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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $30.56EOD only
Max Pain
$31.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.02
6.6% from close
Price Gap
+0.44
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
0.83
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 19, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

SMCI pre-earnings 81d out. IV elevated, gamma pinning at $31. Mixed flow with heavy call buying at $32 and deep OTM put speculation at $20. Neutral-to-bullish bias from historical beat rate 60%.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Gamma pinning at $31 and call OI wall $35-$40 cap upside; downside protected by put floor $20 but $20 put spike warns of tail risk.
⚠️Deep OTM $20 put vol/oi 14.9x – speculative bearish bet 30% below spot.
📈$32 call volume 14k+ – bullish flow near resistance.
📌Gamma pinning at $31 – likely to hold near term.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
At

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (81 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (7d): ±$2.49 (8.0%)
  • 2026-05-29 (14d): ±$3.37 (10.9%)
  • 2026-06-05 (21d): ±$4.12 (13.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Pre-earnings ramp: 7d ±8.0%, 14d ±10.9%, 21d ±13.3%.

Crush estimate: Implied crush ~50-60% after event (81d out, near-term IV already elevated).

Skew: OTM puts elevated, $20 put IV 106%.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not provided; beat rate 60% suggests slight bullish surprise tendency.

Directional bias: Slight bullish bias historically.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 1w $28.56/$33.53
2Max pain pins: $31 (2026-05-15); $30 (2026-05-22); $30 (2026-05-29)

Flow Highlights

Heavy OTM put buying at $20 strike (14.9x vol/oi) – speculative bearish hedge or directional bet.

Indicates downside fear or tail risk positioning.

Large call volume at $32 strike (10.6x vol/oi) near current spot.

Bullish call buying targeting near-term resistance.

Strategies

Iron Condor on SMCI
Sell 2026-06-12 $28.50/$26.00 put wing and $35.50/$40.00 call wing
Credit: $1.16-$1.42
Max loss: $3.08
Max gain: $1.42
BE: 27.08 / 36.92
Trigger: Monitor spot near $31; exit if breach of $28.50 or $35.50. Close before earnings to avoid crush. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.; long_put: Wide spread (96%).; short_call: Wide spread (81%).
Only eligible strategy; elevated IV and gamma pinning support premium collection with defined risk.
Outperforms: Sell put wing at $28.50/$26 and call wing $35.50/$40 to capture time decay and IV crush, capped by call OI wall and put floor.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Downside risk: $20 put speculation suggests tail risk of sharp decline.
!Upside capped by call OI wall $35-$40; gamma pinning at $31 may limit near-term movement.
!Volatility crush post-earnings could punish options buyers.

What to Watch

?Spot reaction to $31 max pain and $32 resistance.
?Further unusual activity in $20 puts and $32 calls.
?Earnings date confirmation and any guidance shifts.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.