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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $35.46EOD only
Max Pain
$30.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.36
9.5% from close
Price Gap
-4.96
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
32
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

SMCI earnings setup 42 days out with elevated IV and bullish flow. Heavy put buying at near-term strikes suggests hedging. Spot above MP but below call wall. Historical beat rate 60%.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 9.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: High forward IV with pinning gamma; unusual put activity warns of downside risk despite bullish flow.
🛡️Heavy put buying at $32.5-$33 suggests downside hedging.
📈Net call premium positive; bullish flow dominant.
⚠️High IV skew near-term; crush risk post-earnings.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,409 (10.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (42 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (3d): ±$2.53 (7.6%)
  • 2026-07-02 (9d): ±$3.74 (11.2%)
  • 2026-07-10 (17d): ±$4.93 (14.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep contango: 3d IV ~90% → 17d ~84% implied by expected moves.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings crush estimated 20-30% from current elevated levels.

Skew: Put skew elevated at near-term strikes; heavy put OI at $30-$33.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not specified; beat rate 60% over 5 quarters.

Directional bias: Slight bullish bias; 3 beats, 2 misses.

Key Levels

1$30.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $30.79/$35.85; 1w $29.58/$37.06
3Max pain pins: $30 (2026-06-26); $32 (2026-07-02); $33 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put volume at $32.50 and $33 for June 26 and July 2, vol/OI >3.

Hedging or bearish positioning near expiry.

Net premium $6.1M positive; put/call volume ratio 0.52.

Overall bullish flow, but put activity concentrated in short-dated strikes.

Strategies

Put Calendar
Sell 2026-07-24 $29.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $30.00 put
Debit: $1.56-$1.90
Max loss: $1.90
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if spot below $30.50; roll if IV spikes.
Steep contango and put hedging, limited downside risk.
Outperforms: Sell near-term put, buy longer put to profit from term structure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-24 $40.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $36.00 call
Debit: $2.42-$2.95
Max loss: $2.95
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if spot closes below $30.50.
Uses contango and bullish bias, defined risk.
Outperforms: Sell short OTM call, buy longer ATM call for time decay + upside.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-08-21 $28.00 put + sell $46.00 call
Credit: $3.79-$4.64
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $4.64
BE: 23.36 / 50.64
Trigger: Use stop-loss or hedge tail risk.
Profits from expected IV crush, but unlimited tail risk.
Outperforms: Sell OTM put and call to capture premium decay.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!High IV may compress quickly as earnings approach.
!Put wall at $30 could break if spot declines.
!Beat rate only 60% implies uncertainty.

What to Watch

?Spot reaction to $33 resistance level.
?Gamma flip at $30; increased pinning pressure.
?Earnings date confirmations and guidance.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.