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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $19.43EOD only
Max Pain
$17.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.18
6.1% from close
Price Gap
-2.43
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.53
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 17, 2026 close
SOFI Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Mildly bullish-to-neutral: dealer long-gamma positioning and concentrated put OI at $18 are likely to pin spot near $18–20 over the next 1–2 weeks; a break below the gamma-flip ~ $15 would flip bias sharply bearish.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
Dealer long-gamma concentration at $18, concentrated put max pain, elevated front-month IV increasing hedging costs.
Supports: Dealer long gamma centered at $18, concentrated put OI (max pain), persistent buy-side premium flow into near-dated puts.
Conflicts: Spot ~11% above max pain and gamma flip near $15 creates asymmetric downside vulnerability if spot falls.
📌Max pain concentrated at $18 across near-dates — pin risk high into expiries.
🧭Dealers net long gamma (+$140M) — hedging dampens moves and biases toward pin.
⚠️Gamma flip ~ $15 — crossing it triggers dealer selling and rapid downside.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High: front-month IV elevated vs recent norms, raising option premia and hedging costs.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning: dealers net long gamma concentrated near $18, causing delta-hedging that centralizes spot around max pain.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish skew/flow: buy-side premium into $18 puts and dealer long-gamma create a net hedging pressure toward $18; dealers are net long gamma (bought options), not net short premium.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Above: spot ~11% above max pain (~$18), so dealer hedging pressure tends to drift spot toward MP until expiries.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Concentration of OI and dealer gamma in near-dated expiries implies effects dominant for 1–2 weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks
$16.82$22.18
Sustained above $18 maintains pin; break below ~$15 accelerates dealer selling.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $18 (2026-04-24); $18 (2026-05-01); $18 (2026-05-08)
EM guardrails:
Support: $16.82
Resistance: $20.00 · $22.18
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 70,739 (23.1% below spot)
Structural: $18 (strong max pain/pinning); resistance $20 then $22.18; structural downside trigger/gamma flip ~ $15.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+140.3M

DEX: +123.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$15 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 70,739 (23.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net long gamma (+$140.3M GEX, +123.2M shares); hedging of that long-gamma exposure will compress moves and bias spot toward the strike cluster (~$18) until expiries.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV is elevated vs recent norms and in line with VIX ~19; front-months are rich relative to later months, making naked long vol costly and short-structure premiums attractive but riskier near the gamma flip.

Term structure: Front-months show kinks at weekly expiries (front loaded IV); back months are cheaper — steepness favors calendar/diagonal structures.

Skew: Preferred: sell defined-risk premium (e.g., short put spread or iron condor) centered outside $15–$18, size small near front-months. Risk limits: max 1–2% notional at risk per trade, avoid naked short puts below $15. Strike guidance: sell put spreads with short strike >= $15 and width sized to cap loss to planned risk; consider buying back or hedging if spot approaches $16–16.5 given gamma flip.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium inflow ~12.7M skewed toward calls but includes meaningful put activity; side mix (buy vs sell) ambiguous—bullish/pinning plausible but not definitive; see prints for per-trade reads.

Directional prints: 55.1 put 19 OTM 2026-04-24 — Large short-dated put block with vol/oi 6.4; trade could be protective put buys or put sales/rolls—size and buyer/seller side needed to resolve (ambiguous). 57 call 20.5 OTM 2026-04-24 — Same-day call flow vol/oi 1.6; preferred read is directional call buys supporting near-term upside/pinning, though covered-call selling cannot be excluded without counterparty/lot info. 335.2 call 2 ITM 2026-08-21 — Tiny-strike calls show extreme IV but moneyness unknown (underlying price not provided) and lot sizes likely tiny/structured; treat as uncertain/speculative until underlying/size confirmed.

