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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $46.09EOD only
Max Pain
$33.50
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.46
5.3% from close
Price Gap
-12.59
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
99
High premium
P/C OI
0.72
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

SMCI shows a high-vol, pinning regime into earnings with dealers long gamma (GEX +$89.0M) concentrated around $23.50 and $24.00. Best strategy is selling defined premium (short iron/condor) into the pin range or buying a directional/binary upside spread if you need one-sided exposure. Key risk is a guidance-driven gap outside the EM guardrails ($22.23-$24.51) that would blow past dealer pinning and create large gap moves.

Confidence:
4 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict (mixed flow); +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.2% from MP
Most important: Dealer pinning at $23.50/$24.00 (GEX +$31.7M and +$24.7M) — if price moves away from those levels ahead of the print, gamma dynamics can flip fast.
📌Strong dealer pin at $23.50 (GEX +$31.7M) and $24.00 (GEX +$24.7M) — these are the most important micro-level anchors for option sellers ahead of earnings.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$20.00 — Gamma flip at ~$20 — below this dealers amplify moves; put OI concentration 30,490 (14.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-05 (TBD) (27 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-10 (2d): ±$1.14 (4.9%) [$22.23 - $24.51]
  • 2026-04-17 (9d): ±$2.22 (9.5%) [$21.15 - $25.60]
  • 2026-05-01 (23d): ±$3.75 (16.1%) [$19.62 - $27.13]

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-loaded IV spike: 2d ATM 82.0% -> 9d ATM 76.0% -> 23d ATM 80.8%; overall avg IV 87.4% indicates elevated baseline with a near-term kink.

Crush estimate: ~6-10 vol pts; expect IV to reprice toward the 76-81% band after the event (current ATM 82.0% on 2d vs 76.0% at 9d).

Skew: Short-dated puts/calls both rich but near-term puts show higher IV at lower strikes (e.g., $20 puts IV 115.6% on Apr-10 chain); P/C OI and volume ratios (0.81 / 0.72) show relatively heavier call OI but skew is mixed.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 50% (2/4 recent quarters: beats 2025-12-31 and 2025-03-31)

Avg move vs expected: Not available (no consistent realized move data provided), but EPS surprises are mixed with two small misses and two beats.

Directional bias: Neutral-to-mixed historically (no strong persistent gap direction).

Key Levels

1$23.50 pin (GEX +$31.7M)
2$24.00 pin (GEX +$24.7M)
3EM: $22.23 - $24.51 (2d expected move guardrails)

Flow Highlights

Heavy premium inflow into $26.00 calls (Top Premium Flow: $26.00 call net $1,509,804).

Market participants buying OTM upside exposure into the event (bullish skew / lottery buying) — pay attention to $26 strikes for upside flow.

Large call OI walls at $25.00 (40,783 OI) and $32.00 (52,885 OI).

Significant supply/hedging interest on the upside — these levels can act as resistance and curb a rally if post-earnings move is contained.

Strategies

Short iron condor (defined credit)
Apr-17 expiry: Sell 23.50P / Buy 21.50P, Sell 24.00C / Buy 26.00C
Credit: $0.65-$0.95
Max loss: $1.35
Max gain: $0.95
BE: ≈$22.85 - $24.85
Trigger: Enter 2-3 days before earnings if IV remains elevated and price is inside $23.50-$24.00 pins
High front-end IV and strong GEX pinning at 23.50/24.00 support premium selling with capped risk; sells near the concentrated dealer hedges.
Outperforms: Stock stays within EM guardrails ($22.23-$24.51) and dealers pin near $23.50-$24.00.
Underperforms: Guidance or surprise drives a gap > ~5% beyond EM, knocking price outside wings.
Long straddle (volatility capture)
Apr-17 expiry: Buy 23.00 straddle (buy 23.00C + 23.00P)
Debit: $2.10-$2.40
Max loss: $2.40
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: ≈$20.60 / $25.40
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings if IV has not already popped above current levels (>90%) or if you expect a >EM move.
Direct play on realized move; cost uses current near-term IV (ATM ~76-82%).
Outperforms: Actual post-earnings move exceeds EM by >30% (large beat/miss or guidance surprise).
Underperforms: Stock pins near $23.50-$24.00 and IV collapses post-print.
Directional bull call spread (asymmetric upside)
Apr-17 expiry: Buy 23.50C, Sell 26.00C (calendar: choose Apr-17 to capture event)
Debit: $0.40-$0.80
Max loss: $0.80
Max gain: $2.50
BE: ≈$23.90
Trigger: Enter into market-on-gap or just before if you expect upside surprise and want to limit IV crush exposure.
Buys upside with limited cost, leverages heavy call demand and OI wall at $25.00-$26.00 to the upside while capping IV/risk.
Outperforms: Modest-to-strong upside (move into $26 area) with limited downside if pin holds.
Underperforms: Stock stays flat or gaps down; large IV crush without price move.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM (2d) ±$1.14 (4.9%) but guidance can push a gap beyond EM; large gaps defeat pinning and kill credit strategies.
!IV crush: front-loaded IV (82.0% 2d ATM vs 76.0% 9d ATM) implies a meaningful post-print IV drop (~6-10 vol pts) that hurts long volatility positions.
!Liquidity: Chain is active (Total OI 2,134,014; volume 155,485) but some strikes have wide bid-ask; use limit fills and watch size at deep OTM strikes.
!Sizing: Given high IV and potential for >EM gaps, keep position sizes conservative (smaller notional for short premium trades) and use defined-risk structures where possible.
!Dealer dynamics: GEX concentrated at $23.50/$24.00 can mute moves intraday, but if price breaks away, gamma flip near ~$20 will accelerate moves.

What to Watch

?Price behavior around $23.50 and $24.00 into expiry (dealer pinning zones)
?IV trajectory into the event (if 2d IV >90% consider long strategies expensive)
?Unusual flow at $26.00-$30.00 calls (ongoing upside buying) and the $20 put cluster
?Pre-earnings prints or guidance leaks that would invalidate pinning dynamics
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 8, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.