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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $15.62EOD only

Max Pain

$16.00

Next expiry May 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.78

5.0% from close

Price Gap

+0.38

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.52

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

SOFI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

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You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-slightly-bullish with a near-term magnet to $16/$17 (Max Pain) and concentration of positive dealer gamma supporting range-bound action; Confidence: 6.0/10.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 6.0 from pre-computed factors: +$58.5M GEX (pinning) and MP near spot (+0.7%); offset by mixed flow (net premium -$1.8M) and very high IV (ATM 76.4% 3d) increasing tail risk.

Supports: GEX concentrations at $16.50 (+$14.3M) and $17.00 (+$17.5M); Max Pain $16 (4/10) then $17 (4/17+); gamma flip ~$15 providing dealer buying below $15.
Conflicts: Net premium slightly negative (-$1.8M) and mixed P/C volume (0.98) plus very high short-dated IV (76.4% 4/10) which makes premium expensive for selling if a volatility spike hits.

📌Pinning to $16–$17 driven by +$58.5M GEX concentration (notably +$17.5M at $17.00)

⚖️High IV (ATM 76.4% 3d, 66.2% 10d) makes short-dated premium rich but term-structure inversion (24–45d bump) creates calendar edges

🛡️Gamma flip ~ $15 is the tactical invalidation for pin; dealer hedges intensify below $15

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High — ATM IV 76.4% (3d) and 75.0% average; vol-rich for weeklies which favors buying protection or structured sales with defined risk rather than naked short premium.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning — large positive GEX (+$58.5M) concentrated at $16.50–$17.00 which creates an upside magnet and dealer short-delta buys as spot drops toward the pin.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — P/C vol ~0.98, P/C OI 0.55; net premium small negative (-$1.8M) suggests no strong directional institutional sweep; flow sees heavy call OI at $19/$22 and put OI concentrated 15/16.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot $16.11 is At Max Pain $16 (4/10) and close to next MP $17; this aligns with pinning behavior and near-term mean-reversion risks.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — MP moves from $16→$17 across upcoming expirations and GEX concentrations persist at $16.5/$17 across the next 2 expirations; regime likely to persist 2–4 weeks so prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades (weeklies for overlays).

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$15.22$17.00

Sustained trade above $16.50 supports roll to $17; break < $15 (gamma flip) accelerates selling.

Next 1 week

$14.71$17.52

Close > $17.00 likely meets call OI at $17–$19 and slows advance; close < $15 removes pin and boosts downside volatility.

Next 2 weeks

$14.32$17.90

Push above $18 requires decay of GEX and heavy call OI absorption at $19/$22.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $16 (2026-04-10); $17 (2026-04-17); $17 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 2d $15.22/$17.00; 1w $14.71/$17.52

Support: $15.00 · $15.50 · $16.00

Resistance: $17.00 · $18.00 · $19.00

Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,334 (6.9% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall $17–$22 caps upside; put floor concentrated $15–$15 provides structural dealer support and primary gamma flip near $15 for larger moves.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+58.5M

DEX: +115.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$15 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,334 (6.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM gamma is heavily positive around $16.50–$17.00 (GEX +$14.3M at $16.50, +$17.5M at $17.00) — dealers will buy delta into dips and sell into rallies near those pins; a -2% move (≈$15.79) increases dealer delta buying, a +2% move (≈$16.43) reduces short-delta hedges and can allow upside drift to the $17 cluster.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 75.0% vs market (VIX not provided) — short-dated IV particularly rich (76.4% 4/10) making naked premium riskier; longer-dated ATM IV falls to mid-60s 10–45d.

Term structure: Inverted/steep: 3d ATM 76.4% > 10d 66.2% > 17d 64.8%, but a bump at 24d (74.1%) and 31d (71.3%) creates calendar opportunities between 10–45d.

Skew: Skew has cheap longer-dated relative IV around 45d–72d (ATM ~68.4%→64.5%); sell near-term rich IV and buy 30–45d cheaper IV (regular calendar) — e.g., sell 4/10 (76.4%) buy 5/22 (68.4%) ≈ +8.0 vol-pt edge.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium small negative (-$1.8M) — no dominant institutional directional push.

Directional prints: 67.6 put 15 OTM 2026-05-22 — Unusual buyer/folio at 5/22 $15 put (Vol 2,048 vs OI 178) — could be protective put purchases or opening long puts; aligns with cautious tail hedging. 65 put 16 OTM 2026-04-10 — Large short-dated put OI (57,458) with heavy volume — could be sellers legging into pin or dealers hedging; more consistent with gamma pinning and short-put accumulation.

Unusual: 111.7 put 8 OTM 2026-05-15 — Very small-dollar long-dated $8 put flow (Vol 2,412, OI 173) — tail protection; low immediate relevance but signals institutional long-tail hedges.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near $15 (dealer buying intensifies) — breach accelerates downside and invalidates pin thesis.

