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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $19.06EOD only

Max Pain

$18.50

Next expiry Apr 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.70

3.6% from close

Price Gap

-0.56

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.53

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Apr 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 22, 2026 close

SOFI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 23, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias: dealer net long-gamma and bullish flow with pinning around $18 supports continuation toward upper ranges (~$20) unless a swift sell-off breaches gamma flip near $15.

Confidence:

9 / 10

High base score driven by large positive GEX, bullish premium flow, spot near MP and moderate VIX.

Supports: Positive GEX, bullish flow, spot pinned at $18; short-term guardrail holds.
Conflicts: High IV/vol can amplify downside; gamma flip far below spot increases tail risk.

📌Pinning at $18 with heavy put OI; dealers biased to keep spot near strike

⚖️GEX +$88M and +120.9M dex shares => dealer net long-gamma providing stability

⚠️Gamma flip ~ $15; breach would accelerate downside

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV relative to typical; elevated due to recent dispersion and sector weakness.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning regime: concentrated put OI around $18 creating dealer pin and convexity near spot.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net premium flow (buyers); skew shows demand for downside protection but overall premium paid is net bullish.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at/near market pin ($~18) implying short-term anchoring and low drift.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained dealer positioning and recurring weekly max-pain at $18 across expiries

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$17.81$18.82

Likely to oscillate around $18 within 2d guardrails $17.81–$18.82

Next 1 week

$16.41$20.22

Upper bound $20.22 reachable if tape remains positive and pin holds

Next 2 weeks

$15.93$20.71

Continuation to $20.7 possible absent shock; gamma flip at $15 caps downside support

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $18 (2026-04-24); $18 (2026-05-01); $18 (2026-05-08)

EM guardrails: 2d $17.81/$18.82; 1w $16.41/$20.22

Support: $15.93

Resistance: $18.50 · $20.00 · $20.71

Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 70,851 (18.1% below spot)

Structural: 2d guardrails $17.81/$18.82; 1w $16.41/$20.22; structural support $15.93; resistances $18.5, $20.0, $20.71; gamma-flip ~$15.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+88.1M

DEX: +120.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$15 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 70,851 (18.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$88.1M, DEX +120.9M shares; dealers long-gamma near $18; gamma-flip ≈ $15 (put OI concentration 70,851).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: SOFI IV is rich vs VIX, signaling elevated stock-specific risk—favors premium sales if comfortable with directional exposure.

Term structure: Front-week IV elevated with weekly pinning kinks at expiries; term structure slopes down modestly into longer-dated expiries.

Skew: Put-heavy skew around $18; opportunity to sell premium against dealer pin or buy cheap farther OTM protection near gamma-flip.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: ~$10.41M inflow; P/C vol ~0.48. Calls dominate headline premium but significant put prints in May reduce a clear call bias—recommend granular weighting by notional/trade intent before firm directional call.

Directional prints: 47.9 call 18.5 OTM 2026-04-24 — Huge same-day 18.5 calls (17k vol, 3.5k OI) — likely buy-to-open gamma/call buying for immediate upside. 85.2 put 17.5 OTM 2026-05-01 — Large May1 17.5 put activity (7.6k vol, 3.9k OI) — defensive hedges or spread selling; indicates positioning around mid-May. 77 put 18.5 ITM 2026-05-08 — May8 18.5 puts with extreme vol/OI (9.5) — aggressive buy-to-open tail protection/spec.

Unusual: 183.13 call 2 ITM 2026-05-15 — May15 $2 calls show outsized IV at a very low strike—probable low-liquidity/data anomaly; verify trade size, clearing flags and block/odd-lot status. 78.3 call 18.5 OTM 2026-05-08 — May8 18.5 calls notable IV spike vs short-dated calls — speculative/leverage trades.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $15–$16 could trigger accelerated sell-off at gamma flip

