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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $29.18EOD only
Max Pain
$26.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.35
4.6% from close
Price Gap
-3.18
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
16
Low premium
P/C OI
0.84
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 22, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Neutral-to-cautious: high IV with call-heavy flow creating pinning pressure near $27–$29; limited directional edge given 50% historical beat rate.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19; override: Base 5 adjusted for spot proximity, GEX and VIX contributions per breakdown
Most important: Call concentration around $27–$29 plus net negative premium suggests dealer pinning risk into earnings.
📌Call-heavy flow concentrated at $27–$29 indicating pinning risk into earnings.
🔥Front-month and longer-dated IV extremely elevated; expect meaningful post-earnings IV compression.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
At
Gamma flip: ~$20.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,368 (25.2% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-05 (12 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (1d): ±$0.91 (3.4%)
  • 2026-05-01 (8d): ±$2.32 (8.7%)
  • 2026-05-08 (15d): ±$3.97 (14.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week IV elevated (~56–74%), longer-dated IV very high (May/Jun 84–176%).

Crush estimate: Moderate-to-large crush expected across front-month expiries.

Skew: Call-heavy skew into $27–$30 strikes; puts concentrated below $25.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 50% (2/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Past moves roughly in line with expected; 50% beat rate.

Directional bias: No clear historical directional bias.

Key Levels

1$20.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $25.84/$27.66; 1w $24.43/$29.07
3Max pain pins: $27 (2026-04-24); $25 (2026-05-01); $25 (2026-05-08)

Flow Highlights

Large call prints concentrated at $27–$29 for 2026-05-01.

Liquidity and dealer hedging likely to pin spot in that band pre-event.

Net premium strongly negative (-$10.8M) and high call OI wall $28–$40.

Market directional exposure skewed to upside calls; dealers short gamma above $27.

Strategies

Front-week iron condor
Sell 2026-05-01 $25.50/$24.50 put wing and $28.00/$29.00 call wing
Credit: $0.46-$0.57
Max loss: $0.43
Max gain: $0.57
BE: 24.93 / 28.57
Trigger: Close or widen if spot leaves $26–$30 band or IV collapses; trim before expiration if gamma risk rises.
High front IV + call OI concentrated near $27–$29 supports credit wings and pin capture with defined risk.
Outperforms: Sell 5/01 25.5/24.5 put wing and 28/29 call wing to collect credit while targeting $26–$30 pin band and front-week IV premium.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call diagonal (sell May, buy Jun)
Sell 2026-05-01 $28.50 call / buy 2026-05-29 $30.00 call
Debit: $1.00-$1.23
Max loss: $1.23
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll short leg out or up if IV gap narrows or spot tests 28–29; take profit on IV crush.
Exploits term-structure steepness and call OI to harvest front IV while keeping upside exposure.
Outperforms: Short 5/01 28.5 call, long 5/29 30 call to sell near-term IV and limit assignment risk while benefiting if move exceeds short strike.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-05-01 $25.50 put + sell $28.50 call
Credit: $1.05-$1.29
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $1.29
BE: 24.21 / 29.79
Trigger when front-month IV percentile>65 AND collected premium >=1.5% notional; price inside $26–30 and OI skew balanced (call/put OI within 25%).
Outperforms: Sell a balanced near-term strangle to collect front-month premium into earnings.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!High IV and potential for large post-earnings IV crush
!Pinning/gamma risk around $27–$29; gamma flip ~20% below spot
!Unusual call volume may amplify moves if earnings surprise

What to Watch

?Unusual 5/01 call prints (27–29 strikes) and change in OI
?Front-week IV moves (4/24 and 5/01 expiries)
?Spot action vs pin band $27–$29 and gamma flip level (~20% below spot)
?VIX and broad market (SPY/QQQ) direction into earnings
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.