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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $18.83EOD only

Max Pain

$18.00

Next expiry Apr 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.01

5.4% from close

Price Gap

-0.83

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.53

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Apr 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 21, 2026 close

SOFI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish tilt: current spot $18.55 sits ~3% above the $18 max-pain pin; dealer long-gamma and bullish flow support range-bound upside toward $20–21 if broad risk-on continues, but a breach below $18 risks fast move to gamma flip near $15.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Positive GEX/DEX and concentrated $18 put OI supporting pin; tempered by spot slightly above pin and elevated IV.

Supports: Large positive GEX, concentrated $18 max-pain across expiries, bullish premium/flow
Conflicts: Spot is ~3% above the $18 pin (currently $18.55) and IV is elevated; requires market risk-on to sustain upside

📌Max-pain and heavy put OI centered at $18 — primary short-term floor

⚠️Gamma flip around $15 if $18 pin fails — rapid downside risk

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated vs VIX, reflecting idiosyncratic positioning and recent move

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Dealers net long-gamma; positive GEX pins price near $18 and amplifies pin risk

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net bullish premium and call/put flow; dealers likely delta-adding into moves

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $18.55 is ~3% above $18 max-pain — close enough to be anchored by pin but vulnerable to downside if market weakens

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Persistent put concentration at $18 and sustained dealer positioning create a multi-week pin/range bias

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$18.36$19.75

Pin at $18 and positive GEX limit sharp moves

Next 1 week

$16.81$21.31

Continued risk-on and dealer hedging could push higher

Next 2 weeks

$16.51$21.61

Sustained market weakness can breach support and hit gamma flip

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $18 (2026-04-24); $18 (2026-05-01); $18 (2026-05-08)

EM guardrails: 2d $18.36/$19.75; 1w $16.81/$21.31

Support: $18.50 · $16.51

Resistance: $20.00 · $21.61

Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 70,836 (21.3% below spot)

Structural: Primary floor: $18 (max-pain, concentrated put OI) — near-term anchor. Secondary short-term support/MP midpoint: $18.5 (current spot context). Resistances: $20 and $21.3. Gamma flip zone: ~ $15.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+127.4M

DEX: +123.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$15 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 70,836 (21.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$127.4M, DEX +123.8M shares; dealers net long-gamma, likely hedging/delta-adding around $18; flip risk near $15.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: SOFI IV is rich vs VIX, reflecting idiosyncratic put concentration and elevated demand; favors premium sellers if comfortable with directional risk.

Term structure: Front-month IV elevated with kinks at expiries clustered around $18; beyond a few weeks term-structure flattens.

Skew: Put-heavy skew below spot; opportunity to collect premium above $15–18 or sell skew if pin holds and IV compresses.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Ambiguous: large put activity increased premium flow but trade-side unclear — could be premium outflow (buying puts) or inflow (selling/put spreads). Verify tape/clearing flags to confirm net sign.

Directional prints: 72.6 put 18.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — High-volume May15 $18.50 puts (vol/oi 5.0). Two reads: protective put buys (premium outflow) or shorted/structured sells/spreads (premium inflow). Need tape-level prints/trade flags to decide. 75.6 put 16.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Very active May15 $16.50 puts (vol/oi 6.3). Could be urgent hedging or dealer/off-market sell-side flow. Request block details and buyer/seller clearing info.

Unusual: 168.8 call 2 ITM 2026-09-18 — Large Sep $2 calls with elevated IV suggesting long-dated call accumulation; confirm aggressor side to validate bullish conviction.

