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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $30.46EOD only
Max Pain
$32.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.91
9.6% from close
Price Gap
+1.54
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
80
High premium
P/C OI
0.70
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

SMCI earnings 50 days out; high IV and strong call flow suggest bullish bias, but gamma pin at $32 and call wall at $34-$40 cap near-term moves.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 VIX 16
Most important: Call accumulation at $34/$33 (6/26) and massive $44.5C lottery (6/18) indicate speculative upside, but put floor at $20 and negative GEX below $30 pose risks.
📊Call OI wall $34-$40; put floor $20-$20.
📌Max pain $32 (6/18) and $34 (6/26) pinning.
📈Bullish call flow dominates 3:1 put/call vol ratio.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,526 (2.8% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (50 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (3d): ±$2.26 (7.3%)
  • 2026-06-26 (11d): ±$3.68 (11.9%)
  • 2026-07-02 (17d): ±$4.49 (14.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping: 7.3% (3d) to 14.6% (17d) expected moves.

Crush estimate: Uncertain due to 50d out; likely significant post-event crush but magnitude unclear.

Skew: OTM calls elevated IV (168% at $44.5C) vs puts; put skew lower.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available

Directional bias: 60% beat rate over 5 quarters; no clear directional trend.

Key Levels

1$30.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $28.59/$33.11
3Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-18); $34 (2026-06-26); $36 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call buying: 2,668 vols at $34C (6/26) vs 486 OI; also $31.5C and $33C with high vol/oi.

Aggressive bullish positioning ahead of earnings, targeting $34+.

Large put volume at $31 (6/18): 3,933 vols vs 2,007 OI.

Hedging or bearish speculation near key support.

$44.5C (6/18) 10k vols, OI 4,561, IV 168%.

Lottery-style speculative upside bet; low probability but high gamma.

Strategies

Iron Condor on SMCI
Sell 2026-06-26 $30.00/$28.00 put wing and $34.00/$35.00 call wing
Credit: $0.82-$1.01
Max loss: $0.99
Max gain: $1.01
BE: 28.99 / 35.01
Trigger: Close at 50% max profit or adjust wings if $32 breached.
Best fit for gamma pin at $32 and call wall at $34-$40; defined risk and theta decay.
Outperforms: Sell OTM put and call wings near key resistance/support, profiting from range-bound move.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle on SMCI
Sell 2026-07-02 $28.00 put + sell $35.00 call
Credit: $1.66-$2.02
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $2.02
BE: 25.98 / 37.02
Trigger: Monitor gamma risk below $28; roll untested side if needed.
High IV and upward term structure favor premium selling; resistance and support levels align.
Outperforms: Sell strangle at $28 put and $35 call to collect premium from time decay.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Call Calendar on SMCI
Sell 2026-06-26 $35.00 call / buy 2026-07-24 $35.00 call
Debit: $1.29-$1.57
Max loss: $1.57
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if short call ITM or if term structure flattens.
Exploits upward sloping term structure and potential earnings drift; limited risk.
Outperforms: Sell near-term call, buy later-dated call at same strike to capture volatility premium.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-06-18 $31.00 put + buy $31.00 call
Debit: $2.03-$2.49
Max loss: $2.49
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 28.51 / 33.49
High IV and call flow suggest potential for big move; straddle profits if stock moves >implied
Outperforms: Buy straddle to capture large earnings move
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Volatile stock with high IV; gamma risk near $32 max pain.
!Negative GEX below $30 could accelerate selloff if support breaks.
!Earnings 50d away may see IV crush unwinding long premium.

What to Watch

?Key levels: $32 (max pain 6/18), $34-$40 call wall.
?Gamma flip at $30; spot below MP increases pinning risk.
?Unusual flow continuation; $44.5C expiry (6/18) gamma effect.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.