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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $30.56EOD only

Max Pain

$31.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.02

6.6% from close

Price Gap

+0.44

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.83

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

SMCI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with dealer gamma pinning and positive flow, but high vol and spot below MP favor range-bound upside.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow +1 pinning +0.5 near MP +0.5 VIX=9.

Supports: Dealer gamma pin, bull flow, strong dealer positioning.
Conflicts: High IV, risk of sharp moves.

📈Max pain $31 May22 pinning favors drift up.

⚡High vol: IV rich, event risk premium.

🛡️Dealer GEX +$40M, DEX +52M support.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High: IV elevated vs VIX event risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: GEX +$40M near $31 max pain.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish: call buying dominates, bearish flow low.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot 1.4% below $31 MP, attracted upward.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain expiry May22 drives near-term pinning, no structural catalyst.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$28.54$32.58

Pin at $31, range $28.54-$32.58.

Next 1 week

$27.52$33.60

Resistance $32, support $27.52.

Next 2 weeks

$26.71$34.40

Support $26.71, res $33.5, expiry fades.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $31 (2026-05-22); $30 (2026-05-29); $30 (2026-06-05)

EM guardrails: 2d $28.54/$32.58; 1w $27.52/$33.60

Support: $26.71

Resistance: $31.00 · $32.00 · $33.50

Structural: Pins: $31(5/22), $30(5/29,6/5). EM: 2d $28.54/$32.58, 1w $27.52/$33.60. Sup $26.71, Res $31/$32/$33.5. No gamma flip.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+40.1M

DEX: +52.6M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +$40.1M, DEX +52.6M shares, pinning to $31 max pain.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 18, event risk premiums high.

Term structure: Front-end elevated; May22 IV highest, decay later.

Skew: Put skew elevated, call skew steep; bullish call flow favors dips.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium +$1.03M with put/call volume ratio 0.36, indicating bullish call buying.

Directional prints: 81.1 call 32.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI ratio 8.0, aggressive buying of OTM calls; likely new long positions. 80.1 call 31 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI ratio 2.4, significant call accumulation; bought for upside exposure.

Unusual: 85.2 call 42 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI ratio 2.6, low volume but speculative long call on extended move. 80.3 call 30 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI ratio 1.9, above average volume; likely bought ATM/ITM for directional bias. 79.9 call 38 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI ratio 1.9, new OTM weekly call; bought for upside speculation.

Risks & Catalysts

!High IV reversals if pin breaks.

!Spot below $28.54 triggers gamma flip.

!Event risk unpredictable.

!Overcrowded bullish positioning.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Call diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-17 $36.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $32.00 call Why now: Bullish flow, high IV, earnings event creates vol term structure edge.	Short call caps upside if stock rallies before earnings; long call loses if stock drops.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $30.00/$32.00 call spread Why now: Bull call spread profits from moderate upside while limiting risk; OTM call flow suggests conviction on upside.	Upside capped; IV crush or price decline can cause loss. Substitutions: short_call: resolved contract 2026-07-17 $32.50 missing; used 2026-07-17 $32.00.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $28.00/$26.00 put spread Why now: Put credit spread profits from neutral-to-bullish moves and time decay; high IV boosts premium.	Upside limited; price drop below short strike causes max loss.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-17 $32.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $28.00 put Why now: Risk reversal allows upside participation with lower cost; call buying flow supports long call.	Unlimited upside risk from short put if price falls; requires margin. Substitutions: long_call: resolved contract 2026-07-17 $32.50 missing; used 2026-07-17 $32.00.

Top Plays

Call Diagonal

Sell 2026-07-17 $36.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $32.00 call

Sell near-term call, buy later call to profit from IV skew and time decay.

Why this play: Captures vol term structure and earnings event; highest edge given bullish flow and high IV.

Debit: $2.24-$2.73

Max loss: $2.73

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Exit near earnings or if spot breaks below 26.71; adjust if IV collapses.

Traders seeking leveraged upside with defined risk and volatility edge.

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $30.00/$32.00 call spread

Buy 30/32 call spread to profit from moderate rally in SMCI.

Why this play: Simple bullish play with limited risk; aligns with OTM call buying flow and moderate upside target.

Debit: $0.78-$0.95

Max loss: $0.95

BE: $30.95

Mgmt: Hold to expiration or close if spot drops below 30.

Traders expecting controlled upside with defined max loss and gain.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $28.00/$26.00 put spread

Sell 28/26 put spread to collect premium, betting spot stays above 28.

Why this play: Neutral-bullish play that profits from time decay and high IV; downside risk limited.

Credit: $0.66-$0.81

Max loss: $1.19

BE: $27.19

Mgmt: Close if spot approaches 28; roll down if needed.

Traders comfortable with moderate downside risk but bullish bias.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot holds above $28.54 (2d EM) and approaches $30 → THEN enter bull call spread (buy 2026-07-17 $30/$32 call spread) for defined risk upside.

IFIF spot pulls back to $28.54-$29 with bullish flow → THEN enter call diagonal (sell 2026-07-17 $36 call, buy 2026-08-21 $32 call) for vol term structure edge.

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot breaks below $26.71 support → THEN exit all bullish positions to limit losses.

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with range-bound upside. Key support $26.71, resistance $31/$32/$33.5. Enter on pullbacks to $28.54-$29 using bull call spread or call diagonal. Exit on break below $26.71. Earnings on 2026-08-04, manage positions ahead.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.