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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $40.64EOD only
Max Pain
$41.50
Next expiry Jun 12, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.03
7.5% from close
Price Gap
+0.86
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
49
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.80
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 9, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 10, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Mixed setup with heavy put and call activity, high IV, and spot below max pain.

Confidence:
4 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 27.7% from MP
Most important: Large put buying at $30-$32 vs call buying at $32.5-$33.5 indicates hedging for rangebound.
⚠️Max pain $40 vs spot $29 suggests stale or misaligned data.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$24.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,083 (18.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (55 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-12 (2d): ±$2.54 (8.7%)
  • 2026-06-18 (8d): ±$4.31 (14.7%)
  • 2026-06-26 (16d): ±$5.27 (18.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping; short-dated elevated due to earnings uncertainty.

Crush estimate: 30-50% decline on week-of contracts post-earnings.

Skew: Put skew elevated at $30-$32 strikes.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves within implied range 60% of time.

Directional bias: Neutral; no consistent direction post-earnings.

Key Levels

1$24.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $26.74/$31.81; 1w $24.96/$33.58
3Max pain pins: $40 (2026-06-12); $34 (2026-06-18); $36 (2026-06-26)

Flow Highlights

Heavy call buying at $32.5 and $33.5 Aug4 expiries.

Speculative upside bets near resistance.

Heavy put buying at $30, $31, $32, $34 Aug4 expiries.

Hedging or bearish protection.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $27.00/$25.00 put wing and $32.50/$35.50 call wing
Credit: $1.00-$1.23
Max loss: $1.77
Max gain: $1.23
BE: 25.77 / 33.73
Trigger: Exit at 50% max gain or near expiration.
Neutral bias, high IV, defined risk.
Outperforms: Sell put and call wings to collect premium with capped loss.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-06-18 $27.00 put + sell $32.50 call
Credit: $1.94-$2.37
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $2.37
BE: 24.63 / 34.87
Trigger: Roll untested side or close at 50% profit.
High IV and neutral outlook; higher credit than IC.
Outperforms: Sell OTM put and call for premium; unlimited loss risk.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Put diagonal
Sell 2026-06-18 $27.00 put / buy 2026-07-10 $25.00 put
Debit: $0.11-$0.14
Max loss: $0.14
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Short-dated IV elevated vs longer-term; calendar captures premium decay.
Outperforms: Exploit term structure: sell rich near-term put, buy back-month put.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot ~$29 far below max pain $40 (2d) – potential data anomaly.
!High VIX (22.2) amplifies IV risk.
!Net premium -$54.7M signals put premium dominance.

What to Watch

?Price reaction around $30 and $32 strikes.
?Open interest changes in $32.5 calls (45.8x vol/OI).
?IV crush post-earnings on Aug4.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 10, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.