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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $46.90EOD only
Max Pain
$40.50
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.73
3.7% from close
Price Gap
-6.40
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
50
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 4, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 4, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 5, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Bullish flow, gamma pinning at $40, high confidence setup ahead of Aug earnings. Massive call buying supports upside bias despite macro weakness.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 22
Most important: Massive $47 call volume (19.5k vs 1.7k OI) signals strong directional bullish bet for June12 expiration.
🟢$47C sweep (19.5k vol) strong bullish signal; aligns with net premium inflow +$26M.
🟡Heavy put flow at $44 and $24 suggests downside hedging, not outright bearish.
⚪VIX at 21.5 amplifies risk; but flow and GEX provide structural support.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,849 (28.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (60 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-12 (7d): ±$3.89 (9.4%)
  • 2026-06-18 (13d): ±$5.21 (12.5%)
  • 2026-06-26 (21d): ±$6.61 (15.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term IV elevated (85+ on Jun12 calls), long-dated also high; contango with steep short-term volatility.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings expected crush ~20-30% from current levels (event 60 days out).

Skew: Put skew elevated at deep OTM strikes (e.g., $24 put IV 173%), reflecting tail risk hedging.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Avg move ~7% vs implied ~9%, slight overestimation.

Directional bias: Mixed, slight bullish bias post-earnings (60% beat rate).

Key Levels

1$30.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $37.74/$45.53
3Max pain pins: $40 (2026-06-05); $40 (2026-06-12); $33 (2026-06-18)

Flow Highlights

Unusual $47 call volume (19,501) vs OI 1,682, vol/OI 11.6, IV 83%.

Large bullish bet or hedging for upside; may indicate expectation of positive catalyst.

Put volume concentration at $44 (4,446) and $24 (16,022) strikes.

Hedging at elevated strikes and tail-risk insurance; suggests downside protection positioning.

Strategies

Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $40.00/$45.00 call spread
Debit: $1.82-$2.23
Max loss: $2.23
Max gain: $2.77
BE: $42.23
Trigger: Exit if $40 breaks or close before earnings.
Aligns with bullish flow and gamma pinning at $40, using earnings expiry for maximum edge.
Outperforms: Captures upside with defined risk, leveraging high confidence setup.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-06-12 $45.00 call / buy 2026-07-10 $46.00 call
Debit: $1.46-$1.78
Max loss: $1.78
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll if price near short strike; monitor IV.
Exploits elevated near-term IV and massive call volume, benefiting from time decay.
Outperforms: Sells higher IV front-month, buys lower IV back-month for volatility skew.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-08-21 $37.00 put + buy $46.00 call
Debit: $8.44-$10.31
Max loss: $10.31
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 26.69 / 56.31
Trigger: Hold through earnings; cut if IV collapses.
Captures expected 7% move with low cost OTM strikes; benefits from volatility expansion.
Outperforms: Non-directional play on large earnings move.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Put calendar
Sell 2026-06-12 $40.00 put / buy 2026-07-17 $40.00 put
Debit: $2.25-$2.75
Max loss: $2.75
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Elevated near-term put IV (80.4%) vs back-month (80.7%) contango; tail risk from deep OTM put buying
Outperforms: Sell rich near-term put vol, own back-month protection
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!VIX 21.5 macro volatility high; SPY -2.6%, QQQ -4.8% negative bias.
!Deep OTM put buying (6,000+ at $24) signals tail risk concerns.
!Gamma flip at $30 implies potential for sharp move below support.

What to Watch

?$40 support (max pain, gamma pinning).
?$46.84 resistance (call wall).
?Gamma flip at $30 (structural floor).
?Earnings Aug 4 as next catalyst.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 5, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.