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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $15.69EOD only

Max Pain

$15.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.59

3.8% from close

Price Gap

-0.19

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.52

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

SOFI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 28, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

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You are viewing an older report from March 28, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Outlook

Bearish with a weak upward magnet to $17 (max pain). Confidence: 5/10. Negative GEX (-$16.3M) and net negative premium (-$17M) signal trending downside pressure, overwhelming the distant pin. Broad market stress (VIX 31, QQQ -1.95%) reinforces the negative bias.

Confidence:

5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (negative GEX, net premium negative); -1 spot 10.4% from MP; -1 VIX 31.0 (broad market stress).

Supports: Negative GEX (-$16.3M) amplifies moves; Net premium -$17M with P/C vol 0.98 (balanced but premium bearish); Strong put OI floor at $15.00.
Conflicts: Spot ($15.23) is far below max pain ($17), creating a weak upward pinning force; Call OI walls at $19+ provide distant resistance.

⚠️Negative GEX regime persists: dealer hedging will accelerate any move, especially below $15.

📉Net premium -$17M is a significant bearish flow signal.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 79.1% is extreme (VIX 31), favoring premium sellers but requiring defined risk due to trending gamma.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$16.3M indicates dealers are net short gamma; hedging accelerates price moves, especially below the ~$15 gamma flip.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow is mixed (P/C vol 0.98) but net premium is decisively negative (-$17M), signaling institutional bearishness or hedging.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot is 10.4% below max pain, creating a weak upward magnet that is currently overpowered by negative gamma and flow.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder is flat at ~$17-$18 across April and May, and negative GEX is a structural feature. The bearish flow regime and high IV environment are not isolated to one expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$14.21$16.24

Negative GEX dominates; a break below $15 triggers accelerated selling.

Next 2 weeks

$13.61$16.85

Downside favored; rally toward $16.24 (EM high) likely capped by dealer hedging.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $17 (2026-03-27); $17 (2026-04-02); $17 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $14.21/$16.24

Support: $15.00

Resistance: $19.00 · $22.00 · $30.00

Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,570

Structural: Massive call OI walls at $19, $22, $25, and $30 cap any sustained rally. The $15 put floor (71,570 OI) is critical support; a break opens air to the $12-$13 zone.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-16.3M

DEX: +116.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$15 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,570)

NTM gamma: Dealers are net short gamma. A move below $15 triggers accelerated selling as they delta-hedge short puts. A move above $16 sees less aggressive buying due to long call exposure from sold calls.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 79.1% vs VIX 31.0 — extremely rich, offering high nominal edge to premium sellers but paired with high single-stock risk.

Term structure: Humped: 5/01 expiry peaks at 77.5% vs ~69% for surrounding months, suggesting an event or earnings anticipation. Near-term (4/02) IV at 64.5% is relatively lower.

Skew: Near-term (4/02) IV ~15 vol points cheaper than 5/01 — supports a reverse calendar (sell May, buy April) for vol differential harvest.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$17.0M bearish; P/C vol 0.98 (balanced) but P/C OI 0.60 shows more put OI.

Directional prints: $16P 4/02 vol 17,247 vs OI 73,331 — large volume at key strike, could be opening new bearish bets or rolling existing hedges. $15.50C 4/02 vol 7,280 vs OI 455 (16x) — likely bought calls as a bullish hedge or speculative bet against the dominant bear flow.

Unusual: $9P 4/17 vol 8,039 at IV 149.2% — deep ITM put with massive IV, likely a complex financing or collar trade, not a directional signal.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$15: Break below triggers accelerated dealer selling and a potential washout to $13-$14.

!Extreme IV (79.1%): Creates severe time decay for long premium positions.

!Broad market stress (VIX 31, QQQ -1.95%): High-beta fintech like SOFI is vulnerable to further sector-wide selling.

