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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $29.22EOD only
Max Pain
$31.50
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.66
5.7% from close
Price Gap
+2.28
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
74
High premium
P/C OI
0.73
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 16, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Heavy call flow dominates; 48d to earnings. High IV, large expected moves. Net premium negative but volume skew bullish.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 10.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Massive call volume at $30.5 and $33 strikes for 6/26 suggests aggressive bullish positioning near resistance.
📊Massive call volume 26.3x OI at $30.5; aggressive bullish.
⚠️48d to earnings; IV crush risk if holding.
🔻Net premium -$6M despite bullish volume; hedging?

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$20.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 28,156 (28.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (48 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (1d): ±$1.07 (3.9%)
  • 2026-06-26 (9d): ±$2.73 (9.8%)
  • 2026-07-02 (15d): ±$3.46 (12.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated; 1d IV ~68%, 9d ~76%, 15d ~76%.

Crush estimate: Expected IV crush of ~20-30% post-earnings.

Skew: Put skew elevated; $20 put IV 102% indicates downside fear.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Beat rate 60%; moves often exceed implied.

Directional bias: Slight bullish bias given 60% beat rate and recent call flow.

Key Levels

1$20.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $26.71/$28.85; 1w $25.05/$30.51
3Max pain pins: $31 (2026-06-18); $31 (2026-06-26); $32 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Heavy call buying at $30.5 and $33 for 6/26: 19,767 and 19,874 vol vs OI 751 and 1018, vol/OI 26.3 and 19.5.

Aggressive bullish bets expecting move above $30.5-$33 by 6/26; aligns with resistance break attempt.

Strategies

Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $27.00 put + sell $32.00 call
Credit: $2.85-$3.48
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $3.48
BE: 23.52 / 35.48
Trigger: Close if IV drops 30% or spot moves beyond $27/$35.
Exploits high IV and 60% beat rate; range-bound likely.
Outperforms: Sell 2026-07-17 $27 put and $32 call.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $27.00/$26.00 put wing and $30.00/$32.00 call wing
Credit: $0.89-$1.09
Max loss: $0.91
Max gain: $1.09
BE: 25.91 / 31.09
Trigger: Take profit at 50% max gain; adjust if spot nears strikes.
Defined risk range-bound play suited for high IV.
Outperforms: Sell $27/$26 put spread and $30/$32 call spread.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Long call
Buy 2026-08-21 $31.00 call
Debit: $2.78-$3.40
Max loss: $3.40
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $34.40
60% beat rate and heavy call flow suggest upside potential despite high IV.
Outperforms: Bullish bet on earnings with history of exceeding moves.
Underperforms: Failure at support and IV crush weaken long-call thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot below max pain $31; gamma flip at $20.
!Call OI wall $32-$40 may cap upside.
!Net premium -$6M suggests hedging or spreads.

What to Watch

?Spot holds above $28?
?$30.5 call OI growth.
?VIX and market direction.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.