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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $35.58EOD only
Max Pain
$31.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.83
8.0% from close
Price Gap
-4.58
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
28
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.80
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Strong bullish flow and gamma pinning sustain upside bias. Earnings far off, but near-term activity suggests continued momentum.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 19.7% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Call OI wall $40-$50; put floor $20; net premium inflow $42.5M supports rally.
🟢Net premium $42.5M bullish; put/call vol ratio 0.23

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (70 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-29 (3d): ±$2.61 (7.0%)
  • 2026-06-05 (10d): ±$4.20 (11.3%)
  • 2026-06-12 (17d): ±$5.47 (14.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping: 3d ±7%, 10d ±11%, 17d ±15%

Crush estimate: Not applicable (no immediate event)

Skew: Put/Call OI ratio 0.80; calls dominate, bullish skew.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A

Directional bias: Bullish (60% beat rate, strong call flow)

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $34.49/$39.71; 1w $32.89/$41.30
2Max pain pins: $31 (2026-05-29); $30 (2026-06-05); $30 (2026-06-12)

Flow Highlights

Large call OI at $40-$50 strikes

Institutional bullish positioning targeting upside.

Unusual call volume at $40 (Jul 17) and $38 (May 29)

Speculative call buying ahead of potential catalysts.

Strategies

Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-06-05 $40.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $35.00 call
Debit: $4.09-$4.99
Max loss: $4.99
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll short call if spot approaches strike; adjust if IV spikes.
Leverages upward-sloping term structure and strong call flow; positive theta & vega flattening suits near-term momentum without event risk.
Outperforms: Sell short-dated call to collect theta, buy later-dated call for upside exposure. Benefits from bullish bias and volatility term structure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-26 $44.00/$50.00 call spread
Debit: $0.76-$0.93
Max loss: $0.93
Max gain: $5.07
BE: $44.93
Trigger: Exit at 50% max gain or if spot breaks below lower strike.
Direct bullish bet with defined risk; aligns with strong call flow and gamma pinning. 30-45 DTE provides good gamma near catalyst.
Outperforms: Buy lower strike call, sell higher strike call on same expiry. Captures upside without unlimited loss.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-06-05 $32.50 put + sell $42.00 call
Credit: $1.05-$1.28
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $1.28
BE: 31.22 / 43.28
Trigger: Close if spot nears either strike; add hedge if IV rises.
Range-bound high probability play but unlimited loss risk and neutral bias contradicts bullish flow. Suits only if range holds.
Outperforms: Sell out-of-the-money put and call to collect premium. Benefits from time decay and low volatility.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!High IV decay without catalyst
!Spot 20% above max pain ($31)
!Macro risk with VIX at 17

What to Watch

?Call OI build at $40-$50 levels
?Put support around $30 (gamma flip zone)
?Net premium flow continuation
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.