Home Options SMCIReports

SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $32.00EOD only

Max Pain

$31.00

Next expiry May 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.69

5.3% from close

Price Gap

-1.00

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.82

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 13, 2026 close

SMCI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish thesis from strong dealer long gamma and bullish flow in high vol pinning regime. Spot above max pain but support near $31 and positive GEX buffer. Confidence high at 8/10.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 positive gamma pinning; -1 spot 6.5% above MP; +1 VIX support

Supports: Dealer long gamma $68.4M, bullish flow, high vol regime
Conflicts: Spot 6.5% above max pain, potential pinning; high vol risk

🟢Dealer GEX +$68.4M supports price stability near $31-$35

📈Bullish flow and gamma alignment reinforce upside bias

⚠️Spot 6.5% above max pain $31 may induce reversion

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Vol high; VIX 17.26 confirms elevated volatility. IV percentile ~85% vs 1-year range.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive gamma $68.4M, pinning; no gamma flip risk near term.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net flow supports upward bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above max pain $31 by ~6.5%; positive gamma limits downside.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pins for weekly expiries (May 15) and strong gamma suggest event-driven dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$31.82$34.23

Key pin $31; resistance $34.23

Next 1 week

$29.93$36.13

Support $29.93; resistance $36.13

Next 2 weeks

$28.87$37.18

Support $28.87; resistance $37.18; max pain $30

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $31 (2026-05-15); $30 (2026-05-22); $30 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $31.82/$34.23; 1w $29.93/$36.13

Support: $31.00 · $28.87

Resistance: $35.00 · $36.00 · $37.18

Structural: Max pain pins: $31 (May 15), $30 (May 22/29). EM guardrails: 2d $31.82/$34.23, 1w $29.93/$36.13. Support $31, $28.87; Resistance $35, $36, $37.18.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+68.4M

DEX: +64.3M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealer long gamma +$68.4M; no gamma flip. Positive hedging supports near-term stability.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 55% vs VIX 17.26 (~34% implied vol); IV rank ~85% over past 1yr. Rich to VIX, consistent with high vol regime.

Term structure: Front-month (May15) IV ~60%, back-month (Jun) ~45%, contango skew typical; near-term events steepen curve.

Skew: Put skew elevated relative to calls; May15 put IV 65% vs call IV 55%. Selling puts attractive vs realized vol if support holds.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Strong net call premium of $4.9M with P/C volume ratio 0.18, indicating aggressive bullish flow.

Directional prints: 75.5 call 33 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 15.1, aggressive call buying; likely bought for upside momentum. 75.5 call 34 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 6.1, strong call open interest addition; bought expecting rally. 77.1 call 35 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 4.6, steady call demand; bought targeting higher levels.

Unusual: 500 put 70 ITM 2026-05-15 — Deep ITM put with extreme IV 500% and vol/OI 4.4; likely hedging short stock or synthetic position. 75.5 call 33 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 15.1 is exceptionally high; aggressive new bullish position. 75.5 call 34 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 6.1 also notable; large call buying above prior OI.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot rejection from resistance $35-$36

!Reversion to max pain $31 if gamma fades

!High vol regime amplifies selloffs

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $40.00/$46.00 call spread Why now: Defined risk upside exposure with support at $31	Resistance at $35-36 may cap near-term gains
Put credit spread	Strong	Sell 2026-07-17 $28.00/$23.00 put spread Why now: Selling put spread below $31 collects credit with defined risk	Breakdown below $30 invalidates thesis
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $41.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $27.00 put Why now: Leverage bullish flow; short put at support funds upside call	Unlimited risk if spot breaks support; high margin

Top Plays

Bull call spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $40.00/$46.00 call spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $40/$46 call spread for bullish momentum with capped loss

Why this play: Defined risk upside exposure with support near $31

Debit: $0.81-$0.98

Max loss: $0.98

BE: $40.98

Mgmt: Exit if spot closes below $31

Traders seeking defined risk upside

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $28.00/$23.00 put spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $28/$23 put spread to profit from bullish bias

Why this play: Collects credit below support with defined risk

Credit: $1.06-$1.29

Max loss: $3.71

BE: $26.71

Mgmt: Buy back if spot drops below $28

Income-focused traders

Bullish risk reversal

Buy 2026-07-17 $41.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $27.00 put

Buy $41 call, sell $27 put; short put funds upside call

Why this play: Leverages bullish flow and dealer gamma

Debit: $0.23-$0.28

Max loss: $27.00

BE: $27.00

Mgmt: Monitor spot below $31; manage put assignment risk

Aggressive traders comfortable with unlimited upside and put assignment

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF SMCI holds above $31 support → Buy 2026-07-17 $40/$46 call spread (bcs_001)

IFIF SMCI stays above $31 and bullish flow continues → Sell 2026-07-17 $28/$23 put spread (pcs_002)

IFIF SMCI holds above $31 with bullish momentum → Execute bullish risk reversal: buy $41 call, sell $27 put (rr_003)

Exit Triggers

EXITIF SMCI closes below $31 → Exit all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish thesis (8/10) with support at $31, resistance $35-$36. Dealer gamma and flow favor upside. Top play: bull call spread (bcs_001). Invalidation level $31; exit below it.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.