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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $28.43EOD only
Max Pain
$25.50
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.69
6.0% from close
Price Gap
-2.93
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
11
Low premium
P/C OI
0.83
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 21, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Event priced with elevated IV; mixed signals between pinning and bearish flow—neutral leaning.

Confidence:
4 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 12.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19; override: mixed flow vs pinning; spot above midpoint reduces confidence
Most important: Pinning gamma vs sizable short-premium and deep put concentration ~28% below spot
⚠️High front-IV spike (4/24) — expect large crush risk.
📌Pinning signs: concentrated puts ~28% below spot and call OI wall $32–$40.
🔻Net premium -12.6M suggests dealer selling pressure.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$21.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,857 (28.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-05 (13 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (2d): ±$1.35 (4.6%)
  • 2026-05-01 (9d): ±$2.74 (9.4%)
  • 2026-05-08 (16d): ±$4.58 (15.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-dated IV spike (4/24) with steep term; mid-dated IV elevated versus spot.

Crush estimate: Moderate-to-large crush likely for 4/24 expiries; 5/01 crush sizable but attenuated.

Skew: Put skew concentrated below $27; call OI wall $32–$40

Historical Context

Beat rate: 50% (2/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical avg move roughly in line with expected; realized 1-day moves post-earnings median ~±6% vs expected ~6%

Directional bias: Beat rate 50% (2/4); 1-week post-earnings median return +0.3% and no persistent directional edge

Key Levels

1$21.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $27.84/$30.53; 1w $26.44/$31.93
3Max pain pins: $26 (2026-04-24); $25 (2026-05-01); $25 (2026-05-08)

Flow Highlights

Large unusual put prints at $26.50 (4/24) and $19 (5/01) with high vol/oi.

Shows downside hedging and tail protection interests near pin levels.

Net premium negative ~-12.6M and call OI wall $32-$40.

Dealer selling pressure and potential cap on upside

Strategies

Call diagonal (preferred)
Sell 2026-05-08 $28.50 call / buy 2026-06-18 $35.00 call
Credit: $0.73-$0.90
Max loss: $0.01
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Monitor 4/24–5/01 front IV; roll or close if spot > invalidation 24.6 or if front IV collapses early.
Captures front-date decay while retaining mid-date upside; limits downside loss.
Outperforms: Sell short front call into IV spike and hold longer-dated call to net positive theta vs deferred vega exposure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Long strangle (vol buy)
Buy 2026-05-15 $24.50 put + buy $32.50 call
Debit: $2.03-$2.49
Max loss: $2.49
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 22.01 / 34.99
Trigger: Trim or sell into IV pop; cut if post-crush realized move < expected and time decay accelerates. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
Pays to elevated front IV and pinning risk when expecting large move or asymmetry.
Outperforms: Buy asymmetric put/call to reduce cost while keeping directional optionality into earnings follow-through.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Short strangle (high risk)
Sell 2026-05-08 $26.50 put + sell $33.50 call
Credit: $1.80-$2.21
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $2.21
BE: 24.29 / 35.71
Trigger: Manage front gamma around 4/24; hedge or buy back if put concentration pushes spot toward short strikes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Collects rich premium but leaves unlimited upside and concentrated put tail risk.
Outperforms: Sell post-event wings to capture skewed premium; survival across crush is key.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!High IV with potential heavy post-event crush
!Pinning gamma can concentrate moves near strikes
!Spot above midpoint increases probability of downside reversion

What to Watch

?4/24 front expiry IV and trading at $26–$27 range
?Unusual print follow-through into 5/01 expiries
?Change in net premium and put concentration below spot
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.