!Very high short-dated IV (76.4% 4/10) — sudden vol spike would blow out short-premium trades.

!Max Pain shifts and large call OI at $19/$22 could cap rallies and cause sharp mean reversion if dealers deleverage.

!Upcoming earnings 4/28–29 could re-price vol into late April, adding directionality past the current multi-week thesis.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at market $16.11	High short-term IV and pin risk; unsuitable without hedge.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid — dealer gamma and MP support oppose naked short	Gamma will work against shorts near $15–$17.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy 100 shares + sell 5/22 17.00 call (30–45 DTE)	Capped upside at heavy call OI; assignment risk if >17.
Cash-secured put	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/22 15.00 put (30–45 DTE) cash-secured	Gamma flip <$15; assigned shares at 15 if pin breaks.
Long call	Moderate-Weak	Buy 4/17 17.00 call (10d) for directional upside	High theta and rich IV; expensive for pure directional unless strong catalyst.
Long put / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 5/22 15.00 put / sell 5/22 13.50 put (38–45 DTE)	Limited loss but needs meaningful downside; premium funded by lower IV in 45d leg.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/22 15.00/13.50 put spread + sell 5/22 18.00/18.50 call spread (45 DTE)	Vol spike or breach <$15 or rally >18.50 blows wings; IV term supports selling front rich vs 45d cheaper.
Calendar (regular)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/10 16.50 call, buy 5/22 16.50 call (sell higher-IV front, buy lower-IV back) — sell 76.4% buy 68.4% (~+8 vol-pt)	Short front-week gamma; needs spot range-stability into expiry.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 5/22 15.00 call, sell 4/10 17.00 call (regular calendar style) or buy 7/17 LEAP call and sell nearer-term calls (if available)	Requires directional up move and positive carry; IV movement can hurt leg valuations.
Protective collar (if long stock)	Moderate	Own stock + buy 5/22 15.00 put + sell 5/22 18.00 call	Cap upside; net cost depends on put IV; good for position protection.

Top Plays

Sell 5/22 15/13.5 put spread

Sell 5/22 15.00 / Buy 5/22 13.50 put spread

Defined-risk short put spread collects elevated mid-term IV while sitting above gamma flip; benefits from pin and positive dealer gamma.

Credit: $0.60-$1.20

Max loss: $12.90

BE: $14.40

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit; cut if spot < $15 or IV spikes > +10 pts.

Traders wanting defined short-premium with multi-week edge

Sell 5/22 Iron Condor (15/13.5P x 18/18.5C)

Sell 5/22 15.00/13.50 put spread and 18.00/18.50 call spread

Harvests rich short-dated front IV via calendar/wing placement and uses structural call OI as resistance; defined risk across multi-week thesis.

Credit: $0.50-$1.30

Max loss: $14.50

BE: Below 13.20 / Above 19.30

Mgmt: Take 50% profit; buy back if spot < $15 or > $18.50 with rising IV.

Income traders comfortable with defined wings and margin

Regular calendar sell 4/10 16.5 call buy 5/22 16.5 call

Sell 4/10 16.50 call (front rich IV 76.4%) & buy 5/22 16.50 call (back 68.4%)

Exploits 8 vol-pt front/back inversion; benefits if spot remains pinned 16–17 into weekly expiry.

Credit: $0.10-$0.40

Max loss: Limited to calendar negative carry (monitor leg widths)

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close front leg if spot > $17 or if front IV falls < back IV; close at 60% realized profit.

Tactical short-gamma sellers and nimble traders

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot trades and holds $16.00 for 30 minutes → Sell 5/22 15.00/13.50 put spread

IFIf spot rallies and stalls at $17.00 for 2 consecutive 30-min bars → Sell 5/22 18.00/18.50 call spread as part of iron condor

IFIf front-week IV (4/10 ATM) > 75% while 5/22 ATM ≤ 69% → Establish regular calendar: sell 4/10 16.50 call, buy 5/22 16.50 call

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot drops below $15.00 (gamma flip) → Buy protection: close short put spread and buy 5/22 15.00 put or roll to lower strikes

ADJIf spot rises above $18.50 with >50% of weekly volume to 18.50 calls → Reduce upside call spreads in iron condor (buy back 18.00/18.50 calls) or roll higher

Exit Triggers

EXITIf trade reaches 50–70% of max profit → Take profit and reduce position size

EXITIf IV front-week increases > +10 vol-pts intraday → Close short premium positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week pin to $16–$17 supported by +$58.5M GEX; prefer defined short-premium structures and regular calendars into 30–45 DTE. Invalidation: sustained break and close < $15 (gamma flip) which would flip dealer behavior and favor long-protection/puts. Top plays: 5/22 15/13.5 put spread (defined short premium), 5/22 iron condor (wings 15/13.5 & 18/18.5), and 4/10→5/22 regular calendar at 16.50 for IV arb and pin capture.

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This directional reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.

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Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.