% from MP, +1 VIX 18. Net 4.
Supports: Bullish flow, positive DEX, trending gamma.
Conflicts: Negative GEX, spot below MP, high vol.
📈Bullish flow with positive DEX
⚠️Negative GEX reversal risk
📊VIX 18 stable vol

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV high, VIX 18, elevated uncertainty.
Gamma Regime
Trending
GEX -$32.6M, short gamma, flip near $15.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish flow, positive DEX, call skew.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot 7% below MP $16, pin risk up.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pin $16 May 15 expiry drives near-term drift up.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$14.76$15.86
Push to $16 MP, gamma flip risk
Next 1 week
$14.29$16.33
Drift to $16.50, support $15
Next 2 weeks
$14.00$16.63
Range $14-$16.63, breakout if clear $16

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $16 (2026-05-15); $16 (2026-05-22); $17 (2026-05-29)
EM guardrails: 2d $14.76/$15.86; 1w $14.29/$16.33
Support: $15.00 · $14.00
Resistance: $16.50 · $16.63
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 78,909 (2.0% below spot)
Structural: Support $15 (gamma flip), $14. Resistance $16.50, $16.63. Max pain $16 May 15/22.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-32.6M

DEX: +113.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$15 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 78,909 (2.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Short gamma -$32.6M, flip $15. Long delta +113.7M shares.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 18, expensive options.

Term structure: Backwardated, near-term highest.

Skew: Put skew elevated, consider put credit spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $3.96M positive, P/C volume ratio 0.49 indicates call dominance aligning with bullish flow.

Directional prints: 47.3 call 15.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol 14148 vs OI 3779 (3.7x); aggressive buying likely as bullish bets. 51.2 call 15.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol 2805 vs OI 893 (3.1x); active call buying, leans bullish.

Unusual: 52.3 put 13 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 3190 vs OI 574 (5.6x); potential hedging or bearish speculation; given bullish flow, likely sold. 65.1 put 10 OTM 2026-11-20 — Vol 1021 vs OI 219 (4.7x); high activity; possibly protective puts or bearish; prefer sold. 47.3 call 15.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol 14148 vs OI 3779 (3.7x); standout call volume, likely bought for upside.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $15.
!Max pain pin at $16.
!Negative GEX volatility.
!Spot deviation from MP.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long callModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-05 $16.00 call
Why now: Aggressive buying at 15.5 call and net premium positive suggest upside
Spot below max pain at $16 and negative gamma near $15 may cause reversals
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-06-12 $15.50/$18.00 call spread
Why now: Captures bullish bias while capping risk
Max profit limited if rally exceeds short strike; pin risk at expiry
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-17 $15.00/$18.00 call spread
Why now: Call flow dominance and bullish bias favor defined-risk upside; use 65 DTE to hold through event.
If stock reverses near $15, spread may lose value; max loss is debit paid.
Bullish risk reversalModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $17.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $14.00 put
Why now: Call flow and low P/C ratio support bullish risk reversal; short put collects premium and defines downside.
Unlimited upside if call gains, but short put obligates buying stock if dropped below strike.

Top Plays

#1
Bullish defined-risk spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $15.00/$18.00 call spread
Long $15/$18 call spread, captures upside up to $18 with limited loss.
Why this play: Best fit for bullish bias with caution; holds through earnings with defined risk.
Debit: $0.90-$1.10
Max loss: $1.10
BE: $16.10
Mgmt: Exit if spot < $15; consider closing at $18 or before earnings.
Traders seeking upside with capped risk ahead of earnings.
#2
Bullish risk reversal
Buy 2026-07-17 $17.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $14.00 put
Long $17 call, short $14 put; benefits from movement over $17.
Why this play: Call flow and low P/C ratio support upside; short put funds the call.
Debit: $0.09-$0.11
Max loss: $14.00
BE: $14.00
Mgmt: Monitor short put; roll or close if spot approaches $14.
Aggressive traders expecting breakout, willing to take assignment risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot holds above $15 support → THEN enter SOFI-BCS-001: buy 2026-07-17 $15/$18 call spread for $0.90-$1.10.
IFIF spot breaks above $16.50 resistance → THEN enter SOFI-RR-001: buy 2026-07-17 $17 call / sell 2026-07-17 $14 put for $0.09-$0.11 credit.
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot closes below $15.00 → THEN close all bullish positions (SOFI-BCS-001, SOFI-RR-001, long call from strategy 1).

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias, cautious due to negative gamma. Use $15 support as invalidation. Target $16.50-$16.63 resistance. Prefer defined-risk spreads until breakout.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.