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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $30.56EOD only

Max Pain

$31.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.02

6.6% from close

Price Gap

+0.44

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.83

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

SMCI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 19, 2026.

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Outlook

SMCI pinned near $31 max pain with strong dealer gamma hedging. Mixed flow and high vol limit directional conviction, but positive GEX and spot proximity to MP suggest near-term stability with slight upward drift toward $33.53 resistance within 1 week. Over 2 weeks, broader range of $27.67-$34.41 with bullish lean supported by dealer positioning.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5 adjusted: -1 GEX/flow contradict, +1 GEX positive pinning, +1 spot at MP (0.1% distance), +0.5 VIX 18. Score 6.5 moderate bullish.

Supports: Strong dealer long gamma ($56.3M), spot at max pain, positive DEX (+60.9M shares), EM guardrails define range.
Conflicts: Mixed options flow with slight negative premium, high vol regime may cause whipsaws, no strong directional catalyst.

📌Spot pinned at $31 max pain; gamma flip risk low

🟢Dealers net long gamma $56.3M, supports range

⚠️Mixed flow and high vol reduce conviction

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated relative to typical range; VIX 18.43 supports high vol environment.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive gamma pinning with spot near max pain; GEX +$56.3M, dealers hedging keeps spot range-bound near $31.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow with slight negative premium context; no strong directional conviction from options flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at MP ($31) with 0.1% distance, strong pinning effect; support and resistance defined by EM guardrails.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Spot at max pain with strong gamma pinning across multiple expiries; structural dealer hedging supports range-bound multi-week outlook.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$28.56$33.53

Range-bound with pinning at $31; break requires catalyst.

Next 2 weeks

$27.67$34.41

Higher range supported by dealer positioning; upward drift possible.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $31 (2026-05-15); $30 (2026-05-22); $30 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 1w $28.56/$33.53

Support: $31.00 · $27.67

Resistance: $32.00 · $34.41

Structural: Support: $31 (max pain), $27.67; Resistance: $32, $34.41; EM guardrails: $28.56-$33.53 (1w); No gamma flip; no put OI concentration within 30% below spot.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+56.3M

DEX: +60.9M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealers net long gamma ($56.3M) with positive DEX (+60.9M shares). No gamma flip near spot; strong pinning support.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX (18.43) reflecting high earnings/event expectations; vol environment supports option premiums.

Term structure: Term structure upward sloping into May expiries, with kinks at weekly cycles.

Skew: Put skew elevated relative to call; possible put sell opportunities at high IV levels for near-term expiries.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net negative $1.73M premium, put/call vol ratio 0.48 (call-heavy) but OI ratio 0.79, mixed flow.

Directional prints: 106.3 put 20 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 14.9, deep OTM put. Likely bought as bearish hedge or speculative; sold by counterparty. 69.8 call 32 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 10.6, OTM call. Bullish bet on upside; sold by counterparty expecting limited move.

Unusual: 500 put 70 ITM 2026-05-15 — Extreme IV (capped at 500%), vol/OI 4.4, deep ITM put. Likely stale or exercised, unusual due to IV. 87.8 call 24 ITM 2026-12-18 — Vol/OI 6.7, long-dated OTM call. Bullish long-term bet; sold for premium.

Risks & Catalysts

!Sustained break below $28.56 support triggers downside acceleration.

!Positive gamma flips to negative on large put buying.

!VIX spike above 25 could expand range.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-05-29 $29.00/$27.50 put spread Why now: Dealer gamma support near $30, max pain at $31, slight upward drift expected. Selling put spread profits if stock stays above short strike.	Sharp downside break below $28 support could cause max loss. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (56%).
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-05 $33.50/$36.50 call spread Why now: Two-week bullish lean, dealer gamma positive, flow call-heavy. Bull call spread profits if stock rallies modestly.	If stock fails to rally, premium lost. Max loss limited to debit paid. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (78%).
Call diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-05-29 $33.50 call / buy 2026-06-26 $34.50 call Why now: High near-term vol (~70%) vs back-month vol (~73%) slight contango. Sell near-term call, buy longer-dated to capture theta decay and vol normalization.	If stock moves dramatically, calendar loses. Directional risk if tail moves. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (74%).

Top Plays

Call Diagonal

Sell 2026-05-29 $33.50 call / buy 2026-06-26 $34.50 call

Sell front-month call, buy back-month call to profit from time decay and vol normalization while maintaining bullish drift.

Why this play: Exploits high near-term vol and contango for theta decay with upside exposure.

Debit: $0.99-$1.21

Max loss: $1.21

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Roll forward if stock breaks above short strike; close on vol spike. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (74%).

Traders expecting range-bound movement with vol contraction.

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-05 $33.50/$36.50 call spread

Buy $33.50 call, sell $36.50 call for defined risk upside if stock rallies modestly.

Why this play: Aligns with bullish lean over two weeks and dealer gamma support.

Debit: $0.52-$0.63

Max loss: $0.63

BE: $34.13

Mgmt: Take profit near $34.50; stop loss at $31 invalidation. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (78%).

Moderately bullish traders targeting resistance.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-05-29 $29.00/$27.50 put spread

Sell $29 put, buy $27.50 put to collect premium while expecting stock to stay above short strike.

Why this play: Benefiting from near-term stability and dealer support near max pain.

Credit: $0.37-$0.45

Max loss: $1.05

BE: $28.55

Mgmt: Close if stock breaks below $28.56 support. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (56%).

Neutral to slightly bullish traders seeking income.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF SMCI holds above $31.00 support for two consecutive days AND VIX below 25 → THEN enter put credit spread: sell 2026-05-29 $29 put, buy $27.50 put for $0.37-$0.45 credit.

IFIF SMCI breaks above $32.00 resistance with increasing call volume → THEN enter bull call spread: buy 2026-06-05 $33.50 call, sell $36.50 call for $0.52-$0.63 debit.

IFIF SMCI trades between $31.00 and $33.53 with front-month vol > 68% and back-month vol < 74% → THEN enter call diagonal: sell 2026-05-29 $33.50 call, buy 2026-06-26 $34.50 call for $0.99-$1.21 debit.

Exit Triggers

EXITIF SMCI drops below $31.00 → THEN close all bullish positions (put credit spread, bull call spread, call diagonal).

EXITIF SMCI rallies above $34.41 resistance → THEN take profit on call diagonal and bull call spread; let put credit spread expire worthless.

Tactical Summary

SMCI pinned near $31 max pain; dealer gamma supports stability with drift to $33.53 resistance in 2 weeks. Range $28.56-$33.53. Top plays: put credit spread for income, bull call spread for upside, call diagonal for vol decay. Risk: break below $31 invalidates bullish bias.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.