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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $33.46EOD only
Max Pain
$31.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.13
3.4% from close
Price Gap
-1.96
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
0.80
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Strong bullish flow and gamma pinning support near-term, but earnings 74 days out reduces urgency.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 13.0% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Unusual call buying in 5/29 expiry with vol/oi >200 indicates aggressive bullish positioning.
🐂Record call vol/oi on 5/29 $38.5 and $36.5 suggests institutional accumulation.
⚠️Spot 13% above max pain; pinning risk near-term but bullish flow dominates.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (74 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-29 (7d): ±$2.84 (8.0%)
  • 2026-06-05 (14d): ±$4.11 (11.6%)
  • 2026-06-12 (21d): ±$5.10 (14.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep front-end; 7d expected move 8% (~70% IV), 14d 11.6%, 21d 14.3%.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings crush likely 50-70% as event far; near-term options decay rapidly.

Skew: Puts cheap; put/call vol ratio 0.16, OI ratio 0.81, strong call bias.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Directional bias: Bullish: heavy call volume, gamma pinning above max pain, net premium positive.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 1w $32.75/$38.42
2Max pain pins: $32 (2026-05-22); $31 (2026-05-29); $30 (2026-06-05)

Flow Highlights

5/29 $38.5 call: vol 27161, OI 123, vol/oi 220.8

Aggressive bullish bets; likely institutional positioning.

5/29 $36.5 call: vol 28769, OI 441, vol/oi 65.2

Continued call accumulation at higher strikes.

Strategies

Iron Condor on SMCI
Sell 2026-05-29 $33.00/$31.00 put wing and $38.00/$40.00 call wing
Credit: $0.54-$0.67
Max loss: $1.33
Max gain: $0.67
BE: 32.33 / 38.67
Trigger: Exit at 50% max profit or before earnings.
Captures time decay and IV contraction near expiry; defined risk suits high IV environment.
Outperforms: Sell 33/38 strangle with wings, profit if stock stays between $31-$40.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call Calendar on SMCI
Sell 2026-05-29 $40.00 call / buy 2026-06-26 $40.00 call
Debit: $1.29-$1.57
Max loss: $1.57
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if front-month IV expands; roll if stock nears $40.
Benefits from time decay of front-month and low cost; bullish skew.
Outperforms: Sell May29 $40 call, buy Jun26 $40 call, profit if stock stays below $40.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings 74 days away; near-term gamma may pin but long-dated vega risk.
!Call wall $40-$50 could cap upside; low put OI means limited support below.

What to Watch

?Max pain shifts this week ($32→$31); 5/29 expiration; AI sector news.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.