thetaOwl
HomeOptionsSMCIReports

SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $30.46EOD only
Max Pain
$32.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.91
9.6% from close
Price Gap
+1.54
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
80
High premium
P/C OI
0.70
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Bullish flow, high IV; near-term gamma pin at $32; call buying suggests upside bias.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.3% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Most important: Heavy weekly call buying at $30.50/$31 strikes.
📈Call flow bullish for near-term rebound.
⚠️Put floor at $30 provides support.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 18,180 (1.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (53 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (6d): ±$2.91 (9.6%)
  • 2026-06-26 (14d): ±$4.20 (13.8%)
  • 2026-07-02 (20d): ±$5.03 (16.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Slight backwardation; high near-term IV (75% ann.).

Crush estimate: Post-earnings crush ~40-50% but 53 days away.

Skew: Put-skewed at low strikes; call skew flat.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Avg move ~8% vs 6.5% implied; beat rate 60%.

Directional bias: No persistent directional bias.

Key Levels

1$30.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $27.55/$33.37
3Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-12); $32 (2026-06-18); $34 (2026-06-26)

Flow Highlights

Large call buying at $30.50/$31 for 6/12 expiry (vol/OI >5).

Bullish bet on short-term rebound.

Net premium +$8.2M; put/call vol ratio 0.34.

Strong call bias; flow aggressively bullish.

Strategies

Long Strangle
Buy 2026-08-21 $27.00 put + buy $42.00 call
Debit: $4.58-$5.59
Max loss: $5.59
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 21.41 / 47.59
Trigger: Exit before earnings or on 50% gain; stop loss at 50% of premium.
Best value to capture high IV and expected move; lower cost than straddle.
Outperforms: Buys OTM put and call to profit from large move without direction bias.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Long Straddle
Buy 2026-08-21 $33.00 put + buy $33.00 call
Debit: $9.47-$11.58
Max loss: $11.58
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 21.42 / 44.58
Trigger: Set stop loss at 50% premium; consider early exit if IV spikes.
Direct play on high IV and expected move; symmetric exposure.
Outperforms: At-the-money straddle profits from any large move, but costly.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $33.00/$42.00 call spread
Debit: $1.93-$2.35
Max loss: $2.35
Max gain: $6.65
BE: $35.35
Trigger: Sell spread if stock breaks above $35; stop loss at $31.
Leverages bullish flow but capped upside and 53d out; lower rank vs vol plays.
Outperforms: Vertical call spread with defined risk, benefits from upside move.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma pin at $32 caps upside.
!Put floor at $30; break below accelerates selling.
!High IV amplifies move magnitude.

What to Watch

?Weekly expiration pin at $30/$31.
?Break above $31.5 resistance.
?AI sector news or analyst upgrades.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.