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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $46.90EOD only
Max Pain
$40.50
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.73
3.7% from close
Price Gap
-6.40
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
50
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 4, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 4, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 4, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings in 61 days. Near-term IV elevated but not earnings-driven. Bullish flow with heavy call buying.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 15.8% from MP; +1 VIX 15
Most important: Heavy call volume on 6/12 $48.5-$52 strikes despite earnings far out.
🔥Unusual call volume on 6/12 $48.5 strike (75x OI) signals aggressive near-term bullish bet.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (61 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-05 (1d): ±$1.73 (3.7%)
  • 2026-06-12 (8d): ±$4.45 (9.5%)
  • 2026-06-18 (14d): ±$5.84 (12.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steeply upward sloping for near-term weekly expiries, elevated by high vol regime.

Crush estimate: Minimal near term, earnings not priced.

Skew: Put skew elevated but calls dominate flow.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A for this event. Historical beat rate 60% but moves not provided.

Directional bias: Bullish, based on flow and positive GEX.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $45.17/$48.64; 1w $42.45/$51.36
2Max pain pins: $40 (2026-06-05); $37 (2026-06-12); $33 (2026-06-18)

Flow Highlights

Massive call buying on 6/12 $48.5 and $51 strikes with vol/OI ratios 75x and 10x.

Aggressive bullish positioning near term, likely speculating on continued upward momentum.

Strategies

Bull call spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $45.00/$50.00 call spread
Debit: $1.87-$2.28
Max loss: $2.28
Max gain: $2.72
BE: $47.28
Trigger: Monitor spot near $50; close if invalidated below $41.07.
Aligned with bullish flow and earnings catalyst; defined risk.
Outperforms: Buy $45/$50 call spread for 08-21 expiry to capture directional move.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Long strangle
Buy 2026-08-21 $42.00 put + buy $50.00 call
Debit: $9.99-$12.21
Max loss: $12.21
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 29.79 / 62.21
Trigger: Hold through earnings; consider early exit if IV expands before event.
Captures volatility expansion from earnings with high premium income potential.
Outperforms: Buy OTM put and call for 08-21 expiry to profit from large move.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-06-12 $43.00 put + sell $50.00 call
Credit: $1.64-$2.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $2.00
BE: 41.00 / 52.00
Elevated near-term IV and bullish flow create rich premium for theta decay.
Outperforms: Sell near-term premium in high IV regime; no earnings catalyst.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings uncertainty 61 days out may lead to volatility.
!Spot 16% above max pain ($40) could pin lower.
!Call OI wall at $50-$60 may act as resistance.

What to Watch

?6/12 expiry call OI and price action near $48.5-$52.
?Spot relative to max pain $40.
?Any news catalyst ahead of earnings.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 4, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.