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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $30.56EOD only
Max Pain
$31.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.02
6.6% from close
Price Gap
+0.44
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
0.83
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

SMCI shows strong bullish flow and gamma pinning, but flow is not directly tied to Aug earnings due to expiration disconnect.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Unusual aggressive call buying in May 2026 expirations (8x vol/OI on $32.5C) signals directional bullish bias but options expire after the earnings event.
🚨Aggressive call buying: $32.5C 8x vol/OI – bullish but not earnings-linked
📊Gamma pinning at $31 – potential cap on upside
📈Net premium positive: $1.03M – flow supportive

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (77 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (3d): ±$2.02 (6.6%)
  • 2026-05-29 (10d): ±$3.04 (9.9%)
  • 2026-06-05 (17d): ±$3.84 (12.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-term IV elevated (~80%), back-month slightly lower; 2d expected move 6.6% vs 9.4% vol suggests some premium.

Crush estimate: Earnings far out (77d); crush not applicable yet. Near-term crush minimal as these are weekly options.

Skew: Call skew elevated; heavy call OI in $34-$40, puts light below $20.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Beat rate 60% (3/5 quarters) but sample small. Implied moves currently moderate.

Directional bias: Slightly bullish bias based on flow and gamma pinning, but flow not directly tied to Aug earnings.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $28.54/$32.58; 1w $27.52/$33.60
2Max pain pins: $31 (2026-05-22); $30 (2026-05-29); $30 (2026-06-05)

Flow Highlights

SMCI 2026-05-22 $32.50 Call: 9596 vol vs 1193 OI, 8.0x ratio.

Aggressive new long call positioning; options expire after Aug earnings, not tied to event.

SMCI 2026-05-22 $31 Call: 4647 vol vs 1958 OI, 2.4x ratio.

Continued buying at $31 strike, aligning with max pain pin at $31; same expiration offset.

Strategies

Short Strangle
Sell 2026-05-29 $27.00 put + sell $34.00 call
Credit: $0.71-$0.86
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $0.86
BE: 26.14 / 34.86
Trigger: Close if break $26 or $35.
Elevated IV, max pain pinning, liquidity pass – most viable.
Outperforms: Sell $27 put / $34 call on May 29 expiry to capture high IV.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-05-29 $28.00/$25.00 put wing and $34.00/$37.00 call wing
Credit: $0.61-$0.74
Max loss: $2.26
Max gain: $0.74
BE: 27.26 / 34.74
Trigger: Adjust wings if spot moves beyond $29-$33. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (187%).; long_call: Wide spread (71%).
Range-bound around max pain with high IV, but liquidity concern.
Outperforms: Sell $28/$25 put wing and $34/$37 call wing on May 29.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-05-29 $33.00 call / buy 2026-06-26 $36.00 call
Debit: $0.49-$0.59
Max loss: $0.59
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if spot > $32.5 or time decay accelerates. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (51%).
Bullish flow supports call bias, but liquidity fail and theta decay mismatch.
Outperforms: Short $33 call / long $36 call on May/Jun expiry for volatility skew.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings 77 days away: near-term positioning may not persist.
!Flow is for later expiration, not directly tied to earnings event.
!Max pain at $31 may pin price, but also creates resistance.

What to Watch

?Continued call flow at $30-$32.5 strikes.
?Spot approaching resistance $31-$32.
?Any put accumulation for hedging.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.