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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $32.45EOD only
Max Pain
$30.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.12
6.5% from close
Price Gap
-1.95
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
29
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.72
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings 40 days out. High IV, positive gamma pinning, but long-dated put buying suggests hedging.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Watch IV crush post-earnings and gamma pinning near $31-$33.
⚠️Unusual put buying on 2027 $33 strike signals long-term hedging
📈Short-term call activity at $33.50 for Jul 2 shows bullish momentum

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,529 (5.3% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (40 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (1d): ±$1.31 (4.2%)
  • 2026-07-02 (7d): ±$3.04 (9.6%)
  • 2026-07-10 (15d): ±$4.27 (13.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping to earnings; 1d 4.2% → 15d 13.5%

Crush estimate: Significant post-earnings crush, likely 50-60% IV drop

Skew: Put skew elevated; large put OI below spot

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves near implied but limited sample

Directional bias: Mixed; beat rate 60% but recently above MP

Key Levels

1$30.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $30.37/$33.00; 1w $28.65/$34.72
3Max pain pins: $31 (2026-06-26); $32 (2026-07-02); $33 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Large long-dated put buying: 2,002x 2027 $33 put (vol/OI 11.1)

Hedging or bearish bet on longer timeframe

Heavy call activity at $33.50 for Jul 2 expiry (4,475 contracts)

Short-term bullish positioning near resistance

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-10 $28.00/$26.00 put wing and $37.00/$40.50 call wing
Credit: $0.59-$0.73
Max loss: $2.77
Max gain: $0.73
BE: 27.27 / 37.73
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings to avoid IV crush.
High IV and range-bound pinning support premium harvest; expirations before Aug 4.
Outperforms: Sell $28/$26 put wing and $37/$40.5 call wing on high IV and range-bound expectation.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Put Calendar
Sell 2026-07-24 $27.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $27.00 put
Debit: $1.12-$1.37
Max loss: $1.37
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Adjust if stock breaks below $31 invalidation; roll forward if near-term expires.
Long-dated put buying observed; selling high IV near-term put funds cheaper protection.
Outperforms: Sell near-term $27 put, buy later $27 put to finance downside protection.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-24 $38.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $42.00 call
Debit: $0.63-$0.78
Max loss: $0.78
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Watch invalidation at $31; exit early if short leg ITM.
Upward sloping term structure to earnings; post-earnings crush benefits short leg.
Outperforms: Sell 7/24 $38 call, buy 8/21 $42 call to exploit term structure and IV crush.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Long strangle
Buy 2026-08-21 $28.00 put + buy $42.00 call
Debit: $4.10-$5.01
Max loss: $5.01
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 22.99 / 47.01
High IV and expected large post-earnings move, but IV crush risk mitigated by using after-earnings expiry (57 DTE).
Outperforms: Buy volatility ahead of earnings with wide strikes to capture large move.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!IV crush post-earnings severe for long premium
!Gamma pinning near $31-$33 may cap moves
!Large put OI below spot suggests downside support

What to Watch

?Earnings Aug 4, 40 days out
?Key levels $30-$34
?Flow divergence: long-dated puts vs short-term calls
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.