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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $30.66EOD only
Max Pain
$30.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.85
9.3% from close
Price Gap
-0.16
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.67
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

SMCI bullish setup with strong call flow and 60% beat rate. Gamma pin at $30, spot above. High IV offers premium selling opportunity.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 VIX 16
Most important: Aggressive call buying and gamma pin at $30 suggest near-term upside bias despite elevated IV.
📈Call volume ratio 0.67 vs 0.37 PCR; bull flow dominant.
⚠️Earnings distant; IV crush risk if no catalyst.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,813 (2.2% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (47 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (8d): ±$2.85 (9.3%)
  • 2026-07-02 (14d): ±$3.74 (12.2%)
  • 2026-07-10 (22d): ±$4.80 (15.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep contango; near-term IV high (9.3% 1w move). Post-earnings crush ~50%.

Crush estimate: ~50-60%

Skew: Call skew elevated; put IV higher on Jun26 OTM puts.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Beat rate 60%; moves inline with implied.

Directional bias: Bullish from beat rate and call flow.

Key Levels

1$30.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $27.80/$33.51
3Max pain pins: $30 (2026-06-18); $30 (2026-06-26); $30 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Massive put print (8854 vol) on $30.5 put for Jun18; low premium (0.02) suggests closing or floor.

Put floor at $30 reinforces gamma pin.

Heavy call accumulation: Jun26 $31.5C (6502 vol) and $30C (6238 vol).

Aggressive upside positioning into earnings.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $28.00/$26.00 put wing and $33.50/$35.00 call wing
Credit: $0.44-$0.53
Max loss: $1.47
Max gain: $0.53
BE: 27.47 / 34.03
Trigger: Adjust wings if spot approaches short strikes or close before earnings.
Best fit for neutral bias, high contango, and defined risk.
Outperforms: Sell wings to capture premium decay with tight risk.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-10 $32.00 call / buy 2026-07-24 $30.00 call
Debit: $1.50-$1.84
Max loss: $1.84
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll short call if spot stays above strike; let long run.
Exploits bullish call flow and high near-term IV with limited upside.
Outperforms: Short near-term call funds long back-month delta.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma pin at $30 may cap upside near term.
!High IV decay if no catalyst before earnings.
!Earnings 47 days out; time decay and vol risk.

What to Watch

?Spot vs $30 gamma pin
?Call OI build at $33-$40
?VIX and QQQ momentum
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.