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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $33.46EOD only
Max Pain
$30.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.92
5.7% from close
Price Gap
-2.96
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
8
Low premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

SMCI earnings 76d away; IV elevated with steep term structure. Flow shows heavy put activity near $33-$34 for near-term expiries, suggesting hedging. Historical beat rate 60% but limited data. Confidence high due to strong GEX/flow alignment.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 9.7% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Unusual put volumes at $33 and $34 strikes for 2d expiry indicate short-term hedging; earnings event far out but IV reflects uncertainty.
⚠️Heavy put activity at $33-$34 for 2d expiry; potential hedging ahead of any news.
📈Call buying at $35.5 and $37.5 indicates bullish sentiment above spot.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (76 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (2d): ±$1.91 (5.7%)
  • 2026-05-29 (9d): ±$3.20 (9.6%)
  • 2026-06-05 (16d): ±$4.08 (12.2%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep: 2d ±5.7%, 9d ±9.6%, 16d ±12.2%; earnings Aug 4 likely higher.

Crush estimate: Expected 50-70% post-earnings, but far out so less immediate.

Skew: Negative skew near-term: puts bid up at $33-$34 vs calls.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Limited data (5 quarters); avg move not reliable.

Directional bias: Slightly bullish given 60% beat rate but insufficient.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $31.54/$35.37; 1w $30.26/$36.66
2Max pain pins: $30 (2026-05-22); $30 (2026-05-29); $30 (2026-06-05)

Flow Highlights

Large put buys at $33.5, $34, $33, $32.5 for 2d expiry.

Short-term hedging or bearish bets; high vol/oi ratios suggest new positions.

Call buying at $35.5 (2d) and $37.5 (9d).

Bullish speculation on upside breakout.

Strategies

Neutral Premium Collection
Sell 2026-05-29 $32.00/$30.00 put wing and $35.00/$38.00 call wing
Credit: $1.03-$1.25
Max loss: $1.75
Max gain: $1.25
BE: 30.75 / 36.25
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain if IV contracts; tighten stops on breach of wings.
Steep near-term IV allows rich credit; defined risk suits uncertain earnings.
Outperforms: Sells put and call wings to profit from time decay and IV contraction.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Front-Month IV Decay
Sell 2026-05-29 $35.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $35.00 call
Debit: $2.18-$2.67
Max loss: $2.67
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if front-month IV contracts to back-month; roll on directional shift.
Near-term IV elevated vs back-month; sell front volatility to buy time.
Outperforms: Collects premium from near-term IV decline while maintaining longer exposure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings far out: long vega exposure may decay.
!Gamma risk near-term from max pain $30; spot at $33.45.
!Unusual put flow could indicate downside concerns.

What to Watch

?Max pain $30 for all near-term expiries.
?Call OI wall $36-$50; put floor $20.
?Spot vs EM guardrails: 2d $31.54-$35.37.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.