!Pin release: If spot remains far from $17 MP, volatility may spike around weekly expiries.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long Stock	Weak	Buy shares at $15.23	Negative GEX amplifies downturns; defined risk strategies offer better R/R.
Short Stock	Moderate	Short shares at $15.23, stop above $16.50	Weak pin to $17 and high borrow costs; better expressed via puts.
Covered Call	Moderate	Buy stock at $15.23, sell 4/17 $18 Call (~$0.30 credit)	Full downside exposure remains; best for existing shareholders wanting yield.
Cash-Secured Put / Put Spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/01 $15 Put (~$1.40 credit) or $15/$14 Put Spread 4/17	Assignment at $15; spread defines risk below key support.
Long Calls	Weak	Avoid due to extreme IV, negative GEX, and distant max pain.	IV crush and time decay are severe; pin to $17 caps upside.
Long Puts / Bear Put Spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 4/17 $16 Put, sell $15 Put for ~$0.45 debit (bear put spread)	Weak pin to $17; defined risk below $15.55 breakeven.
Iron Condor	Moderate-Weak	$14/$14.50P x $16.50/$17C 4/17 (outside EM bounds)	Negative GEX makes range breaks more likely; wings must be very wide.
Calendar/Diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/01 $17 Call (IV 77.5%), buy 4/17 $16 Call (IV 69.1%) for a ~$0.15 credit (reverse calendar).	Requires spot to stay between $16-$17 through April expiry.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate	Buy Jan 2027 $15 Call (~$5.00), sell monthly ~$1-2 OTM calls against it.	High capital outlay; long-dated IV still elevated at ~69%.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread (Defined Risk)

Buy 4/17 $16 Put, Sell 4/17 $15 Put

Directly expresses the dominant bearish flow and negative GEX regime with defined risk. Profits if spot drifts down to the $15 support or breaks lower, while the short $15 put provides a hedge against the weak upward pin.

Debit: $0.40-$0.50

Max loss: $0.60

BE: $15.55

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max profit ($0.20-$0.30). Exit if spot closes above $16.50. Roll down if $15 support breaks decisively.

Traders with a bearish bias seeking to limit risk in a high-vol, trending environment.

Cash-Secured Put at Key Support (30+ DTE)

Sell 5/01 $15 Put

Collects extreme premium (IV 77.5%) at the major put OI support floor. The extra DTE improves the probability of the weak pin to $17 playing out over time, while the elevated IV provides a high yield on collateral. Better than the 4/17 put due to richer vol and more time for the stock to stabilize.

Credit: $1.40-$1.60

Max loss: $15.00

BE: $13.60

Mgmt: Close at 70% max profit (~$1.10). Roll down and out if $15 is breached with high volume. Accept assignment if still bullish long-term.

Investors willing to own SOFI at $15 or premium sellers wanting high yield with more time for thesis to work.

Reverse Call Calendar (Vol Differential)

Sell 5/01 $17 Call, Buy 4/17 $16 Call

Exploits the IV term structure kink by selling the richer May vol (77.5%) and buying cheaper April vol (69.1%). Profits if spot stays between $16-$17 through April expiry, benefiting from pinning and IV decay differential. This is a neutral-to-bearish vol trade that doesn't require a large directional move.

Credit: $0.10-$0.20

Max loss: N/A

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close if April IV rises relative to May. Manage short call risk if spot rallies above $17.50. Target 50% of max credit.

Neutral traders comfortable with pinning dynamics, seeking to harvest vol differential with a bearish lean.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot breaks below $15.00 with volume > 1.5x average → Enter bear put spread: Buy 4/17 $15.50 Put, Sell $14.50 Put.

IFSpot rallies to tag $16.50 (near 1w EM high) and stalls → Sell 4/17 $17/$18 call credit spread.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $17.00 (max pain) on two consecutive days → Exit all bearish positions (puts, bear spreads).

EXIT5/01 $15 Put reaches 70% of max profit (~$1.10 credit) → Close position to lock in gains.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Bearish regime dominated by negative GEX and bearish flow, with a weak upward pin to $17 providing distant resistance. The regime favors defined-risk directional bearish plays and premium selling at key support. Invalidation: a sustained close above $17.00. Top plays: 1) Bear put spread for defined-risk bears, 2) 30+ DTE CSP at $15 for premium sellers/investors, 3) Reverse calendar for neutral vol traders with a bearish lean.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 28, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.