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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $15.62EOD only

Max Pain

$16.00

Next expiry May 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.78

5.0% from close

Price Gap

+0.38

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.52

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

SOFI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with upside magnet to $16.50–$17 (pinning to $16 today, $17 next week); Confidence: 8.5/10 (base). Top supporting signals: strong positive GEX +$76.7M concentrated at $16.50/$17 and net premium skewed to calls (+$3.9M), high IV (ATM ~75.6%) which favors selling premium against the pin. Conflict: IV elevated and long-dated IV cliff into early May (70.6% at 22d) raises tail risk if an exogenous shock occurs.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 8.5 per pre-compute; driven by GEX +$76.7M pin concentration at 16.50/17, bullish net premium +$3.9M, spot sits 1.7% above $16 max pain; downside risk from high IV and earnings on 4/28-29 outside current pins.

Supports: GEX concentration +$25.1M at $16.50 and +$23.4M at $17; put OI clustered at $15.00/$16.00 creating a dealer buy floor; net premium skew to calls.
Conflicts: Elevated avg IV 75.6% and ATM short-dated IV 60.0% (1d) with a vol term bump 22–36d (70.6%→67.8%) that prices event risk; rising MP trend from $16→$17 could draw price higher, conflicting with immediate $16 pin.

📌GEX pin magnet concentrated at $16.50 (+$25.1M) and $17 (+$23.4M) — dealers will hedge to pin spot near these strikes.

⚠️Gamma flip near ~$15 — a 7.8% move below spot erodes dealer long-gamma support and accelerates downside.

💸High IV (ATM ~75.6%) makes short premium attractive but elevated term IV into early May increases assignment/tail risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Vol: High — ATM avg IV 75.6% with a short-term ATM 1d IV 60.0% and a pronounced term bump 22–36d (70.6%/69.6%); tail risk priced into May expiries.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma: Pinning — large positive GEX +$76.7M concentrated at 16.50/17 creating a short-term pin/magnet that encourages mean-reverting dealer hedging around those strikes.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Flow: Bullish — net premium +$3.9M and call-heavy premium flow (notably $17 and $15 call flow) supporting upside; P/C vol 0.67 confirms call demand.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above max pain: spot $16.27 sits above today’s MP $16 and near-term MP trend to $17, so dealers are biased to hedge toward pins above spot.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and MP trend persist across multiple expirations ($16→$17) and GEX sign is stable across the next 2–4 weeks; prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$15.82$16.72

Dealer hedging around $16.50 and $16 max pain; break below $15.82 and especially <$15 would flip momentum (gamma flip ~$15).

Next 1 week

$15.20$17.34

MP moves to $17 for 4/17 and GEX at $17 creates an upside pin; sustained trade >$17 invalidates near-term put support.

Next 2 weeks

$14.83$17.72

Structural call OI wall at $18–$22 limits extension; a move above $17.72 would require large directional flow or news (earnings on 4/28-29).

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $16 (2026-04-10); $17 (2026-04-17); $17 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 2d $15.82/$16.72; 1w $15.20/$17.34

Support: $16.00 · $15.50 · $15.00

Resistance: $16.50 · $17.00 · $18.00

Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,279 (7.8% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall at $18–$22 caps upside extension; put floor concentrated at $15 creates structural downside buffer and gamma flip at ~$15 marks behavioral inflection for directional acceleration.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+76.7M

DEX: +116.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$15 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,279 (7.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large positive near-ATM gamma concentrated at $16.50 (+$25.1M) and $17.00 (+$23.4M) — dealers will buy/sell stock to hedge, creating a pin; if spot moves -2% (~$15.95) dealers reduce hedges modestly but remain net long-gamma until ~15; a -7.8% move to ~$15 flips gamma and could produce sharper dealer selling/acceleration downward.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is high (avg IV 75.6%) — expensive for buyers, attractive for sellers; compare to equity vol benchmarks (elevated relative to large-cap norms).

Term structure: Bifurcated: front-week (1d–15d) ATM 60–54% then marked jump at 22–36d to ~70% indicating an event/term premium (May expiries); steepness creates calendar/diagonal opportunities.

Skew: Notable skew: long-dated ATM elevated; mispriced vol opportunity — sell the higher-IV May leg (5/15 ATM 67.8%) and buy the lower-IV Apr17 leg (4/17 ATM 54.5%) to capture ~13.3 vol-pt differential, structuring as a reverse calendar per sell-leg rule.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $3.9M (call-heavy); P/C vol 0.67 and P/C OI 0.55 indicate call dominance

Directional prints: 54.7 call 16.5 OTM 2026-04-24 — SOFI 4/24 16.50C vol 4,265 vs OI 852 (5.0x) — could be buy-to-open calls or call-writes; consistent with overall bullish call flow. 53.1 call 17 OTM 2026-04-24 — Large OI at 17.00C (38,457) with non-trivial flow $1.546M — structural dealer hedging around $17.

Unusual: 1065.6 call 2 ITM 2026-05-15 — SOFI 5/15 2.00C shows extreme IV and unusual OI (likely data artifact or corporate action sensitivity); treat with caution.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near ~$15 breaks dealer support and can accelerate downside; GEX concentrated above spot so surprise to downside is amplified.

