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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $16.22EOD only

Max Pain

$17.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.96

5.9% from close

Price Gap

+0.78

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.56

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Apr 10, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 10, 2026 close

SOFI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with upside magnet to $17 (MP 4/17) and strong pinning around $16; Confidence: 8.5/10.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 8.5: +24.5M GEX concentrated above spot (pinning at $17/$19), bullish net premium $5.3M and low P/C vol (0.39) support upside magnet; elevated IV (avg 73.5%) raises tail risk but also funds premium-selling edge.

Supports: GEX +$2.9M at $16.50 and put floor $15 create buy-side hedge below $16; near-term put OI cluster at $16.00/15.00 offers structural support.
Conflicts: High avg IV 73.5% and skewed long-dated call OI ($18-$22) create asymmetric upside gamma tail; earnings late April (4/28-29) could reprice term structure.

📌Max pain rising to $17 on 4/17 — dealers incentivized to pin up to $17

🧲GEX +$24.5M concentrated at $17/$17.5/$19 — dealers will hedge into strength (pinning)

⚠️Avg IV 73.5% with 21–35d ATM IV jump to 71.4% on 5/01 — expect event-driven kinks

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol: ATM IVs: 7d 53.0% → 14d 54.6% then large step to 21d 71.4%; elevated term IV around earnings window makes buying protection expensive and funds short-premium trades.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: large positive GEX (+24.5M) concentrated at $16.50, $17.00, $17.50 and $19.00; dealer delta hedging will magnet spot toward these strikes and compress realized move.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow: Net premium +$5.3M, P/C vol 0.39 — institutional activity skewed to calls (top call flows $2.47M at $2 strike equivalent, $1.38M at $17).

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $16.22 is above MP $16 (4/10) and 1.4% below MP $17 (4/17) — small upside bias as MP trend is rising.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentrations persist across the next 2–4 weekly expirations (MP moves $16→$17 over several expirations) and 21–42d IV shows event-pricing; prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$15.26$17.18

Dealer pinning and $16.50/$17 GEX will attract spot; break below $15.00 (gamma flip) would invalidate.

Next 2 weeks

$14.83$17.60

MP for 4/17 is $17 and GEX +$6.9M at $17; sustained flows to calls support move to upper EM bound $17.18.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $16 (2026-04-10); $17 (2026-04-17); $16 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 1w $15.26/$17.18

Support: $16.00 · $15.50 · $15.00

Resistance: $17.00 · $17.50 · $19.00

Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,283 (7.5% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall $18–$22 caps strong rallies; put floor $15 provides structural downside catch and dealer gamma support near $15–$16 for multi-week positioning.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+24.5M

DEX: +111.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$15 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,283 (7.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Positive NTM gamma concentrated at $16.50 (+$2.9M), $17.00 (+$6.9M) and $17.50 (+$6.6M) — dealers will sell delta into rallies (reducing realized upside) and buy into dips; a ~2% move higher increases dealer short-delta (hedging sells) while a ~2% move lower (to ~$15.90) flips put gamma buying behavior and amplifies dealer long-delta support near $15 (gamma flip).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 73.5% — rich vs broad market VIX (higher tail for name-specific risk); short-term IVs 53–55% are lower than 21d+ IV (71.4%), indicating event-term skew.

Term structure: Kink at 21d: 7d ATM 53.0% → 14d 54.6% → 21d 71.4% (large jump into early-May windows/earnings), then settles ~65% in 28–42d.

Skew: Notable mispricing: 21d ATM IV 71.4% vs 42d ATM 65.2% — sell the 21d vol and buy 42d to capture elevated short-term event premium (calendar/diagonal).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $5.3M (bullish) with heavy call flow; P/C vol 0.39 indicates call-heavy activity

Directional prints: 50.6 call 17 OTM 4/17 — $1.38M call flow at $17 (top premium flow) — could be buy-to-open directional or dealer-driven call selling; consistent with net bullish flow, buy-to-open calls more likely. 309.4 call 2 ITM 7/17 — Large notional on $2 strike long-dated calls (4/17–7/17 prints) — labeled ITM; likely structured/transfer trades or deep-intrinsic positions, consistent with long-tail call demand.