Unusual: 82.4 call 24.5 OTM 2026-05-01 — Elevated vol/oi on OTM calls—targeted upside speculation possible, but buyer/seller side not confirmed. 106.02 call 2 ITM 2026-05-15 — Very low-strike call block with absurd IV—likely odd-lot/structured or mispriced sweep; size/underlying needed to interpret.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below gamma flip ~$15 causing dealer deleveraging and sharp downside
!Macro/sector selloff (e.g., QQQ weakness) widening IV and overwhelming dealer pin
!Company-specific news or earnings moving spot away from max pain

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-08 $17.00/$14.00 put spread
Why now: Mildly bullish-to-neutral bias; sell short-dated puts where put OI concentrates to collect premium while limiting tail risk if gamma-flip triggers downside.
Break below ~$15 gamma-flip causing rapid dealer deleveraging and heavy losses.
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-05-15 $20.00/$22.00 call spread
Why now: Owning limited upside convexity reduces downside to IV crush vs naked calls; fits mildly bullish-to-neutral view and concentrated call flow.
IV rise on macro/sector selloff or poor earnings widens costs; limited upside magnitude if resistance holds at $20.
Cash-secured putModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-15 $17.00 cash-secured put
Why now: Concentrated put OI and dealer pinning make rolling/assignment plausible; use expiration after earnings to allow follow-through.
Assignment below gamma-flip ~$15 or large IV spike raising effective purchase price.
Call calendarModerate
Sell 2026-05-08 $20.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $20.00 call
Why now: Sell May-08 calls where near-term IV is elevated and buy Jun-18 calls to retain upside convexity if price moves through resistance after earnings.
Sharp post-earnings directional move and IV skew changes can make short leg costly to manage.

Top Plays

#1
Short-dated put credit spread
Sell 2026-05-08 $17.00/$14.00 put spread
Sell 5/8 17/14 put spread to express mildly bullish-to-neutral view and benefit from dealer pinning and time decay with defined risk.
Why this play: Collects premium where put OI concentrates while capping tail risk if gamma flip occurs.
Credit: $0.27-$0.32
Max loss: $2.68
BE: $16.68
Mgmt: Close or roll if spot trades below ~$16.8 (invalidation) or if IV spikes; take profit early on >50% of max gain.
Traders wanting premium income with limited downside exposure and event-specific horizon.
#2
Near-term call calendar
Sell 2026-05-08 $20.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $20.00 call
Sell 5/8 $20 call and buy 6/18 $20 call to capture front-month decay and preserve upside convexity.
Why this play: Sells elevated short-term IV into pinning while keeping longer-dated upside if earnings surprise.
Debit: $0.58-$0.71
Max loss: $0.71
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Widen or close if spot breaks above $20 with rising IV; buy back short leg before max loss window.
Vol sellers who want exposure to post-earnings drift without naked short risk.
#3
Debit bull call spread
Buy 2026-05-15 $20.00/$22.00 call spread
Buy 5/15 $20/$22 call spread to profit from modest upside toward $20–$22 while capping premium loss.
Why this play: Limited-cost long-upside that reduces vega exposure vs naked calls into event uncertainty.
Debit: $0.59-$0.73
Max loss: $0.73
BE: $20.73
Mgmt: Take profit near intrinsic break-even or cut if spot falls below $16.8 or IV collapses.
Directional bulls seeking defined risk upside after earnings.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot trades between $18.00–$20.00 (pin range) before 2026-04-28 AND put spread fills within $0.27–$0.32 → THEN sell 2026-05-08 17/14 put credit spread (sofi_put_credit_spread_01) sized to risk limits
IFIF spot is $19.50–$20.50 AND short-term IV <= baseline*1.25 BEFORE establishing calendar → THEN establish call calendar: sell 2026-05-08 $20 call / buy 2026-06-18 $20 call (sofi_call_calendar_01); close or avoid calendars >3 trading days before earnings
IFIF you prefer defined long-upside AND spot >= $19.00 with bullish skew → THEN buy 2026-05-15 $20/$22 bull call spread (sofi_bull_call_spread_01) within $0.59–$0.73
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF spot falls below invalidation $16.82 OR IV rises >25% vs baseline OR spot crosses gamma flip ~$15 OR if calendar is >3 trading days before earnings → THEN close or roll short put spread; buy back short calendar leg or avoid new calendars; cut bull call at predefined loss limit
Exit Triggers
EXITIF position reaches >50% of max gain OR risk tolerance changes OR >3 trading days before earnings → THEN take profits and flat position before earnings

Tactical Summary

Mildly bullish-to-neutral: favor short-dated premium (put credit or call calendar) sized for defined risk. Use explicit IV spike threshold (>25% vs baseline). Treat spot bands numerically ($19.50–$20.50 for call calendars). Close/avoid calendars >3 trading days prior to earnings; defend at $16.82 invalidation and respect bearish flip below ~$15.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.