!Broad market weakness (SPY/QQQ declines) increasing downside pressure

!IV spike around earnings or macro news widening ranges

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-29 $21.00/$24.00 call spread Why now: Bullish flow and dealer long-gamma support upside; use defined-risk debit spread to capture move without naked long vega into possible IV spike.	IV pop on earnings could widen debit; limited upside vs stock.
Call diagonal	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $20.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $25.00 call Why now: Sell relatively nearer-dated calls to fund further-dated longs, capturing directional move and term-structure edge while avoiding inadvertent earnings exposure.	Roll risk if spot gaps above short strikes; theta bleed on short leg.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-05-29 $16.00/$13.00 put spread Why now: Collect premium where puts are rich and gamma flip sits lower; defined risk if downside accelerates past $15–$16.	Break below $15–$16 triggers accelerated loss and margin; broad market sell-off increases probability. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (123%).
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $16.00 cash-secured put Why now: Bullish multi-week view and concentrated premium around mid-teens; use cash-secured puts to convert premium into discounted entry while avoiding immediate earnings expiry.	Assignment at unwanted levels if broad market falls; IV spike increases mark-to-market.
Call diagonal	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $20.50 call / buy 2026-08-21 $25.00 call Why now: Heavy same-day call prints and rich near-term IV provide rollable premium to fund longer-dated upside exposure while benefiting from theta on short leg; expirations chosen to avoid unintended pre-earnings expiration.	Near-term gap above short strike forces costly roll; vega skew shift can hurt front or back leg. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (58%).

Top Plays

Defined bull-call spread (May 29 21/24)

Buy 2026-05-29 $21.00/$24.00 call spread

Debit spread to capture multi-week upside toward $20 while limiting loss if gamma flip (~$15) triggers sell-off.

Why this play: Balances bullish flow and dealer long-gamma with defined risk; avoids naked long vega into potential IV moves.

Debit: $0.40-$0.48

Max loss: $0.48

BE: $21.48

Mgmt: Trim into strength toward $24; close or roll if stock nears invalidation $15.9 or IV spikes into earnings.

Traders wanting directional upside with controlled capital at risk.

Call diagonal (sell May 29 $20 / buy Aug 21 $25)

Sell 2026-05-29 $20.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $25.00 call

Short nearer-term call funds further-dated long to express bullish bias with lower upfront debit and roll optionality.

Why this play: Leverages rich near-term calls and heavy same-day prints to fund longer-dated upside and collect theta.

Debit: $0.05-$0.06

Max loss: $0.06

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Manage short leg weekly; roll out/ up if pinning forms near $18–$20 or close before earnings.

Tactical bulls seeking cost-efficient, rollable exposure.

Cash-secured put (May 29 $16)

Sell 2026-05-29 $16.00 cash-secured put

Sell secured put to acquire shares near mid-teens or keep premium if stable.

Why this play: Collects concentrated premium and offers discounted entry while aligning with bullish multi-week view.

Credit: $0.52-$0.63

Max loss: $15.37

BE: $15.37

Mgmt: Adjust/close if price breaches $15–$15.5 or broad market weakens; size for assignment risk.

Investors willing to own stock at $16.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF SOFI > 17.5 and bid for 2026-05-29 21/24 bull-call spread within $0.40–$0.48 → THEN buy the bull-call spread (buy 21 / sell 24) sized to risk ≤ $0.48 per spread, target upside toward $20–24

IFIF SOFI between 15.5–17.5 and premium for 2026-05-29 $16 cash-secured put trades $0.52–$0.63 → THEN sell the $16 cash-secured put sized for assignment tolerance

IFIF short May $20 call can be sold for $0.05–$0.06 AND implied pin probability at $20 ≥ 25% OR predefined roll plan triggered (e.g., stock ≤ $19.50 at weekly roll) → THEN open call diagonal (sell May29 $20 / buy Aug21 $25) sized per risk plan and follow weekly short-leg management rules

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF SOFI ≥ 20 or position shows defined gains toward max → THEN trim partial position (sell spreads or short legs) and take profits; carry remainder with tighter stops

Exit Triggers

EXITIF SOFI ≤ 15.93 OR (SPX drops >3% within 3 trading days) OR (VIX >25 AND SPX below its 50-day MA) → THEN close/roll all bullish option exposure and cut risk; consider buying protection or converting positions to cash-secured puts per recovery plan

Tactical Summary

Bullish multi-week bias: prefer defined-risk bullish structures (May29 21/24 spread, May29 $16 CSP, May29/Aug diagonal). Entry rules include objective price, spread bid, implied pin probability or roll-plan triggers. Invalidate on SOFI ≤15.93 or clear market stress (SPX >3% drop in 3 days or VIX>25 with SPX below 50-day MA). Manage short legs weekly and trim into strength.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 23, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.