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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $30.46EOD only
Max Pain
$32.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.91
9.6% from close
Price Gap
+1.54
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
80
High premium
P/C OI
0.70
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 11, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for June 12, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Bullish flow, pinning gamma support SMCI near $33. Put/call 0.37 confirms call dominance. 54d to earnings, focus weekly pinning.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Call OI wall $35-$40 vs put floor $20-$30; gamma flip at $30.
📈Call-heavy flow, 2.7:1 OI ratio bullish.
⚖️Max pain $33 magnet, pinning likely.
⚠️Gamma flip $30 triggers put wall drop.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 18,122 (6.2% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (54 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-12 (1d): ±$1.70 (5.3%)
  • 2026-06-18 (7d): ±$3.54 (11.1%)
  • 2026-06-26 (15d): ±$4.96 (15.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term IV 85-95% from high vol; back-month lower.

Crush estimate: No earnings crush; IV decay after weekly.

Skew: Put skew elevated at $27 put IV 117% reflecting tail hedge.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A; beat rate 60% suggests upside.

Directional bias: Bullish from flow/regime.

Key Levels

1$30.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $30.27/$33.67; 1w $28.43/$35.51
3Max pain pins: $33 (2026-06-12); $33 (2026-06-18); $35 (2026-06-26)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call vol at $30.5 (29.9x OI) and $29.5 (21.2x) for 6/12.

Aggressive call buying near support.

Net premium +$34.4M, put/call vol 0.37.

Dominant bullish institutional flow.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $30.00/$29.50 put wing and $33.00/$33.50 call wing
Credit: $0.32-$0.40
Max loss: $0.10
Max gain: $0.40
BE: 29.60 / 33.40
Trigger: Close at 50% profit or near gamma flip.
Pinning between support $30 and resistance $33; high IV yields credit.
Outperforms: Sells wings at OI walls; captures theta decay.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-06-18 $33.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $33.00 call
Debit: $1.74-$2.13
Max loss: $2.13
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll if spot breaks $30 support.
Front-month IV > back-month; bullish flow supports.
Outperforms: Sells front call, buys back call; profits from IV decline and time decay.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-08-21 $30.00 put + buy $30.00 call
Debit: $9.54-$11.66
Max loss: $11.66
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 18.34 / 41.66
Bullish flow and high IV; straddle captures large move.
Outperforms: Buy volatility before earnings with symmetric long gamma.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma flip at $30 could accelerate selloff.
!Resistance $33 max pain and $35 call wall.
!High vol VIX 19.4 amplifies.

What to Watch

?Spot at $30.27 (2d lower EM) and $33.67.
?OI at $35 call wall, $30 put floor.
?Volume in 6/12 0DTE $29-$31.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.