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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $33.46EOD only
Max Pain
$31.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.13
3.4% from close
Price Gap
-1.96
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
0.80
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

SMCI far from earnings (75d) with high IV regime. Strong bullish flow but elevated put activity suggests hedging. Expect IV crush post-event.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Spot 3.8% above max pain ($32) with positive gamma pinning. Heavy put buying at $29 and $33 strikes indicates tail risk hedging.
🔻Put skew steep; $18 put IV 162% suggests extreme tail hedging.
📈Call OI wall at $36-$50, bullish sentiment but far.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (75 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (1d): ±$1.13 (3.4%)
  • 2026-05-29 (8d): ±$2.58 (7.7%)
  • 2026-06-05 (15d): ±$3.90 (11.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping, term IV elevated across expirations. 1d ±3.4% to 15d ±11.6%.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV crush likely 30-50% based on historical. Current IV elevated.

Skew: Put skew steep; deep OTM puts trading at 162% IV. Call OI concentrated at $36-$50.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 60% beat rate but average move slightly above expected, no strong bias.

Directional bias: Slight bullish bias due to beat rate >50%, but limited sample.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $32.33/$34.59; 1w $30.87/$36.04
2Max pain pins: $32 (2026-05-22); $30 (2026-05-29); $30 (2026-06-05)

Flow Highlights

SMCI 5/29 $29 Put: unusual volume 2312 vs OI 448 (5.2x), IV 69.9%

Aggressive put buying at $29, suggesting downside protection or bearish bet.

SMCI 5/22 $33 Put: volume 3934 vs OI 1708 (2.3x), ATM strike

Large ATM put activity near expiry, likely hedging.

Strategies

Iron Condor on SMCI
Sell 2026-05-29 $32.00/$28.50 put wing and $35.00/$38.00 call wing
Credit: $0.97-$1.18
Max loss: $2.32
Max gain: $1.18
BE: 30.82 / 36.18
Trigger: Monitor for earnings gap risk; adjust or close before Aug 4.
Only eligible candidate; high IV and upward term structure favor premium sales.
Outperforms: Sell put and call wings to collect premium with defined risk.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!High IV premium decay if held to earnings, but event far out.
!Spot 3.8% above max pain; gamma pinning may pull spot lower.
!Deep OTM put activity indicates tail risk sentiment.

What to Watch

?Earnings date Aug 4; monitor product announcements and analyst upgrades.
?Key support at $31.5, resistance at $33.5.
?Gamma flip levels: no strong put OI below $20.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.