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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $15.98EOD only
Max Pain
$16.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.68
4.3% from close
Price Gap
+0.02
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
44
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.52
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 26, 2026 close
SOFI Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026
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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with upside magnet to $17 (MP 4/17) and strong pinning around $16; Confidence: 8.5/10.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
Base 8.5: +24.5M GEX concentrated above spot (pinning at $17/$19), bullish net premium $5.3M and low P/C vol (0.39) support upside magnet; elevated IV (avg 73.5%) raises tail risk but also funds premium-selling edge.
Supports: GEX +$2.9M at $16.50 and put floor $15 create buy-side hedge below $16; near-term put OI cluster at $16.00/15.00 offers structural support.
Conflicts: High avg IV 73.5% and skewed long-dated call OI ($18-$22) create asymmetric upside gamma tail; earnings late April (4/28-29) could reprice term structure.
📌Max pain rising to $17 on 4/17 — dealers incentivized to pin up to $17
🧲GEX +$24.5M concentrated at $17/$17.5/$19 — dealers will hedge into strength (pinning)
⚠️Avg IV 73.5% with 21–35d ATM IV jump to 71.4% on 5/01 — expect event-driven kinks

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol: ATM IVs: 7d 53.0% → 14d 54.6% then large step to 21d 71.4%; elevated term IV around earnings window makes buying protection expensive and funds short-premium trades.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning: large positive GEX (+24.5M) concentrated at $16.50, $17.00, $17.50 and $19.00; dealer delta hedging will magnet spot toward these strikes and compress realized move.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish flow: Net premium +$5.3M, P/C vol 0.39 — institutional activity skewed to calls (top call flows $2.47M at $2 strike equivalent, $1.38M at $17).
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot $16.22 is above MP $16 (4/10) and 1.4% below MP $17 (4/17) — small upside bias as MP trend is rising.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentrations persist across the next 2–4 weekly expirations (MP moves $16→$17 over several expirations) and 21–42d IV shows event-pricing; prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$15.26$17.18
Dealer pinning and $16.50/$17 GEX will attract spot; break below $15.00 (gamma flip) would invalidate.
Next 2 weeks
$14.83$17.60
MP for 4/17 is $17 and GEX +$6.9M at $17; sustained flows to calls support move to upper EM bound $17.18.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $16 (2026-04-10); $17 (2026-04-17); $16 (2026-04-24)
EM guardrails: 1w $15.26/$17.18
Support: $16.00 · $15.50 · $15.00
Resistance: $17.00 · $17.50 · $19.00
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,283 (7.5% below spot)
Structural: Call OI wall $18–$22 caps strong rallies; put floor $15 provides structural downside catch and dealer gamma support near $15–$16 for multi-week positioning.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+24.5M

DEX: +111.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$15 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,283 (7.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Positive NTM gamma concentrated at $16.50 (+$2.9M), $17.00 (+$6.9M) and $17.50 (+$6.6M) — dealers will sell delta into rallies (reducing realized upside) and buy into dips; a ~2% move higher increases dealer short-delta (hedging sells) while a ~2% move lower (to ~$15.90) flips put gamma buying behavior and amplifies dealer long-delta support near $15 (gamma flip).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 73.5% — rich vs broad market VIX (higher tail for name-specific risk); short-term IVs 53–55% are lower than 21d+ IV (71.4%), indicating event-term skew.

Term structure: Kink at 21d: 7d ATM 53.0% → 14d 54.6% → 21d 71.4% (large jump into early-May windows/earnings), then settles ~65% in 28–42d.

Skew: Notable mispricing: 21d ATM IV 71.4% vs 42d ATM 65.2% — sell the 21d vol and buy 42d to capture elevated short-term event premium (calendar/diagonal).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $5.3M (bullish) with heavy call flow; P/C vol 0.39 indicates call-heavy activity

Directional prints: 50.6 call 17 OTM 4/17 — $1.38M call flow at $17 (top premium flow) — could be buy-to-open directional or dealer-driven call selling; consistent with net bullish flow, buy-to-open calls more likely. 309.4 call 2 ITM 7/17 — Large notional on $2 strike long-dated calls (4/17–7/17 prints) — labeled ITM; likely structured/transfer trades or deep-intrinsic positions, consistent with long-tail call demand.

