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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $30.66EOD only
Max Pain
$30.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.85
9.3% from close
Price Gap
-0.16
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.67
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

SMCI 43d to earnings. High IV, bullish flow, heavy call buying at $36. Spot $35.45, resistance $41.2. Historical beat 60%.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 16.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Massive $36 call volume points to upside conviction. Gamma flip at $30 is key risk.
📈$36 call: 27k vol vs 2.3k OI – huge bullish bet.
⚠️Gamma flip at $30; spot $35.45 – pinning risk if selloff.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,025 (15.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (43 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (4d): ±$3.36 (9.5%)
  • 2026-07-02 (10d): ±$4.62 (13.0%)
  • 2026-07-10 (18d): ±$5.75 (16.2%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping; 4d IV ~100%, 18d IV ~160%.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings crush ~50-70% from current elevated levels.

Skew: Call skew elevated; puts concentrated at $30-$36.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Implied 9.5% for 4d; historical moves comparable.

Directional bias: Bullish (flow + 60% beat rate).

Key Levels

1$30.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $30.84/$40.07
3Max pain pins: $30 (2026-06-26); $30 (2026-07-02); $32 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

$36 call: vol 27,363 vs OI 2,296 (ratio 11.9).

Aggressive bullish positioning, likely institutional.

Net premium $91.8M, put/call vol 0.23.

Call dominance reflects strong bullish sentiment.

Strategies

Short Strangle
Sell 2026-08-21 $30.00 put + sell $40.00 call
Credit: $6.17-$7.55
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $7.55
BE: 22.45 / 47.55
Trigger: Exit if spot breaks $30 or $40; buy back after crush.
Captures IV crush post-earnings; strikes far from spot reduce directional risk.
Outperforms: Sell $30 put and $40 call, profit from volatility drop. Unlimited downside risk.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Bull call spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $39.00/$48.00 call spread
Debit: $1.90-$2.33
Max loss: $2.33
Max gain: $6.67
BE: $41.33
Heavy $36 call flow and 60% beat rate support upside; capped risk suits high IV.
Outperforms: Bullish defined-risk spread on SMCI earnings beat.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot 18% above gamma flip at $30; pinning risk if bearish catalyst.
!High IV pre-earnings could lead to large post-event crush.
!43 days out; earnings uncertainty high amid AI sector volatility.

What to Watch

?Price action at $36 support/resistance.
?Open interest shifts in key strikes ($30-$40).
?Broader tech (QQQ) and AI news flow.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.