thetaOwl
HomeOptionsSMCIReports

SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $41.64EOD only
Max Pain
$40.00
Next expiry Jun 12, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.90
9.3% from close
Price Gap
-1.64
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
55
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 5, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 5, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 21, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for June 5, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

Event priced for a large move (~10% 10d); mixed flow and GEX leave directional edge muted.

Confidence:
4.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 11.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20
Most important: Gamma pinning centered at $24–$26 from concentrated call and put OI, limiting upside despite call interest farther out.
⚠️Front expiries show >70% IV; expect material post-earnings crush
📌OI concentration at $24–$26 (calls+puts) implies pinning gamma there

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$20.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,374 (29.7% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-05 (14 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (3d): ±$1.70 (6.0%)
  • 2026-05-01 (10d): ±$2.95 (10.4%)
  • 2026-05-08 (17d): ±$4.44 (15.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front IV elevated (~70–130%); longer-dated >150%

Crush estimate: Large front‑expiry IV drop expected post-release

Skew: Put‑heavy skew below spot; concentrated call and put OI around $24–$26 (calls also present further OTM $30–$40).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 50% (2/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical realized moves roughly match implied; implied move already large

Directional bias: No clear bias historically (beat/miss split ~50/50)

Key Levels

1$20.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $26.74/$30.13; 1w $25.48/$31.38
3Max pain pins: $26 (2026-04-24); $24 (2026-05-01); $24 (2026-05-08)

Flow Highlights

Heavy option interest clustered at $24–$26 (both large calls and puts)

Net gamma/pinning risk concentrated at $24–$26, may cap/anchor price pre-expiry

Additional call OI further OTM $30–$40

Provides upside resistance if price reaches that region but less impact on near-term pinning

Strategies

Defined-risk iron condor around 25–30
Sell 2026-05-15 $25.00/$23.50 put wing and $30.00/$32.00 call wing
Credit: $0.73-$0.89
Max loss: $1.11
Max gain: $0.89
BE: 24.11 / 30.89
Trigger: Enter mid-entry; tighten/close if price breaches pin band or IV collapses after print. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (63%).
Balances selling rich front IV while respecting $24–$26 gamma pin.
Outperforms: Collect front-expiry premium with limited risk to survive post-crush moves tied to pinning.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call calendar to sell near-term call
Sell 2026-05-01 $31.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $31.00 call
Debit: $1.72-$2.10
Max loss: $2.10
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Scale into range, roll or close if stock rallies past 31 or front IV rapidly decays.
Leverages front-end IV steepness while retaining upside via back-month call.
Outperforms: Short near expiry 31 call, long Jun call to harvest time decay and term-structure spread.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short strangle sized and hedged
Sell 2026-05-08 $23.00 put + sell $30.00 call
Credit: $1.79-$2.19
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $2.19
BE: 20.81 / 32.19
Trigger: Limit size to a small % of capital (e.g., 1–2%); predefine hedge triggers (stock drop >8% or IV spike >+25%); buy protective puts or roll into wings immediately on large skew moves; close into IV crush.
SMCI shows elevated front IV with steep put skew into earnings; sell premium expecting post-print IV crush but protect from skew-driven downside jumps.
Outperforms: Sell near-termOTM call and put (e.g., ~10–15% OTM) sized small vs portfolio; use asymmetric hedges—buy a deeper OTM put or purchase a protective long-dated put to cap tail risk—or convert into an iron structure if downside accelerates.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!High IV implies large realized volatility risk
!Guidance/FCF or margin commentary can drive outsized moves vs expectations
!Elevated short interest could exacerbate moves and intraday squeezes
!Wider bid/ask and lower pre/post-earnings liquidity increase execution and gap risk
!Mixed flow/GEX reduces clear directional conviction

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into print and front‑expiry crush size
?Price action and gamma around $24–$26 (pin level)
?Guidance, FCF, margin commentary and any structural surprises
?Short interest/volume and quoted liquidity pre/post release
?Unusual trades or rapid GEX shifts pre-open
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.