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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $18.22EOD only

Max Pain

$16.00

Next expiry Jun 5, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.14

6.3% from close

Price Gap

-2.22

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.49

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

SOFI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term upside magnet to $19 driven by strong positive GEX pinning and concentrated call flow; Confidence: 7.5/10.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 7.5 from pre-computed: +167.3M GEX pinning and bullish net premium $20.4M support pin; slight offset from spot being 5.4% above MP and elevated avg IV 72.9% raising crash risk.

Supports: GEX concentration at $19.00 (+$43.8M) and $18.00 (+$25.1M); Max pain ladder anchored at $17 across expirations.
Conflicts: Spot sits 5.4% above MP ($17) so mean-reversion risk if flows rotate; VIX 18.36 limits extreme premium but IV term shows higher mid-dated vols.

📌Pinning pressure: GEX +$167.3M with largest NTM concentrations at $19/$17.5/$18

📈Heavy call premium at $17-$18 (net flows: $17 ~$3.55M, $18 ~$3.52M) — dealer delta buys likely cap upside near $19

⚠️Gamma flip near $15 is structural downside guard; a breach would accelerate selling

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV (Avg IV 72.9%) means expensive mid-dated vol; very short-dated IV compressed (3d ATM 50.8%) vs 17d 71.8% — event and term skew present.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning — total GEX +$167.3M with concentrated NTM GEX at $19/$18/$17.5 creates a gravity well for spot toward $17–$19.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net premium $20.4M with P/C vol 0.42 and P/C OI 0.55: flows are call-dominant, consistent with dealer hedging buys that support higher spot into expiries.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $17.91 sits above MP $17; that distance (5.4%) suggests upside magnet capped by $19 OI wall but also vulnerability to mean-revert back to $17 if flows flip.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain is stable (~$17) across multiple expirations and GEX sign/pinning persists across the next 3–6 expirations; trade preference toward 30–45 DTE with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$17.15$18.67

NTM GEX at $18.00 and $19.00 plus heavy call flow should tug spot upward unless SPY/QQQ reverse.

Next 1 week

$16.59$19.22

Max pain $17 and 1w EM guardrails guide iron-condor wings; break below $16.59 or above $19.22 would shift momentum.

Next 2 weeks

$15.62$20.19

Mid-dated IV (17d ATM 71.8%) priced for moves; decisive break of gamma flip ~$15 accelerates downside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $17 (2026-04-17); $16 (2026-04-24); $17 (2026-05-01)

EM guardrails: 2d $17.15/$18.67; 1w $16.59/$19.22

Support: $17.00 · $16.50 · $15.00

Resistance: $18.00 · $19.00 · $20.00

Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,092 (16.2% below spot)

Structural: Structural call OI wall between $19–$25 caps upside; put floor concentrated $15–$16 and gamma flip near $15 is acceleration zone for directional trades.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+167.3M

DEX: +121.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$15 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,092 (16.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM gamma concentrated positive at $19 (+$43.8M), $18 (+$25.1M), $17.5 (+$29.6M) — dealers short call-gamma there and will buy delta as spot rises, creating pinning; if spot moves -2% (~$17.55) dealers reduce delta buys and selling pressure can emerge; if +2% (~$18.25) dealers add delta buying, reinforcing mean reversion toward pins.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 72.9% is rich vs VIX 18.36; near-term IVs are lower (3d ATM 50.8%) while 17d+ spikes to 71.8% indicating event/term premium.

Term structure: Steep rise from 3d 50.8% → 17d 71.8% then gradual descent to ~62–65% across 45–90d, implying mid-dated vol is expensive relative to near-DTE weeklies.

Skew: Skew: calls concentrated OI at $19/$22 creates call-side liquidity; mispriced opportunity: sell higher-IV longer-dated calls vs buy lower-IV nearer-dated calls (reverse calendar) — e.g., sell 05/29 IV ~62.6% and buy 04/24 IV ~52.8% at same strike.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$20.4M, call-heavy (top net flows: $17 net $3,546,195; $18 net $3,521,675).

Directional prints: 62.1 call 17 ITM 2026-04-17 — $17 calls heavy flow (Vol 13,888 vs OI 46,063) — could be call buys or sellers rolling; either increases call-side gamma and dealer delta exposure, consistent with bullish dealer hedging. 51.8 call 18 OTM 2026-04-17 — $18 calls very active (Vol 30,875 OI 44,178) — large short-dated activity likely bought calls driving dealer delta buys.