Risks & Catalysts

!Broad market risk-off that removes dealer hedging support and breaks $18

!Fast breach below concentrated put cluster triggering gamma flip near $15

!Idiosyncratic news causing IV spike and wider ranges

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-08 $17.50/$16.00 put spread Why now: Limited upside to $20–21; selling puts captures rich IV while capping risk if downside breach toward $15 occurs.	Broad market risk-off or breach below $18 causing fast gamma flip to $15
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-15 $20.00/$22.00 call spread Why now: Call spreads benefit if dealer hedging and bullish flow push stock into $20s while limiting cost; use expirations after earnings.	IV reprice/earnings-driven spike or broad market fade reduces upside reward
Cash-secured put	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 $16.50 cash-secured put Why now: Bullish tilt + willingness to own stock; use May expirations after earnings to capture premium and time for multi-week upside	Broad market risk-off or fast breach below $18 causing assignment at an unfavorable level
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-18 $21.00/$23.00 call spread Why now: Directional upside bias to $20–21 over multi-week horizon; use May/Jun strikes to capture upside while capping risk	IV re-pricing after earnings reduces realized upside or widens cost
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 $16.50/$15.00 put spread Why now: Bullish-neutral defined-risk premium sale fits dealer long-gamma/support; use May expirations after earnings to avoid early gamma	Rapid gap down through $18–15 gamma flip causing sharp losses
Call calendar	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-08 $20.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $20.00 call Why now: Flow shows call interest and dealer long-gamma; calendar captures term-structure edge while spanning earnings window	Post-earnings IV skew or a sharp directional move that blows out front leg losses

Top Plays

Short May8 17.50/16.00 put credit

Sell 2026-05-08 $17.50/$16.00 put spread

Sell May8 17.50/16.00 put spread to collect rich IV and profit if dealer hedging keeps SOFI above $17.5 post-earnings

Why this play: Highest premium per risk and tight defined loss while betting on range-bound upside to $20–21

Credit: $0.32-$0.40

Max loss: $1.10

BE: $17.10

Mgmt: Close or roll if stock breaks below 18.5 or widening bid/ask; cut if move toward 15 (gamma flip) or premium compresses sharply

Traders wanting limited-risk premium sale with short-dated edge

Short May15 16.50/15.00 put spread

Sell 2026-05-15 $16.50/$15.00 put spread

Sell May15 16.50/15.00 put spread to express bullish-neutral view while limiting downside into gamma cluster

Why this play: Cleaner post-earnings defined-risk sale farther from spot with lower credit and wider cushion

Credit: $0.23-$0.28

Max loss: $1.22

BE: $16.22

Mgmt: Manage if price nears 16.5 or market risk-off; unwind into breach of 18.5 or fast drops toward 15

Conservative premium sellers preferring post-earnings buffer

Jun18 21.00/23.00 bull call spread

Buy 2026-06-18 $21.00/$23.00 call spread

Buy Jun18 21/23 call spread to ride dealer-driven upside while limiting debit at modest cost

Why this play: Directional multi-week upside play to capture move into low $20s with capped cost

Debit: $0.44-$0.54

Max loss: $0.54

BE: $21.54

Mgmt: Take profits into 21–23, trim on sharp IV spikes, exit if stock fails to trend above 18.5 after earnings

Directional bulls targeting $20–21+ over several weeks

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF SOFI closes >18.50 and ≤20.00 on 2 consecutive trading days → THEN sell 2026-05-08 17.50/16.00 put spread (sofi_put_credit_spread_01) if net credit ≥$0.32

IFIF SOFI closes 18.00–18.50 OR ≥3 trading days after earnings and ATR(14) ≤0.75 → THEN sell 2026-05-15 16.50/15.00 put spread (sofi_put_credit_spread_v1) if net credit ≥$0.23

IFIF SOFI closes >20.00 and close >MA20 and IV30 change (7d) ≤+5% → THEN buy 2026-06-18 21.00/23.00 call spread (sofi_bull_call_spread_v1) if fill within $0.44–$0.54

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF position P/L ≥50% of max_gain and underlying price within 21.00–23.00 → THEN trim or take profits on call spread; consider rolling or closing a portion of sold put spread

Exit Triggers

EXITIF SOFI closes <18.50 for 2 consecutive trading days or SPX drawdown >3% (systemic risk-off) → THEN unwind/close all short-put positions; cut losses on calls if trend fails

EXITIF SOFI intraday prints ≤15.00 or IV30 spikes ≥+30% vs prior 7d → THEN close all defined-risk short positions immediately and reassess

Tactical Summary

Bullish tilt with defined thresholds: primary invalidation if SOFI ≤18.50 (2-day confirmation); severe risk/‘gamma flip’ at ≤15.00 or IV30+30%. Use short-dated put credits when price in 16.50–20.00 bands and controlled ATR; deploy Jun 21/23 call spread only after close>20.00 & close>MA20. Strict, measurable exits as above.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.