SOFI
SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $18.22EOD onlyThis page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
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You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.
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Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term magnet to $17 driven by strong positive GEX pinning and concentrated call flow; Confidence: 9.0/10 (base). Top supports: GEX +$80.5M concentrated at $17.00–$17.50, heavy call premium at $17 and $19, and Max Pain anchored at $17 across near expirations; conflict: very high ATM IV (Avg IV 72.5%) which widens tails and favors defined-risk structures over naked directional longs.
Conflicts: Very high Avg IV 72.5% and elevated short-dated IV curve kink 52.7% (4d) -> 70.9% (18d) increases option costs; SPY/QQQ strength could pull SOFI higher but also compress vol.
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: $+80.5M
DEX: +112.8M shares
Gamma flip: ~$15 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,305 (12.0% below spot))
NTM gamma: Large positive near-the-money gamma centered at $17.00 (+$15.0M) and $17.50 (+$16.4M) means dealers will buy dips and sell rallies inside ~$15–$19; if spot drops ~2% to ~$16.70 dealers increase put-side hedges converting to stronger buying near $16.00–$15.00; if spot rises +2% to ~$17.40 hedges will require selling shares gradually, which mutes sharp rallies until $18+ where selling pressure from OI walls increases.
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: Avg IV 72.5% >> VIX 19.12 — equity-specific vol rich; short-dated IV (4d ATM 52.7%) is lower than 18d ATM 70.9% indicating event/term spike mid-month.
Term structure: Inverted/humped: 4d 52.7% -> 11d 53.6% -> 18d 70.9% then slowly falls to ~62% at 66d — big mid-term kink (likely reflecting earnings/uncertainty around late April/May).
Skew: Skew: calls concentrated and put OI concentrated at $15-$16; mispriced opportunity: sell-later calendar/diagonal (sell 18d high-IV, buy longer-dated lower-IV) captures ~+17 vol-pt differential between 18d (70.9%) and 66d (62.1%) for select strikes.
Flow Analysis
Net premium: + $9.7M (bullish); P/C vol 0.42 indicates call-dominant execution.
Directional prints: 52.7 call 17 ATM/OTM 2026-04-17 — Heavy premium at $17 (Net $3,136,889 call vs $707,237 put) — could be buys (opening) or sellers (close); in context of net premium and rising OI, more consistent with call buys supporting bullish flow. 49.6 call 19 OTM 2026-04-24 — Large OI 91,807 at $19 with sizable volume suggests institutional positioning for upside hedge/levered calls; bought-call interpretation aligns with bullish flow.
Unusual: 55.7 put 16.5 OTM 2026-04-17 — SOFI260417P00016500: Vol=10,422 vs OI=4,100 (2.5x) — tactical protection or cheap long volatility across pin; could be bought protection (more likely given GEX pin and downside hedging).
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long stock | Moderate-Weak | Buy SOFI stock $17.05 | High IV/volatility risk; gap down through $15 gamma flip accelerant. |
| Short stock | Weak | Not recommended — GEX pinning and dealer buy-the-dip hedge behavior | Dealer gamma buys near support will make shorting expensive. |
| Covered call | Moderate | Buy stock + sell 2026-05-01 $19.00 call | Loss above $19; IV crush reduces collected premium value. |
| Cash-secured put / put spread | Moderate-Strong | Sell 2026-05-01 $16.00/$15.00 put spread | Break <$15 triggers gamma flip; max loss if assigned to $15. |
| Long call (directional) | Moderate-Weak | Buy 2026-05-01 $19.00 call | High premium (IV 70.9%) — vol crush and time decay hurt if no move. |
| Long put / bear put spread | Moderate-Weak | Buy 2026-05-01 $16.00/$15.00 bear put spread | Expensive protection due to high IV; limited if quick gap down exceeds breakeven. |
| Iron condor | Moderate-Strong | Sell 2026-05-01 $16.50/$15.00 put x $19.00/$20.50 call (defined-risk) | Tail breach beyond wings (spill through $15 or break $20.50) — IV can spike making adjustments pricey. |
| Calendar / diagonal (sell high-IV near leg) | Strong | Sell 2026-05-01 $17.00 call (IV ~70.9%) buy 2026-06-18 $17.00 call (IV ~62.1%) — sell higher-IV near-term, buy lower-IV farther (+8.8 vol-pt edge) | Directional gap moves will hurt; requires theta decay on near leg and mean reversion into $17 pin. |
| PMCC / LEAPS diagonal | Moderate-Strong | Buy 2026-06-18 $15.00 call LEAP-like lot, sell 2026-05-01 $17.00 call (collect higher IV) | Assignment risk if sold call ITM; requires roll management and carries carrying cost. |
| Protective collar | Moderate | Long stock + buy 2026-05-01 $15.00 put + sell 2026-05-01 $19.00 call | Cap upside at $19; cost depends on put premium (high IV). |
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Watchlist Triggers
Tactical Summary
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