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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $17.05EOD only

Max Pain

$17.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.84

4.9% from close

Price Gap

-0.05

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.56

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Apr 13, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 13, 2026 close

SOFI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term magnet to $17 driven by strong positive GEX pinning and concentrated call flow; Confidence: 9.0/10 (base). Top supports: GEX +$80.5M concentrated at $17.00–$17.50, heavy call premium at $17 and $19, and Max Pain anchored at $17 across near expirations; conflict: very high ATM IV (Avg IV 72.5%) which widens tails and favors defined-risk structures over naked directional longs.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 9.0/10 per pre-computed: +80.5M GEX pinning, net premium +$9.7M bullish, spot 0.3% from MP; no overriding catalyst beyond scheduled earnings 4/28-29 which is outside the immediate pin window.

Supports: GEX concentrations at $17.00 (+$15.0M) and $17.50 (+$16.4M), put OI floor $15-$16 creating dealer buying below $15 (gamma flip ~$15).
Conflicts: Very high Avg IV 72.5% and elevated short-dated IV curve kink 52.7% (4d) -> 70.9% (18d) increases option costs; SPY/QQQ strength could pull SOFI higher but also compress vol.

📌GEX pin concentrated at $17.00 and $17.50 (combined +$31.4M) — strong short-term mean reversion pressure

💨Avg IV 72.5% with a mid-term ATM spike to 70.9% at 18d — selling premium captures rich term structure

🧭Max Pain flat at ~$17 across expirations — structural magnet over multi-week horizon

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High: Avg IV 72.5% well above market VIX 19.12 — favors defined-risk credit strategies and protection for directional trades.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: large positive GEX +$80.5M concentrated at $17.00-$19.00 forces dealer delta hedging that pins spot near $17; gamma flip at ~$15 creates a lower bound.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish: Net premium +$9.7M, heavy call premium at $17/$17.50/$18/$19 indicates institutional buy-side leaning; P/C vol 0.42 supports call-heavy skew.

Spot vs Max Pain

At MP: spot $17.05 ≈ Max Pain $17 (4/17) and $16.50 (4/24) — increases probability of pin-through near-term expiries.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — MP remains ~ $17 across multiple expirations and GEX sign + pinning persists across near-term expirations (concentrations at $17/$17.5/$19 and consistent call flow), so prefer 30–45 DTE for core positions with weeklies for overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$14.85$19.24

GEX concentration at $17.00/$17.50 and 4d EM [$16.21-$17.89] center action; breach <$16.21 would shift dealer hedging down.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $17 (2026-04-17); $16 (2026-04-24); $17 (2026-05-01)

EM guardrails:

Support: $16.50 · $16.00 · $15.00

Resistance: $17.50 · $18.00 · $19.00

Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,305 (12.0% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall $18-$25 will cap rallies; put floor $15-$16 forms structural downside support and marks gamma flip ~ $15 where dealer buying accelerates.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+80.5M

DEX: +112.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$15 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,305 (12.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large positive near-the-money gamma centered at $17.00 (+$15.0M) and $17.50 (+$16.4M) means dealers will buy dips and sell rallies inside ~$15–$19; if spot drops ~2% to ~$16.70 dealers increase put-side hedges converting to stronger buying near $16.00–$15.00; if spot rises +2% to ~$17.40 hedges will require selling shares gradually, which mutes sharp rallies until $18+ where selling pressure from OI walls increases.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 72.5% >> VIX 19.12 — equity-specific vol rich; short-dated IV (4d ATM 52.7%) is lower than 18d ATM 70.9% indicating event/term spike mid-month.

Term structure: Inverted/humped: 4d 52.7% -> 11d 53.6% -> 18d 70.9% then slowly falls to ~62% at 66d — big mid-term kink (likely reflecting earnings/uncertainty around late April/May).

Skew: Skew: calls concentrated and put OI concentrated at $15-$16; mispriced opportunity: sell-later calendar/diagonal (sell 18d high-IV, buy longer-dated lower-IV) captures ~+17 vol-pt differential between 18d (70.9%) and 66d (62.1%) for select strikes.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $9.7M (bullish); P/C vol 0.42 indicates call-dominant execution.

Directional prints: 52.7 call 17 ATM/OTM 2026-04-17 — Heavy premium at $17 (Net $3,136,889 call vs $707,237 put) — could be buys (opening) or sellers (close); in context of net premium and rising OI, more consistent with call buys supporting bullish flow. 49.6 call 19 OTM 2026-04-24 — Large OI 91,807 at $19 with sizable volume suggests institutional positioning for upside hedge/levered calls; bought-call interpretation aligns with bullish flow.

Unusual: 55.7 put 16.5 OTM 2026-04-17 — SOFI260417P00016500: Vol=10,422 vs OI=4,100 (2.5x) — tactical protection or cheap long volatility across pin; could be bought protection (more likely given GEX pin and downside hedging).

