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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $30.63EOD only
Max Pain
$32.00
Next expiry Jul 2, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.45
8.0% from close
Price Gap
+1.37
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
30
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.75
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Jun 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 26, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

SMCI earnings setup mixed with bearish flow signals but elevated IV.

Confidence:
5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 10.6% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Most important: Large put volume near the money indicates hedging ahead of earnings.
🔔Put volume at $28 strike (1.06 last, vol/OI 13.8) just below spot signals concern.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$20.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 28,395 (29.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (36 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-07-02 (3d): ±$2.29 (8.1%)
  • 2026-07-10 (11d): ±$3.53 (12.5%)
  • 2026-07-17 (18d): ±$4.50 (16.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Inverted: short-dated IV elevated (~74%) vs longer-dated (~60%), reflecting event premium.

Crush estimate: Moderate crush post-earnings, likely to 50-60%.

Skew: Put skew elevated due to heavy put demand.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Average move slightly less than implied (60% beat rate but no big outsized moves).

Directional bias: No strong historical directional bias.

Key Levels

1$20.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $25.86/$30.44
3Max pain pins: $32 (2026-07-02); $32 (2026-07-10); $35 (2026-07-17)

Flow Highlights

Unusual 79x vol/OI call buying at Jul31 $36 strike.

Speculative long-dated OTM call, possible upside bet on positive earnings surprise.

Multiple Jul2 and Jul10 put strikes with high vol/OI ratios (10x-17x), notably $28, $25, $27.5, $22, $20.

Institutional hedging or bearish positioning ahead of earnings, building downside protection.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-02 $25.00/$24.00 put wing and $32.00/$33.00 call wing
Credit: $0.14-$0.17
Max loss: $0.83
Max gain: $0.17
BE: 24.83 / 32.17
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings.
No directional bias and elevated IV favor premium decay.
Outperforms: Sells wings to capture time decay and IV contraction.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-08-21 $25.00 put + buy $37.00 call
Debit: $3.69-$4.52
Max loss: $4.52
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 20.48 / 41.52
Trigger: Set stop loss if IV collapses or stock stays flat.
Lower premium than straddle; profits from large move with cheaper cost.
Outperforms: Buys OTM options for leveraged exposure to volatility.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Long Straddle
Buy 2026-08-21 $30.00 put + buy $30.00 call
Debit: $7.70-$9.41
Max loss: $9.41
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 20.59 / 39.41
Trigger: Adjust or close if IV drops significantly.
Highest premium; requires larger move to overcome theta and IV crush.
Outperforms: Buys ATM options for pure volatility play.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!IV crush could be severe if stock remains range-bound.
!High put OI may cap upside if stock rallies.
!Spot below max pain ($32) and structural call wall, resistance likely.

What to Watch

?Implied volatility change and option volume leading into earnings.
?Any large block trades at key strikes $25 and $32.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.