thetaOwl
HomeOptionsSMCIReports

SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $33.32EOD only
Max Pain
$30.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.53
7.6% from close
Price Gap
-2.82
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
26
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.73
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 23, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

SMCI 41 days out, high IV, 60% beat rate, mixed flow with bearish premium but call buying near resistance.

Confidence:
4.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: IV elevated; flow mixed with bearish premium but large call volume at 33-34.5; pinning risk near max pain.
⚠️Put OI concentration at 7.6% below spot suggests floor near $30.
📈Call OI wall $35-$40 caps upside.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,513 (7.6% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (41 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (2d): ±$2.12 (6.5%)
  • 2026-07-02 (8d): ±$3.52 (10.9%)
  • 2026-07-10 (16d): ±$4.66 (14.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping: 2d IV ~155% (deep OTM put), 8d ~90%.

Crush estimate: Significant crush post-earnings, likely 50-70% from current levels.

Skew: Put skew elevated; deep OTM put activity suggests hedging.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available; implied moves are large.

Directional bias: Neutral to bearish; recent price near support and negative net premium.

Key Levels

1$30.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $30.34/$34.57; 1w $28.93/$35.98
3Max pain pins: $30 (2026-06-26); $32 (2026-07-02); $33 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call volume on Jul 2 33C (8734 vol vs 674 OI).

Bullish speculation or hedging near resistance.

High put volume on Jun 26 25P (12369 vol).

Bearish positioning or protective puts.

Strategies

Short Strangle
Sell 2026-08-21 $28.00 put + sell $35.00 call
Credit: $5.89-$7.21
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $7.21
BE: 20.79 / 42.21
Trigger: Monitor breakouts; roll or close if strikes approached.
Highest premium capture; best crush beneficiary.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call to profit from IV crush and range-bound move.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-08-21 $28.00/$27.00 put wing and $35.00/$37.00 call wing
Credit: $0.87-$1.06
Max loss: $0.94
Max gain: $1.06
BE: 26.94 / 36.06
Trigger: Manage near wings; close for partial profit early.
Defined-risk crush capture; limits tail risk.
Outperforms: Credit spread monetizes IV decay with capped loss.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $30.00/$28.00 put spread
Debit: $0.79-$0.96
Max loss: $0.96
Max gain: $1.04
BE: $29.04
Trigger: Exit above $33 invalidation; take profit before crush.
Exploits bearish flow and $30 support risk.
Outperforms: Buy put spread for downside with defined loss.
Underperforms: Trade above resistance weakens downside thesis.
Long strangle
Buy 2026-08-21 $26.00 put + buy $33.00 call
Debit: $5.98-$7.30
Max loss: $7.30
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 18.70 / 40.30
Implied move high but crush expected; however, OTM strangle reduces premium cost and benefits from any break of support/resistance.
Outperforms: Cheap long-vol structure to capture a large earnings move.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!High IV may overstate expected move.
!Pinning risk near max pain $30-$33.
!Negative net premium adds bearish tilt.

What to Watch

?Proximity to $30 support.
?IV collapse if no catalyst.
?Earnings preview in coming weeks.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.