Unusual: 52.5 put 17.5 OTM 2026-04-24 — $17.50 puts unusual (Vol 2,657 OI 283) — could be protective buys or block puts; interpretation leans as buys but less consistent with dominant call flow.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near $15 would accelerate downside if breached

!Upcoming earnings 2026-04-28/29 (estimate $0.12) within 2 weeks increases IV and event risk to mid-dated spreads

!Concentration of call OI at $19 and $22 can cause pinning but also creates asymmetric tail risk if macro sells off

!VIX low (~18) limits panic premium but a sudden VIX spike would blow through short wings quickly

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy SOFI shares at market	IV and GEX favor pinning not trending; downside to $15 gamma flip; requires conviction.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid naked short stock — GEX positive incentivizes dealer delta buying	Heavy call flow and positive GEX create short-squeeze risk.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy 100 shares + sell 2026-05-29 $19 call	Capped upside at $19 and assignment vs call wall; downside to $15.
Cash-secured put / Put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 $17.00/$16.00 put spread	Gamma flip near $15; close if spot ≤ $16.50 or IV jumps.
Long calls	Weak	Buy short-dated calls only for gamma plays — limited edge due to elevated IV	High premium (Avg IV 72.9%) penalizes buyers.
Long puts / Bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-29 $16.00/$15.00 bear put spread	Expensive mid-dated IV but defined risk; useful if breach $16.50.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 iron condor: short $18/$16 with $20/$15 wings (short $18C/$16P, long $20C/$15P)	VIX spike or move beyond EM bounds ($16.59/$19.22) breaks wings.
Calendar / Diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-29 $18 call, buy 2026-04-24 $18 call (reverse calendar — sell higher-IV longer-dated leg: ~62.6% vs buy 52.8%)	Requires management if spot pops above $19; selling higher-IV longer leg creates theta tail risk but captures term premium.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-29 $15 call, sell 2026-04-24 $17.5 call (covered-call diagonal to reduce carry)	IV term premium and assignment risk on short leg.

Top Plays

Sell 10d put spread (tactical)

Sell 2026-04-24 $17.00/$16.00 put spread

High-probability short put spread inside 1w EM; benefits from positive GEX pinning and call-dominant flows keeping spot above $17.

Credit: $0.40-$0.55

Max loss: $0.60

BE: $16.60

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit at 30–40% of max risk; cut if spot ≤ $16.50 or VIX > 25.

Defined-risk premium collectors

Sell 10d iron condor (range trade)

Sell 2026-04-24 iron condor short $18/$16 with $20/$15 wings (structure: short $18C/$16P, long $20C/$15P)

Plays pinning and narrow 1-week EM $16.59–$19.22; collects rich mid-week theta with positive GEX support.

Credit: $0.55-$0.85

Max loss: $1.45

BE: $18 + credit / $16 - credit (per side)

Mgmt: Take 50% profit at half credit collected; widen or roll if spot tests $16.75 or $19.00.

Traders comfortable short premium and active hedging

Reverse calendar / diagonal (30–45d vol harvest)

Sell 2026-05-29 $18 call, buy 2026-04-24 $18 call (sell higher-IV longer-dated leg ~62.6% vs buy 52.8%)

Exploits term premium by selling the higher-IV longer-dated leg and buying the nearer lower-IV leg; benefits from pinning and gives room to adjust into earnings.

Credit: $0.20-$0.60

Max loss: Defined by difference in legs plus assignment/rolling costs

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Take profits at +40–60% of target; roll short longer-dated leg up if spot moves > +5% or close if IV widens >10 vol-pt.

Vol sellers wanting larger time premium and willing to manage reverse-calendar convexity

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot holds $17.00 for 30 minutes after a re-test → Sell 2026-04-24 $17.00/$16.00 put spread

IFIf spot tags $18.25 and fails to close above $18.50 on 30-min candle → Sell 2026-04-24 short $18 call as part of iron condor

IFIf spot falls to $16.50 and bounces within 60 minutes → Initiate covered call: buy stock and sell 2026-05-29 $19 call

Exit Triggers

EXITIf short put spread reaches 60–70% of max profit → Buy to close the 2026-04-24 $17.00/$16.00 put spread

EXITIf spot ≤ $15.00 (gamma flip breach) → Close/hedge all short premium and move to protective long puts (buy 2026-05-29 $15.00).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: short premium/range trades favored by strong positive GEX pinning toward $17–$19; invalidation is a sustained breach below ~$15 (gamma flip) which makes directional protection necessary. Top plays: (1) 10d $17/$16 put spread for defined premium, (2) 10d iron condor $18/$20/$16/$15 for range capture, (3) 30–45d reverse calendar $18 (sell 05/29, buy 04/24) to harvest term premium.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.