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near ~$15 — a drop through $15 would flip dealer behavior and accelerate downside liquidity demand.

!Upcoming earnings 2026-04-28/29 outside immediate expiry but mid-term IV kink could repriced into May expirations.

!High Avg IV (72.5%) raises cost for buying directional exposure and increases risk of vol crush if market calm persists.

!Large concentrated call OI at $19 and $22 — sudden directional buying into those strikes could remove pinning and create gap risk.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy SOFI stock $17.05	High IV/volatility risk; gap down through $15 gamma flip accelerant.
Short stock	Weak	Not recommended — GEX pinning and dealer buy-the-dip hedge behavior	Dealer gamma buys near support will make shorting expensive.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-01 $19.00 call	Loss above $19; IV crush reduces collected premium value.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 $16.00/$15.00 put spread	Break <$15 triggers gamma flip; max loss if assigned to $15.
Long call (directional)	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-01 $19.00 call	High premium (IV 70.9%) — vol crush and time decay hurt if no move.
Long put / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-01 $16.00/$15.00 bear put spread	Expensive protection due to high IV; limited if quick gap down exceeds breakeven.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 $16.50/$15.00 put x $19.00/$20.50 call (defined-risk)	Tail breach beyond wings (spill through $15 or break $20.50) — IV can spike making adjustments pricey.
Calendar / diagonal (sell high-IV near leg)	Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 $17.00 call (IV ~70.9%) buy 2026-06-18 $17.00 call (IV ~62.1%) — sell higher-IV near-term, buy lower-IV farther (+8.8 vol-pt edge)	Directional gap moves will hurt; requires theta decay on near leg and mean reversion into $17 pin.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-18 $15.00 call LEAP-like lot, sell 2026-05-01 $17.00 call (collect higher IV)	Assignment risk if sold call ITM; requires roll management and carries carrying cost.
Protective collar	Moderate	Long stock + buy 2026-05-01 $15.00 put + sell 2026-05-01 $19.00 call	Cap upside at $19; cost depends on put premium (high IV).

Top Plays

Sell May 01 $16.00/$15.00 put spread

Sell 2026-05-01 $16.00/$15.00 put spread

Takes advantage of positive GEX pinning near $17, concentrated put floor at $15-$16, and elevated IV for decent credit; defined risk beneath gamma flip.

Credit: $0.35-$0.55

Max loss: $0.65

BE: $15.65

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of credit; cut if spot < $15.25 or VIX spikes >+6 pts.

Defined-risk premium collectors who accept assignment.

Sell May 01 $17 calendar (sell 18d, buy 66d)

Sell 2026-05-01 $17.00 call (IV ~70.9%) buy 2026-06-18 $17.00 call (IV ~62.1%)

Exploit 8.8 vol-pt differential and pinning at $17; near-term decay on sold leg with longer-term exposure limits directional gamma risk.

Credit: $0.30-$0.60

Max loss: Variable (long leg retains value)

BE: Neutral relative to spot; monitor carry

Mgmt: Close sold leg at 60%/roll out if spot > $18.00; cut if spot < $15.50.

Traders wanting income with limited directional bias; good for rollable income.

Iron Condor May 01 — short premium around the pin

Sell 2026-05-01 $16.50/$15.00 put and $19.00/$20.50 call iron condor

Collects rich mid-term IV while using structural put floor $15 and call wall $19 as natural wings; benefits from GEX pinning to $17.

Credit: $0.90-$1.40

Max loss: $3.60

BE: Lower wing: 16.50 - credit; Upper wing: 20.50 + credit

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit; adjust/roll if spot < $15.50 or > $20.00.

Accounts wanting defined-risk income with mid-term DTE.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot trades and holds $17.00 for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-05-01 $16.00/$15.00 put spread

IFIf 18d ATM IV (2026-05-01) > 68% and 66d IV (2026-06-18) < 64% → Sell 2026-05-01 $17.00 call and buy 2026-06-18 $17.00 call (calendar)

IFIf spot rallies to $18.00 and rejects within 2 sessions → Sell 2026-05-01 $19.00/$20.50 call spread as part of iron condor

Exit Triggers

EXITIf VIX spikes to >25 (from 19.12) and spot < $16.50 → Exit all short premium (close put spreads and calendars)

EXITIf spot > $19.25 (upper 2-week EM) → Take profits on iron condors and covered call positions

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week mean reversion toward $17 supported by large positive GEX and persistent Max Pain; invalidation: sustained break below $15 (gamma flip) or sustained break above $19 (removal of pin). Regime favors short premium/defined-risk credit structures (put spreads, iron condors, calendars); top plays: sell May $16/$15 put spread (defined risk), sell $17 calendar (capture vol term kink), May iron condor for balanced income.

Read the Directional analysis for SOFI for 2026-04-13. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.