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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $15.98EOD only

Max Pain

$16.00

Next expiry May 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.68

4.3% from close

Price Gap

+0.02

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.52

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 26, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 26, 2026 close

SOFI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

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You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with upside magnet to $17 (near-term max pain); Confidence: 7.5/10. Strong signals: large positive GEX +$95.6M concentrated at $16.50/$17 (pinning), bullish net premium $6.3M with low P/C vol 0.45, and spot trading above MP ($16 vs spot $16.49) supporting mild upside; conflict: very high avg IV 72.9% raises premium risk and gamma flip near $15 is a clear invalidation.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow alignment; +1 pinning; -0.5 spot distance from MP; no overriding catalyst found.

Supports: GEX concentrations +$29.7M at $17 and +$26.2M at $16.50; put OI concentrated at $15.00/16.00 creating dealer buy support; max pain at $16 (2d) then $17 (1w+).
Conflicts: Avg IV 72.9% (rich), gamma flip ~$15 (~9% below spot) creates asymmetric downside, large call OI wall $18-$22 limits upside past $18.

📌**Pinning**: +$26.2M GEX at $16.50 and +$29.7M at $17 create a strong short-gamma dealer magnet near spot.

💰**Vol-rich**: ATM IVs 68.2% (2d) → ~59.6% (9d) then re-ramp into May; selling premium attractive with positive GEX.

🧭**Max pain rising**: MP moves from $16 → $17 across expirations — favors positioning that benefits from gentle drift to $17.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol regime: Avg IV 72.9% with very-high 2d ATM 68.2% and a steep mid-term re-ramp into early May (74.5% at 23d) — premium is rich and event-sensitive.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: large positive GEX +$95.6M concentrated at $16.50/$17 produces dealer short-gamma behavior that pins spot inside $15.82–$17.15 (2d EM).

Flow Regime

Bullish

Flow bullish: Net premium +$6.3M, P/C vol 0.45 and heavy call premium at $22/$19/$17 show institutional call buying skewed upside exposure.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $16.49 sits above short-term MP $16 and within 3.1% of the $17 pin; this creates a mild upside magnet toward $17 while protecting the $15-$16 put floor.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and MP trend to $17 persist across multiple expirations (2d→1w→2w), GEX sign stable positive, and flow regime consistent — prefer 30–45 DTE with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$15.82$17.15

Hold above $15.82 keeps GEX pin intact; break <$15.00 (gamma flip) accelerates downside.

Next 1 week

$15.26$17.72

Sustained call buying and rising MP to $17 will magnet spot; failure below $15.26 opens sellers' pathway to $14.86.

Next 2 weeks

$14.86$18.12

Move above $18 must overcome concentrated call OI at $18–$22; catalyst or VIX drop needed for follow-through.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $16 (2026-04-10); $17 (2026-04-17); $17 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 2d $15.82/$17.15; 1w $15.26/$17.72

Support: $16.00 · $15.50 · $15.00

Resistance: $17.00 · $18.00 · $19.00

Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,340 (9.0% below spot)

Structural: Structural call OI wall from $18–$22 caps extended upside; put floor concentrated $15–$15 supports long-term downside protection and dealer buying below $15.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+95.6M

DEX: +115.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$15 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,340 (9.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large positive NTM gamma concentrated at $16.50 (+$26.2M GEX) and $17.00 (+$29.7M GEX) — dealers short gamma between $15.82–$17.15 will buy delta on dips and sell on rallies; a 2% downmove (~$16.16) increases dealer hedging buys but a 2% upmove (~$16.82) produces selling of calls to manage short-gamma but net effect remains pinning toward $17.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is rich: Avg IV 72.9% and 2d ATM 68.2% vs typical index levels — expensive for buyers, attractive for premium sellers.

Term structure: Tilted: short-dated 2d 68.2% → 9d 59.6% → 23d 74.5% (kink into early May) indicating event or calendar re-price; 30–45d sits 65–70% supportive of medium-term spreads.

Skew: Notable skew: heavy call premium at $22/$19; mispriced opportunity: sell near-term 2d–9d ATM premium (sell high IV 68.2% vs 9d 59.6%) — regular calendar (sell near-term, buy 9d) captures ~8.6 vol-pt edge.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $6.3M (bullish); P/C vol 0.45 indicates call-dominant flow.

Directional prints: 64.1 call 17 OTM 2026-04-17 — Large call OI and premium at $17 (OI 38,448; top premium $2.22M across expirations) — could be buy-to-open directional or structures (buy calls vs sell puts); consistent with bullish flow. call 22 OTM 2026-05-15 — Massive OI at $22 (89,153 OI) and top premium $2.57M — structural call wall likely dealer-sold long-dated calls or collars limiting upside beyond $22.

Unusual: 70.6 put 17 ITM 2026-05-01 — Unusual: 2026-05-01 $17 put vol 10,290 vs OI 1,554 — heavy activity indicates protective/hedged positioning into May; could be bought protection or sold in complex — interpretation leans buy-protection given ITM status and elevated IV.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near ~$15: breach accelerates downside as dealer net gamma turns negative.

!Volatility hangover: Avg IV 72.9% and 23d IV 74.5% risk heavy premium decay/gap and nasty mark-to-market if VIX spikes.

