thetaOwl
HomeOptionsSMCIReports

SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $31.68EOD only
Max Pain
$31.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.31
4.2% from close
Price Gap
-0.68
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
25
Low premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

SMCI earnings 39d out. IV elevated. 60% beat rate. Max pain $31-33. Negative net premium, mixed flow. Large call activity at $31.5 & $34 Jul2; deep OTM put hedge.

Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Spot near max pain; unusual $21 put volume signals hedging; calls at $31.5 & $34 pinning interest.
📈Bulk call buys at $31.5 & $34 Jul2 targeting upside.
⚠️Unusual $21 put volume suggests institutional hedging.
🎯Gamma pinning near $31 with max pain.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,535 (2.1% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (39 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-07-02 (6d): ±$2.45 (8.0%)
  • 2026-07-10 (14d): ±$3.80 (12.4%)
  • 2026-07-17 (21d): ±$4.73 (15.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated, upward sloping: 6d ±8%, 14d ±12.4%, 21d ±15.4%.

Crush estimate: Expected ~30-50% post-earnings crush given 60% beat rate and current skew.

Skew: Put skew elevated at OTM; call front-loading at $31 and $34.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Implied moves align with historical average; 60% beat rate slight bullish tilt.

Directional bias: Slightly bullish (60% beat).

Key Levels

1$30.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $28.18/$33.08
3Max pain pins: $31 (2026-06-26); $32 (2026-07-02); $33 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Large $21 put volume (9k+) for Jul10, 68x OI; deep OTM hedge.

Implies downside protection or directional hedge.

Concentrated call volume at $31.5 and $34 for Jul2; 12-14x OI.

Bullish bets targeting near-term max pain and resistance.

Strategies

Short Strangle
Sell 2026-08-21 $26.00 put + sell $42.00 call
Credit: $3.19-$3.89
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $3.89
BE: 22.11 / 45.89
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain; adjust if breaks $26 or $42.
Elevated IV and range-bound expectation from max pain, support at $26 put OI, and call wall at $34. Outranks long vol plays due to crush risk.
Outperforms: Collects premium betting stock stays within $26-$42 by earnings.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-08-21 $27.00 put + buy $40.00 call
Debit: $3.83-$4.68
Max loss: $4.68
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 22.32 / 44.68
Trigger: Exit if IV collapses or set stop-loss at 50% loss.
Cheaper than straddle with defined risk. Captures large post-earnings move while limiting cost. Suits mixed flow and upside bias.
Outperforms: Long volatility via OTM strikes to profit from directional breakout.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Long Straddle
Buy 2026-08-21 $33.00 put + buy $33.00 call
Debit: $8.17-$9.98
Max loss: $9.98
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 23.02 / 42.98
Trigger: Monitor IV; exit early if no significant move.
ATM but expensive; expected IV crush hurts. Less favorable given range-bound signals.
Outperforms: Buy both put and call at $33 to profit from large move.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Large $20-$30 put OI provides support floor.
!Negative net premium (-$12.3M) suggests bearish flow bias.
!Gamma pinning $31-$33 may cap moves.
!Elevated IV possible pre-earnings re-pricing.

What to Watch

?Price action vs $31 max pain and $32 pin.
?OI changes at $34 call wall.
?VIX trend for volatility regime shift.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.