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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $30.85EOD only
Max Pain
$31.50
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.26
7.3% from close
Price Gap
+0.65
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
60
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 15, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

SMCI earnings in 49 days; IV elevated with steep term structure. Bullish flow with strong call buying; historical beat rate 60% but not decisive. Spot near support $25.33, resistance $30-$33.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 7.2% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: Unusual call volume in June 26 $31 and $33.5 strikes suggests upside targeting; note high IV crush risk post-event.
📈Bullish call flow but high IV warrants caution

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (49 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (2d): ±$1.66 (5.7%)
  • 2026-06-26 (10d): ±$3.11 (10.6%)
  • 2026-07-02 (16d): ±$3.89 (13.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Contango: 2d ±5.7%, 10d ±10.6%, 16d ±13.3%

Crush estimate: Significant crush; IV likely drops ~50% after event

Skew: Put skew elevated far-dated; call OI heavy $32-$40

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Directional bias: Bullish bias from flow and GEX

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $27.56/$30.87; 1w $26.11/$32.33
2Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-18); $32 (2026-06-26); $35 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call sweeps at $31 and $33.5 strikes for June 26; vol/oi ratios >10

Aggressive call buying implies bullish expectations; potential gamma positioning

Strategies

Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $30.00/$34.00 call spread
Debit: $1.26-$1.55
Max loss: $1.55
Max gain: $2.45
BE: $31.55
Trigger: Exit if spot < $25.33; take profit near $34.
Unusual call flow and support at $25.33 signal upside; limited risk.
Outperforms: Debit spread profits if SMCI rises above $30; max profit at $34.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-08-21 $25.00 put + buy $34.00 call
Debit: $4.57-$5.59
Max loss: $5.59
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 19.41 / 39.59
Trigger: Monitor for IV crush; adjust if spot moves.
Elevated IV and bullish flow may drive large move; strangle captures swing.
Outperforms: Wide strangle profits from big move; high IV but premium offset by strikes.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings far out (49 days); IV decay may erode premium
!Spot below call chains; need catalyst to reach targets
!High IV may amplify moves

What to Watch

?$30 resistance break could trigger upside
?IV crush around earnings; monitor VIX
?OI at $32 and $35 call walls
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.