!Expiry pin risk: 4/10 MP $16 and concentrated GEX at $16.50–$17 can create intraday squeezes around expiry.

!Call OI wall $18–$22 caps upside and can produce heavy selling if spot approaches $18.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy SOFI shares at market $16.49	High IV and skewed downside to gamma flip near $15; requires conviction in fundamentals.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid naked short given positive GEX and dealer buy-the-dip dynamic	Dealers buy into dips; gamma pin increases short-squeeze risk.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-08 $18 call	Caps upside at $18; IV rich reduces premium efficiency; requires owning shares.
Cash-secured put (CSP)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $16.00 put (or 4/24 $15.50)	Gap below $15 (gamma flip) could produce assignment; high IV offers attractive premium.
Short put spread	Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $16.00 / buy $15.00 put spread	Max loss if gap below $15; defined-risk way to collect pin-premium around $16–$17.
Long call	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-24 $17.50 call for directional upside	Very high IV inflates premium; expensive delta exposure vs buying nearer-dated calls.
Long put / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-04-17 $15.00 put / sell $14.00 put spread	Costs due to rich IV; useful as tail hedge below gamma flip.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $16.50/$15.00 put fly (or condor) × sell $18.00/$19.50 calls — prefer defined wings: sell $16.50/$15.00 put vertical and sell $18.00/$19.00 call vertical	VIX spike or break of $15/$18 quickly blows wings; manage at 50–60% max loss.
Calendar / regular calendar (sell near, buy farther)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-10 ATM (2d) / buy 2026-04-17 ATM (9d) calendar at $16.50 — sell higher IV 68.2% (2d) buy 59.6% (9d) capturing ~8.6 vol-pt edge	Front-week expiry risk and pin release; close into large move or IV collapse.
LEAPS diagonal / PMCC	Moderate	Sell shorter-dated calls against 100d+ LEAPs (e.g., buy 2026-10-16 $16 call, sell 30–45d $18 calls)	Requires time and delta management; long-dated exposure to structural call wall.

Top Plays

Short Put Spread (Defined Risk Premium)

Sell 2026-04-17 $16.00 / buy $15.00 put spread

Collects rich premium inside the 1-week EM with strong GEX pin at $16.50–$17; positive GEX means dealer buying on dips supports spread.

Credit: $0.40-$0.70

Max loss: $0.60

BE: $15.60

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit; cut at 30% of max credit remaining or if spot <$15.00 (gamma flip).

Traders wanting defined-risk premium collection with multi-week horizon

Regular Calendar (Vol arbitrage)

Sell 2026-04-10 ATM (2d) / buy 2026-04-17 ATM (9d) at $16.50 (sell higher IV 68.2%, buy 59.6% — ~8.6 vol-pt edge)

Exploits 2d IV premium vs 9d and the pinning behavior that should limit large moves in the 2d window.

Credit: $0.15-$0.35

Max loss: Limited to calendar debit if opened as buy/sell; typical risk = debit paid (~$0.15–0.35)

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close after front-week expiry or if spot breaks <$15.50 or >$18; take 60% of max profit after scheduled pin expiry.

Vol traders seeking vega-positive exposure with limited directional risk

Iron Condor (Defined, multi-week)

Sell 2026-04-17 $16.50/$15.00 put vertical and sell $18.00/$19.00 call vertical

Leverages positive GEX pin between $15.82–$17.15 and rich IV to collect substantial credit with defined risk.

Credit: $0.90-$1.40

Max loss: $3.10

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit; adjust if spot <$15.50 or >$18.50; widen wings or roll if pinned shifts to $17.

Accounts wanting defined risk premium over 30–45 DTE (prefer roll strategy into 30–45d if maintained)

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $16.50 and holds 30 minutes within the 2d EM ($15.82–$17.15) → Sell 2026-04-17 $16.00 / buy $15.00 put spread

IFIf 2d IV > 68% and 9d IV ≤ 60% at same ATM ($16.50) → Sell 2026-04-10 ATM and buy 2026-04-17 ATM calendar at $16.50 (sell high IV leg).

IFIf unusual print 2026-05-01 $17 put volume continues to accrue (Vol/OI ratio >4) → Buy protection: purchase 2026-05-01 $17 put or tighten short put spread to $16/$15.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot rises to $17.00 and open interest shows increasing call delta pressure near $18 → Take profits on short put spreads and begin selling short-dated $18 calls against LEAP or stock exposures.

ADJIf spot falls and closes <$15.00 (gamma flip) on 1-day basis → Close all short premium; buy 2026-04-17 $15.00 puts or convert spreads to long puts as hedge.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf short put spread P/L reaches 60–70% of max profit → Close the position and recycle premium into next 30–45d iron condor.

EXITIf front-week 2d IV collapses >15 vol-pts or VIX spikes >30 while spot between $15.50–$17.50 → Close calendar/short-dated short premium trades.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: positive GEX pinning between $16.50–$17 produces a short-premium edge (sell defined-risk puts/condors and front-week calendar sells); invalidation: sustained close below ~$15 (gamma flip) which reverses dealer behavior. Top plays: short put spread 4/17 (best for defined-risk income), regular 2d/9d calendar at $16.50 (vol arbitrage), and 4/17 iron condor (defined multi-week).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 8, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.