Unusual: 67.4 call 2 ITM 8/21 — Long-dated $32 call unusual volume (Vol 8,610 vs OI 391) — large leverage bet but not relevant to near-term hedging; flags long-tail call demand.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$15 would remove dealer pin support and accelerate downside
!Earnings late April (4/28-29) and 21d IV spike (71.4%) can reprice both directions — protection costly
!Concentrated call OI $18–$22 can act as supply; a breakout above $19 without liquidity could see sharp short-squeeze followed by profit-taking
!High avg IV (73.5%) increases cost of outright long options and widens bid/ask slippage

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long stockModerate-Weak
Buy SOFI stock at market
Unbounded downside below $15 gamma flip; capital-intensive
Short stockWeak
Avoid — dealers pinning and bullish flow raise short-squeeze risk
GEX pin and concentrated call OI can fuel short squeezes
Covered callModerate
Buy stock + sell 5/15 17.0C (choose 35–45d expiry around 5/15)
Caps upside at heavy call OI; requires owning shares; earnings volatility reduces carry efficiency
Cash-secured put (CSP)Moderate-Strong
Sell 5/15 15.0P cash-secured (35d)
Gamma flip <$15 increases assignment risk; collect rich IV on 35d puts
Long calls (directional)Moderate-Weak
Buy 4/17 17.0C (7d) for tactical upside to MP
Short-term time decay and possible vol crush; expensive IV relative to short-dated calls
Long puts / bear put spreadModerate
Buy 5/15 15.0P / sell 5/15 14.0P (35d)
Costly given elevated IV but defined risk; useful as defined hedge around earnings
Iron condor (short premium)Moderate-Strong
Sell 4/24 15.0P / buy 4/24 14.0P x sell 4/24 17.5C / buy 4/24 19.0C (14d)
IV collapse or breakout past wings (>$19 or <$14) will hurt; be ready to roll into 35d
Calendar / diagonal (reverse calendar)Strong
Sell 5/15 17.0C (IV 65.7%) / buy 4/17 17.0C (IV 50.6%) — reverse calendar (sold longer-dated higher-IV leg)
Complex: selling longer-dated leg exposes roll risk; trade exploits higher mid-term IV (5/15) vs near-term and collects term premium if short-leg decays faster
PMCC / LEAPS diagonalModerate-Strong
Buy 1/15/27 20.0C financed by selling nearer-dated 5/15 17.0C (if available)
Roll risk and long vega exposure; benefits from long-term gamma vs near-term sold leg
Put spread (short put vertical)Moderate-Strong
Sell 5/15 16.0P / buy 5/15 15.0P (35d)
Gamma bite below $15; defined risk but vulnerable to earnings volatility

Top Plays

#1
Short-dated iron condor (tactical)
Sell 4/24 15.0P / buy 4/24 14.0P x sell 4/24 17.5C / buy 4/24 19.0C
Leverages pinning and positive GEX to collect rich near-term IV while using $15 put support and $19 call wall as wings.
Credit: $0.40-$0.75
Max loss: $1,560
BE: $14.60
Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit; cut if spot <$15.40 or >$19.20 or VIX spikes >10 pts.
Traders wanting defined-risk short premium with quick decay
#2
35d put spread (primary multi-week)
Sell 5/15 16.0P / buy 5/15 15.0P
Collects elevated put IV funded by strong dealer pin support and put floor at $15; aligns with multi-week thesis.
Credit: $0.55-$1.10
Max loss: $0.45
BE: $15.45
Mgmt: Take 50% profit; close if spot <$15.00 or post-earnings IV crush significantly lowers premium.
Accounts wanting defined downside entry or to be assigned at $15
#3
Reverse calendar / diagonal (vol arb)
Sell 5/15 17.0C (IV 65.7%) / buy 4/17 17.0C (IV 50.6%) — reverse calendar
Sells the richer longer-dated 5/15 vol and buys cheaper near-term 4/17 vega to capture term premium if mid-term IV mean-reverts; aligns with 21d IV kink.
Credit: $0.00-$0.35
Max loss: Limited to calendar adjustments
BE: N/A
Mgmt: Close or roll if 4/17 expiry moves >$0.80 from strike or if IV differential narrows <3 vol-pts; buy back short 5/15 leg if spot > $18.
Vol-arb traders comfortable selling mid-term vega and managing roll risk

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot tags $16.50 and holds 30m → Sell 4/24 15.0P/14.0P and 4/24 17.5C/19.0C iron condor
IFIf spot retraces to $16.00 and IV 21d > 70% → Sell 5/15 16.0P / buy 5/15 15.0P put spread
IFIf 5/15 ATM IV ≥ 65.7% and 4/17 ATM IV ≤ 50.6% (>=15 vol-pt differential) → Sell 5/15 17.0C and buy 4/17 17.0C reverse calendar/diagonal
Exit Triggers
EXITIf trade hits 60% of maximum profit → Take profit and lighten short premium exposure
EXITIf post-earnings IV collapses >15 vol-pts and spot within $15–$17 → Close diagonals and short-dated iron condors to lock gains

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealer pinning and bullish flow favor short premium around $16–$17; invalidation is sustained break below $15 (gamma flip) which removes dealer support. Top plays: 4/24 iron condor (tactical, defined-risk), 5/15 short put spread (multi-week), 5/15→4/17 reverse calendar (vol arb) — choose based on time horizon and willingness to manage earnings exposure.
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This directional reflects the market close on April 10, 2026.
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