!Elevated IV and term bump into late April/early May — vol spikes could widen spreads and blow through short premium wings.

!Upcoming earnings 2026-04-28/29 (EPS est $0.12) sits just after short-term pins and can trigger repricing if guidance/disc. surprises.

!Max pain trend rising to $17 implies dealers will hedge upward into expirations — sudden negative macro shocks remain tail risk.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy stock at market $16.27	High capital and gamma flip below $15; IV decay irrelevant.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid aggressive short — pin and positive GEX create mean-reversion into $16.50/$17	Dealer pinning and call flow press upside.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-04-24 17.00 call	Capped upside at $17; assignment risk if >$17; limited premium due to high IV.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 16.00 put or sell 16.00/15.00 put spread 4/17	Gamma flip near $15; collect premium but at risk if spot falls below $15.50–15.00.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-24 17.00 call	High IV makes long calls expensive; delta poor entry relative to buy-write alternatives.
Long puts / bear put spread	Weak	Buy 2026-04-17 15.00 put or 16.00/15.00 bear put spread	High IV and strong pining make protective puts expensive; tail protection costly.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 15.50/15.00 put vertical AND sell 16.50/18.00 call vertical (defined-risk condor around pins)	IV spike or move >EM bounds breaks wings; manage into volatility moves.
Calendar / diagonal (reverse calendar)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 16.00 (ATM IV 67.8%) and buy 2026-04-17 16.00 (ATM IV 54.5%) — sold leg is higher-IV May, so structure is a reverse calendar/diagonal	If near-term pin collapses or Apr IV spikes you can incur losses; requires active roll management to capture the ~13.3 vol-pt differential.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-15 15.00 and sell 2026-04-24 17.00 calls against long stock or long-term calls	Time premium and roll risk; long-dated IV elevated but provides directional optionality.
Sell naked puts (aggressive)	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-04-17 15.00 put cash-secured	Assignment into stock; gamma flip below $15 increases risk.

Top Plays

Sell 16.00/15.00 put spread 2026-04-17

Sell 16.00/15.00 put spread 4/17

Collects short-term premium against strong dealer pin and put floor at $15; defined risk if gamma flip not triggered.

Credit: $0.35-$0.55

Max loss: $0.65

BE: $15.65

Mgmt: Take profits at 50–70% of max credit; cut if spot <$15.50 or VIX >30.

Traders wanting defined-risk premium collection with multi-week pin exposure

Iron condor centered on pin — 4/17

Sell 15.50/15.00 put vert and sell 16.50/18.00 call vert 4/17

Plays mean-reversion into $16.50/$17 with defined risk; short premium on both sides benefits from high IV.

Credit: $0.45-$0.85

Max loss: $3.55

BE: Lower BE ~15.05; Upper BE ~17.35

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% max profit; widen/cut if spot >$17.50 or <$15.

Accounts that can manage multi-leg risk and want to exploit pinned range

Reverse calendar/diagonal: SELL May15 16.00, BUY Apr17 16.00 (sell higher-IV leg)

Sell 2026-05-15 16.00 and buy 2026-04-17 16.00 (sell higher-IV May leg 67.8% / buy Apr17 54.5%)

Captures term-premium (May ATM IV 67.8% vs Apr17 54.5% = ~13.3 vol-pt) and benefits if near-term pin holds into April expiries.

Credit: $0.60-$1.10

Max loss: Varies (manage via rolling)

BE: Requires monitoring of IV and delta skew

Mgmt: Close or roll if near-term IV collapses or spot trades >$17.50; close for 40–60% realized profit.

Experienced vols traders who can manage assignment/rolls; longer-dated leg provides multi-week premium harvesting

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot holds >= $16.25 for 30 minutes → Sell 16.00/15.00 put spread 2026-04-17

IFIf spot tags $16.50 and fails to close above by EOD → Execute iron condor: sell 15.50/15.00 put vert and sell 16.50/18.00 call vert 4/17

IFIf spot drifts to $15.20 (lower 1-week EM guardrail) and IV spikes >80% → Avoid short premium; buy protective 15.00 puts or reduce short exposure

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot > $17.00 and holds 30m → Hedge short calls from iron condor by buying 17.50–18.00 call protection or roll call wings wider to 18.50/20.00 where available

ADJIf spot < $15.50 (near put floor) → Trim short put exposure and convert to calendar (buy longer-dated protection) or buy back short puts

Exit Triggers

EXITIf trade P/L reaches 50–70% of max credit for short premium trades → Take profits on sell-put spreads / iron condor

EXITIf VIX-style IV (symbol ATM mid-term) >30% or May ATM IV rises >+10vol pts vs entry → Exit/neutralize short premium positions promptly

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: mean-reversion into the $16.50–$17 pin driven by heavy positive GEX and call-biased flow; invalidation: sustained close below $15 (gamma flip) or a vol shock that lifts May IV >+10pts. Regime favors defined-risk short premium (put spreads, iron condors) and reverse calendar/diagonal selling of elevated May IV; top plays: 4/17 16/15 put spread (defined-risk), 4/17 iron condor around pin, reverse calendar selling May 16.00 for term premium capture.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.