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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $32.79EOD only

Max Pain

$30.50

Next expiry May 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.17

6.6% from close

Price Gap

-2.29

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.83

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Neutral tilt

Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 12, 2026 close

SMCI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

SMCI trades above max pain $31 with strong dealer gamma (+$54.4M). High vol regime but pinning keeps near-term range $30.32-$33.69. Event-specific thesis ahead of May15 expiry; bullish bias but upside capped at $33.69. Accept base confidence 5.5.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive pinning; -0.5 spot 3.2% from MP; +1 VIX 18

Supports: Positive gamma, VIX moderate, spot above MP
Conflicts: Mixed flow, high vol, resistance near

🟢Gamma Pinning: $31 max pain anchors spot

⚠️High Vol: IV elevated signals event risk

🔴Mixed Flow: Net premium unclear

📈Bullish Bias: Spot above MP, dealer long gamma

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated vs typical range; high vol regime

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$54.4M, pinning near $31 max pain

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium; put/call ratio not clear

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $32.44 above $31 max pain; 3.2% above MP

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Nearest expiration (2026-05-15) in 2 days; gamma pinning dominates

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$30.32$33.69

Support $30.32, resistance $33.69

Next 1 week

$28.71$35.28

Max pain $30, support $28.71

Next 2 weeks

$27.82$36.17

Max pain $28, resistance $36.17

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $31 (2026-05-15); $30 (2026-05-22); $28 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $30.32/$33.69; 1w $28.71/$35.28

Support: $31.00 · $27.82

Resistance: $32.00 · $35.00 · $36.17

Structural: Max pain pins: $31 (May15), $30 (May22), $28 (May29). EM guardrails: 2d $30.32/$33.69, 1w $28.71/$35.28. Support: $31, $27.82. Resistance: $32, $35, $36.17. Gamma flip: N/A.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+54.4M

DEX: +62.3M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +$54.4M, DEX +62.3M shares; strong dealer long gamma; no flip risk.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV rich vs VIX 17.87; elevated implied vol suggests high event risk

Term structure: Front-end elevated; term structure likely in contango with expiry kinks around May15

Skew: Skew put-side elevated; opportunity in selling put spreads at support levels

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$5.1M (put-heavy) but call volume ratio 0.38, driven by large OTM call volume and ITM put premium.

Directional prints: 78.5 call 33.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 22.3x suggests new bullish call buying. Preferred read: bought. 80.7 call 36 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 8.8x indicates bullish call buying. Preferred read: bought.

Unusual: 467.6 put 70 ITM 2026-05-15 — Deep ITM put with extremely high IV (467.6%) and short expiry; likely bought for bearish hedge or exercise play. 75.3 put 31 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 7.7x suggests opening put buying for bearish protection or bearish bet. 76.1 put 28.5 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 6.8x indicates new put activity; likely bearish positioning.

Risks & Catalysts

!Breakdown below $30.32 trigger stop losses

!Vol spike if spot breaks resistance $33.69

!Gamma flip if put OI surges below $30

!Event-driven gap post-options expiry

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-29 $31.00/$33.50 call spread Why now: Call volume and gamma support bullish move; resistance cap favors spread over naked call.	Max loss is net debit if spot stays below $30; limited upside above $33.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $30.00/$28.00 put spread Why now: Support at $30.32 and strong dealer gamma offer downside protection; defined risk reduces tail.	Max loss if spot falls below $28; premium received offsets some risk.
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $30.00/$28.00 put wing and $33.00/$35.00 call wing Why now: High IV and tight range make iron condor attractive; wings at support/resistance delimit risk.	Max loss if spot breaches wings; wide range reduces probability but caps premium.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-05-29 $31.00/$33.50 call spread

Buy $31/$33.50 call spread for defined risk upside exposure.

Why this play: Aligns with bullish bias and capped upside at $33.69, supported by call volume and gamma.

Debit: $1.04-$1.28

Max loss: $1.28

BE: $32.28

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $31; take profit near $33.50.

Traders expecting gradual rise but limited upside.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-05-29 $30.00/$28.00 put spread

Sell $30/$28 put spread to collect premium with downside protection.

Why this play: Benefits from support at $30.32 and dealer gamma, with defined risk below $28.

Credit: $0.54-$0.66

Max loss: $1.34

BE: $29.34

Mgmt: Close if spot drops toward $30; roll down if breached.

Defensive traders seeking income with bullish bias.

Iron Condor

Sell 2026-05-29 $30.00/$28.00 put wing and $33.00/$35.00 call wing

Sell $30/$28 put and $33/$35 call wings for neutral theta strategy.

Why this play: Captures high IV while range-bound between $30 and $33.69; wings delimit risk.

Credit: $1.14-$1.39

Max loss: $0.61

BE: 28.61 / 34.39

Mgmt: Adjust if spot approaches wings; exit early on vol crush.

Neutral traders expecting pinning near $31.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot holds above $31 support → THEN buy $31/$33.50 call spread

IFIF spot pulls back to $30.32 but holds above $30 → THEN sell $30/$28 put spread

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot breaks below $31 → THEN exit bull call spread

Tactical Summary

SMCI bullish bias with pinning near $31, resistance $33.69. Top play: bull call spread for upside. Alternative: put credit spread on pullback. Manage stop if below $31. Accept confidence 5.5.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.