Unusual: 67.4 call 2 ITM 8/21 — Long-dated $32 call unusual volume (Vol 8,610 vs OI 391) — large leverage bet but not relevant to near-term hedging; flags long-tail call demand.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$15 would remove dealer pin support and accelerate downside

!Earnings late April (4/28-29) and 21d IV spike (71.4%) can reprice both directions — protection costly

!Concentrated call OI $18–$22 can act as supply; a breakout above $19 without liquidity could see sharp short-squeeze followed by profit-taking

!High avg IV (73.5%) increases cost of outright long options and widens bid/ask slippage

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy SOFI stock at market	Unbounded downside below $15 gamma flip; capital-intensive
Short stock	Weak	Avoid — dealers pinning and bullish flow raise short-squeeze risk	GEX pin and concentrated call OI can fuel short squeezes
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 5/15 17.0C (choose 35–45d expiry around 5/15)	Caps upside at heavy call OI; requires owning shares; earnings volatility reduces carry efficiency
Cash-secured put (CSP)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/15 15.0P cash-secured (35d)	Gamma flip <$15 increases assignment risk; collect rich IV on 35d puts
Long calls (directional)	Moderate-Weak	Buy 4/17 17.0C (7d) for tactical upside to MP	Short-term time decay and possible vol crush; expensive IV relative to short-dated calls
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 5/15 15.0P / sell 5/15 14.0P (35d)	Costly given elevated IV but defined risk; useful as defined hedge around earnings
Iron condor (short premium)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/24 15.0P / buy 4/24 14.0P x sell 4/24 17.5C / buy 4/24 19.0C (14d)	IV collapse or breakout past wings (>$19 or <$14) will hurt; be ready to roll into 35d
Calendar / diagonal (reverse calendar)	Strong	Sell 5/15 17.0C (IV 65.7%) / buy 4/17 17.0C (IV 50.6%) — reverse calendar (sold longer-dated higher-IV leg)	Complex: selling longer-dated leg exposes roll risk; trade exploits higher mid-term IV (5/15) vs near-term and collects term premium if short-leg decays faster
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 1/15/27 20.0C financed by selling nearer-dated 5/15 17.0C (if available)	Roll risk and long vega exposure; benefits from long-term gamma vs near-term sold leg
Put spread (short put vertical)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/15 16.0P / buy 5/15 15.0P (35d)	Gamma bite below $15; defined risk but vulnerable to earnings volatility

Top Plays

Short-dated iron condor (tactical)

Sell 4/24 15.0P / buy 4/24 14.0P x sell 4/24 17.5C / buy 4/24 19.0C

Leverages pinning and positive GEX to collect rich near-term IV while using $15 put support and $19 call wall as wings.

Credit: $0.40-$0.75

Max loss: $1,560

BE: $14.60

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit; cut if spot <$15.40 or >$19.20 or VIX spikes >10 pts.

Traders wanting defined-risk short premium with quick decay

35d put spread (primary multi-week)

Sell 5/15 16.0P / buy 5/15 15.0P

Collects elevated put IV funded by strong dealer pin support and put floor at $15; aligns with multi-week thesis.

Credit: $0.55-$1.10

Max loss: $0.45

BE: $15.45

Mgmt: Take 50% profit; close if spot <$15.00 or post-earnings IV crush significantly lowers premium.

Accounts wanting defined downside entry or to be assigned at $15

Reverse calendar / diagonal (vol arb)

Sell 5/15 17.0C (IV 65.7%) / buy 4/17 17.0C (IV 50.6%) — reverse calendar

Sells the richer longer-dated 5/15 vol and buys cheaper near-term 4/17 vega to capture term premium if mid-term IV mean-reverts; aligns with 21d IV kink.

Credit: $0.00-$0.35

Max loss: Limited to calendar adjustments

Mgmt: Close or roll if 4/17 expiry moves >$0.80 from strike or if IV differential narrows <3 vol-pts; buy back short 5/15 leg if spot > $18.

Vol-arb traders comfortable selling mid-term vega and managing roll risk

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $16.50 and holds 30m → Sell 4/24 15.0P/14.0P and 4/24 17.5C/19.0C iron condor

IFIf spot retraces to $16.00 and IV 21d > 70% → Sell 5/15 16.0P / buy 5/15 15.0P put spread

IFIf 5/15 ATM IV ≥ 65.7% and 4/17 ATM IV ≤ 50.6% (>=15 vol-pt differential) → Sell 5/15 17.0C and buy 4/17 17.0C reverse calendar/diagonal

Exit Triggers

EXITIf trade hits 60% of maximum profit → Take profit and lighten short premium exposure

EXITIf post-earnings IV collapses >15 vol-pts and spot within $15–$17 → Close diagonals and short-dated iron condors to lock gains

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealer pinning and bullish flow favor short premium around $16–$17; invalidation is sustained break below $15 (gamma flip) which removes dealer support. Top plays: 4/24 iron condor (tactical, defined-risk), 5/15 short put spread (multi-week), 5/15→4/17 reverse calendar (vol arb) — choose based on time horizon and willingness to manage earnings exposure.

Read the Directional analysis for SOFI for 2026-04-10. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.